A) @sardell.bsky.social gets extremely close every year - he’s the gold standard and B) @notmrtibbs.com and team find a super high percentage of public votes. There are diminishing returns from other forecasting methods at this point. I’ll probably bang my head against the wall again in 2027 though!
Almost!
Let us all make sure we give thanks for the amazing work from @notmrtibbs.com and his team during HOF SZN.
Very excited for the HOF to gain two new members tonight! Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social whose model crushed mine this year - I'll be making some tweaks for 2027!
5% of the vote
Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones to the HOF!
Final projection for tonight. Excited to see who joins the HOF! @notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social
Thanks to you all!
Played for every team in the NL West. Immaculate Grid players IYKYK
Of course, right when I was "feeling better" about the model I found 2 material busts this morning 🤦. Pettitte jumps up to 50.9%, Buerhle up to 20.2%.
I love when there is drama on announcement day!
Feeling better about my model as more votes roll in. Small but meaningful upward adjustment for Andruw Jones from my last projection. Just one week before the announcement! Thanks as always to @notmrtibbs.com, @shutthedore.bsky.social, and @tonycal.bsky.social.
Weird year for Abreu. He's doing fantastic with the new voters but not flipping no voters at a high enough rate to stay above 35% overall when it is all said and done IMO. Time will tell!
Pettitte will be a fascinating case for a Veteran’s Committee
Would not be shocked
Gonna be super close! My gut says he squeaks in
Matt has been coming for @sardell.bsky.social's HOF Projections crown for a couple of years now and has done nice work. In fact, last year Matt narrowly beat Jason's predictions going by RMSE, though Jason still had the lowest average and median error. Here are Matt's latest projections for 2026:
I'm definitely struggling projecting this year more than ever due to the influx of new voters. Taking a stab here after 123 votes recorded in the tracker. Thanks again to @notmrtibbs.com and the Tracker Team! Will likely wait until ~175-200 votes before next update as I'll be out of town for a bit.
@notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social I am NOT confident in the model. 1) It is super early with just 71 votes so far 2) LOTS of new voters this year. Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux, Anthony Calamis and Adam Dore. Next update around ~125 votes. Flame away!
By a hair, @mwwdean.bsky.social had the best #HOF predictions this year (going by RMSE)! However, career GOAT @sardell.bsky.social had the lowest average & median error.
Thank you! I started doing this 3-4 years ago because of your model. It's the gold standard for sure.
Yeah primarily a flip rate model
I'm a Houston guy so maybe it was subconscious!
My image attaching skills need some work! For those of you confused as to where Ichiro and CC Sabathia are you have to click on the image to see all the names. I promise to get better next year
What can I say I'm bad at photoshop lol!
I give Beltran a "controversy" flag which perhaps penalizes him amongst private voters more than your model. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out!
I use comps and weight it fairly heavily for new guys. It's clunky and subjective but I find it helps when there is a solid comp. Sabathia and Halladay are almost perfect comps (IMO) and Halladay had a decent size drop after public ballots in 2019
@notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social There may be a few straggler ballots coming but this is as good a time as any to post final predictions for the MLB Hall of Fame. Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his team for all the hard work. Makes it so much fun!
Exciting day as we all wait for the MLB Hall of Fame announcement! I'll post final projection at 5:30 EST.
@notmrtibbs.com Here are my MLB Hall of Fame Projections through 152 public ballots