A slight doubt on Vauquelin because of the crash in AGR. Ineos and UAE should be able to boss the lead-out into the last Mur. And that is where Godon might burn his matches. Valentin should be good, but I'm a bit doubtful on the lead-out. 2/2
#LFW26
🚴♂️La Flèche Wallonne ME🚴♂️
Vauquelin to win 8.50 1/5
Cosnefroy to win 17 0.5/5
V. Paret-Peintre T10 2.75 1.5/5
A.W. Philipsen T10 6.00 1/5
Costiou to beat Godon 2.00 3/5
Scaroni to beat Aranburu 2.20 2/5
Other teams will ask a lot from Decathlon. Will they be able to control the race? 1/2
#LFW26
🚴Amstel Gold Race ME🚴
Remco to win 2.50 2/5
Vauquelin to beat Schmid 1.78 3/5
Gilmore to beat Godon 2.62 2/5
L'Hote to beat Remjin 1.57 3/5
Got Remco early with nice odds, but the stake could have been bigger. The 1.88 you get now is borderline value. Kevin as Ineos captain.
#AGR26
🚴♂️Season betting summary after Paris-Roubaix🚴♂️
Bets: 123 pcs
Stakes: 196.8 u
Return: 169.43 u
Profit: -27.37 u
ROI: -13.91%
The 71 bets after beginning of Paris-Nice have cost me 36.60 u's. A disastrous period. This equals 18.3 % of my bankroll. About a time to get the shit together again🤠
#Cycling
H2H:
van Aert > Pedersen 1.90 2/5
Hoole > Segaert 2.10 2/5
van Moer > T.Kopecky 2.10 3/5
G. Vermeersch > Bissegger 1.88 3/5
Atrociousness of the race might unfortunately be too much for Mads in these circumstances. 3/3
#ParisRoubaix
Top-10
Tarling 9.00 1.5/5
Pithie 3.75 1.5/5
Stuyven 2.25 2/5
Tarling had a good training session on getting early breaks in P-N. Now it's time to implement it on the biggest stage. He was super strong in 2024 before getting DSQ. 2/3
#ParisRoubaix
🚴♂️Paris-Roubaix ME🚴♂️
MVDP to win 2.62 3/5
How could Pogi drop him without mechanicals? I see the teamwork and Florian's role the key here. So many things should anyway go their way that it makes it unlikely. 1/3
#ParisRoubaix
🚴♂️Itzulia - Stage 6🚴♂️
To win:
Izagirre 21 0.25/5
J.P. Lopez 80 0.25/5
Velasco 101 0.1/5
J.P. Lopez to beat Fortunato 1.83 3/5
Let's give Yoda Ion the perfect farewell for his home race🍻 Velasco has been hiding all race🥷El Patron should be more fresh than Fortunato after yesterday🤠
#Itzulia
🚴♂️Itzulia - Stage 5🚴♂️
Seixas to win 2.50 4/5
I.Izagirre to win 17 0.25/5 (drifted since)
Ok then young Skywalker, may the force be with you. Yoda Ion as a very likeable back-up.
#Itzulia
🚴♂️Itzulia - Stage 4🚴♂️
Stage win:
Healy 10 1/5
Vauquelin 15 0.5/5
Scaroni 29 0.25/5
Vansevenant 126 0.2/5
Ridiculously bad streak just goes on and on. Let the bingo gods be on our side today.
#Itzulia
🚴♂️Itzulia - Stage 3🚴♂️
Healy to win 19 0.5/5
Aranburu to win 15 0.5/5
Aranburu to beat Bagioli 1.83 3/5
Well, the suspense for GC didn't last long. Time to fill the bingo cards. Healy and Aranburu most tempting ones, but several other good ones as well.
#Itzulia
🚴♂️Itzulia - Stage 2🚴♂️
Del Toro to win 3.50 1.5/5
Scaroni to beat McNulty 1.83 2/5
Seixas and del Toro crossing the Aralar climb together and both commiting until the finish. The last km with multiple bends, which makes overtaking tricky. More in ⚖️ with these two than the odds suggest.
#Itzulia
🚴♂️Itzulia GC🚴♂️
Del Toro to win 3.25 2/5
Voisard to beat Cras 1.72 2/5
Stage 1:
Seixas to beat Ayuso 2.10 2/5
Fisher-Black to beat Soler 1.83 2/5
Intriguing battle between future GC superstars. Ayuso still a ❓️ after the crash in P-N. Del 🐃 wins with the help of the stroger team.
#Itzulia
🚴♂️Volta a Catalunya - Stage 4🚴♂️
Godon to win 2.50 2/5
Cort to win 17 0.5/5
I. Oliveira to win 81 0.2/5
Same old, same old🔄 Hopefully the weather doesn't affect the stages on the weekend.
#VoltaCatalunya105
Decent result yesterday, but once again quite far from winning. Maybe he is adequate third/fourth sprinter for SOQ. Is there any other role in the table for him? Development to act as a lead-out maybe?
🚴♂️Volta a Catalunya Stage 3🚴♂️
Godon to win 5.00 1/5
Cort to win 15 0.5/5
Oliveira to win 81 0.2/5
L'Hote e/w 201 0.2/5
Kockelmann to beat Hobbs 2.75 1.5/5
Darder to beat Stites 1.57 3/5
Yesterdays top candidates. As a Decathlon DS, I'd send one of the youngsters into breakaway
#VoltaCatalunya105
🚴♂️Volta a Catalunya - Stage 2🚴♂️
Vernon to win 2.75 2/5
Pickrell to beat Dainese 2.75 1.5/5
Stewart started his lead-out about 300m too early yesterday😅Maybe they'll get it a bit better today.
Dainese has had a treadful start to the season. Let see if it continues.
#VoltaCatalunya105
Today's stage with the usual uphill grind. Vernon was 9th in UAE stage 1, which was harder. Cross-headwind makes the timing even more important. NSN has the best team for nailing it. Gilmore as their 2nd option. Could reverse lead-out be on the table?
#VoltaCatalunya105
🚴♂️Volta a Catalunya🚴♂️
GC
Jonas to win 2.00 3/5
Almeida to beat Remco 1.96 2/5
Lipo to beat Uijtdebroeks 1.50 4/5
Stage 1
Vernon to win 8.00 1/5
Gilmore to win 34 0.5/5
Intriguing week. RB should go with Remco and Lipo as equal dual leaders. In that case Lipo's odds are tempting
#VoltaCatalunya105
Then thing get really complicated. But, in a group like this, UAE is probably the only one with two cards to play. But will that be enough to beat MVDP? I doubt it. He was so composed last year. 5/5
#MSR
Christen will take over next and reduce the group even further. Then it's Del Toro's turn to deliver the final acceleration before Pogi attacks, if he even needs to. If a group of 5-6 remain after Del Toro's effort, they should hold the tempo and reach the coastal road with that group. 4/5
#MSR
The bunch will thin out, and keeping the dropped riders from returning is crucial. UAE can't commit more riders, but other teams will help once the lead-out to Cipressa starts. McNulty should still have something left, and should be able to take control early on Cipressa. 3/5
#MSR
My couch scenario from UAE perspective is:
Vermeersch and Novak rides the first 230 km, supported by Alpecin and Ineos, just like last year. On the Capi's the turn shifts gradually to Grossschartner and McNulty, who will hit Capo Berta at full force. Something new compared to last year. 2/5
#MSR
🚴Milan - Sanremo ME🚴
MVDP to win 2.50 2/5
Vendrame T10 3.75 1.5/5
Laporte T10 4.00 1.5/5
Lund T10 2.50 2/5
Pluimers T10 9.00 1/5
The 2nd group has multiple versatile sprinters in it.
Ganna to beat van Aert 1.87 3/5
Pithie to beat Kubis 1.66 3/5
The favorite race of all the couch DS's. 1/5
#MSR
And it might have prevented VLAB take more control in the bunch, which again might had an effect for the gap in the end🧠
Suomifutiksen lutuista arkea toiseksi korkeimmalta sarjatasolta. Jätskikiskalla liikevaihto reippaaseen kasvuun🤑
Arvaa seura.
#Suomifutis
Toivottavasti saadaan myös selkeä protesti aikaan liiton puuhastelusta Albania ja San Marino otteluissa.
A small correction:
One bet was refunded with a stake of 0.25 u, so the season total ROI is -13.17u.
🚴♂️Paris-Nice Betting summary🚴♂️
Bets: 28 pcs
Stakes: 35.9 u
Return: 13.25 u
Profit: -22.65 u
ROI: -63.1%
Absolute catastrophe💀
Season summary:
Bets: 80 pcs
Stakes: 130.4 u
Return: 116.98 u
Profit: -13.42 u
ROI: -10.3 %
So long the good start for the season👋
#Cycling #Betting
🚴♂️Paris-Nice Stage 8🚴♂️
To win:
VPP 7.44 1/5
Rondel 67 0.2/5
Moderate headwind in the start makes this more difficult to predict. Col de la Porte with nice tailwind should speed things up. The number of Visma guys after the ascent will likely determine if the attackers have a chance.
#ParisNice