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Posts by Matthew D. Stephen

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The Strait of Hormuz Blockade, but we add OUR blockade.

1 week ago 1057 185 70 16
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1 week ago 12689 3750 12 46
But a constitutional system is only as effective as the people who believe in it. You can write the constitution down in one place, as the Americans do, or have it hidden away all over the place, as we do. None of that matters. All that really matters is that people behave according to the social and moral norms it establishes. People must believe it to be true, or it is only paper. In the US, they ceased to believe it is true long ago. That is why the legislature, which lacks all self-confidence, refuses to stand up to him. It is why the judiciary, whose supreme body he partly appointed, does not restrain him. It is why the press, which is subject to its own institutional pathologies, is unable to meaningfully hold him to account.

But a constitutional system is only as effective as the people who believe in it. You can write the constitution down in one place, as the Americans do, or have it hidden away all over the place, as we do. None of that matters. All that really matters is that people behave according to the social and moral norms it establishes. People must believe it to be true, or it is only paper. In the US, they ceased to believe it is true long ago. That is why the legislature, which lacks all self-confidence, refuses to stand up to him. It is why the judiciary, whose supreme body he partly appointed, does not restrain him. It is why the press, which is subject to its own institutional pathologies, is unable to meaningfully hold him to account.

"All that really matters is that people behave according to the social and moral norms [a country's constitution] establishes. People must believe it to be true, or it is only paper."

Spot on (and a nice 'Discuss' essay question quote) by @iandunt.bsky.social iandunt.substack.com/p/the-mad-em...

3 weeks ago 15 6 1 1

Kind of amazing to be on the timeline where limiting women's sports to women causes so many people to lose their minds 🤯

3 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

"The speed with which American democracy is currently dismantled is unprecedented in modern
history." (p. 5)

1 month ago 1 3 0 0

They’re telling me a great empire will be destroyed if I attack Persia. Even the oracles who don’t like me very much, very nasty, they all said to me, “Sir, it’s one of the great empires, and it’ll be destroyed. And all because you attacked Persia.” That’s what they’re telling me.

1 month ago 20474 3710 335 170
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Trump warns Nato faces 'very bad' future if allies do not help secure Strait of Hormuz The US president says he is speaking to several countries about

Trump asking for NATO members, whom he does not need, to bail him out of his war, which is very complete and a complete victory, is 👌

www.bbc.com/news/live/cx...

1 month ago 27 10 2 2

Fuel more unnecessary killing and ???

1 month ago 97 38 4 0

"Hopefully China will deploy warships to the Persian Gulf." - the US president.

What a time to be alive.

1 month ago 106 15 5 5
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they're gonna spend $50B re-opening the Strait of Hormuz over the next 6 months and then act like it's this huge victory when they only thing they accomplished was restoring the pre-war status quo

1 month ago 1523 337 54 12
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Never related to a meme harder than I do with this one right now

1 month ago 3821 1141 20 86
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War over law: Europe’s unforced errors over the use of force in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Some European leaders’ comments are going even further than overlooking the unlawful nature of the war—and could open the door to a further weakening of the non

yes fully agree

ecfr.eu/article/war-...

1 month ago 0 2 0 0
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Trump Surprised To Find He's At War in Iran Once his not-even-half-baked plan failed to materialize in Iran, it’s clear that there’s no Plan B.

Donald Trump is surprised at how poorly the Iran War is going — but the news media is covering all of this uncertainty and sham-handedness as if it’s all part and parcel of a normal conflict. Every article needs to start leading with: Trump is lost at sea.
www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/trump-surp...

1 month ago 1116 383 34 36
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Weaponise EU market against China or face manufacturing collapse: official think tank Beijing’s ‘weakness creates opportunities’ for bloc to use chokepoints and leverage for negotiations, researchers say.

1/6
SCMP: "The European Union has been urged by the EU’s official think tank to weaponise its giant market to draw concessions from China, whose economic fragility is making it increasingly reliant on rich export markets."
sc.mp/npa0i?utm_so...

1 month ago 21 9 1 0

China probably hopes that the US again becomes bogged down in a long conflict with Iran, but its strategic plans are usually not based on hope. 1/7

1 month ago 25 8 1 4

Sánchez: “You may have heard that Spain is alone. They’re the same people who said that when we recognized the State of Palestine, and then others followed.

“We are not alone — we are the first. Those who will end up alone are the ones defending the indefensible.”

1 month ago 2760 752 25 60
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Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli

It would be strategic lunacy for Europe to support the US/Israeli war on Iran. It is an illegal war that comes with huge costs: regional spillover, higher energy costs, helping Putin in Ukraine. It risks drawing Europe into a new regime change quagmire
ecfr.eu/article/stra...

1 month ago 120 48 3 14
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Closing Azeri and/or Georgian, Armenian airspace would be a huge blow to European and Asian travel economies… it’s really quite the bottleneck between long-haul Europe and Asian air routes now.

1 month ago 26 8 1 2
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Aus gegebenem Anlass

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

Nice contrast to Friedrich Merz who couldn't wait to offer up Sanchez as human sacrifice

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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1 month ago 13 1 0 0
When pressed on his plans for a transition of power, Mr. Trump said he hoped Iran’s elite military forces — including hardened officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who have held substantial influence and profited from the existing regime — would simply turn over their weapons to the Iranian populace.

“They would really surrender to the people, if you think about it,” he said.

It was those same security forces — in particular, the Basij, which organizes local militia — that opened fire on street protesters in January and killed thousands.

When pressed on his plans for a transition of power, Mr. Trump said he hoped Iran’s elite military forces — including hardened officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who have held substantial influence and profited from the existing regime — would simply turn over their weapons to the Iranian populace. “They would really surrender to the people, if you think about it,” he said. It was those same security forces — in particular, the Basij, which organizes local militia — that opened fire on street protesters in January and killed thousands.

Peace president has visions for peace

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/u...

1 month ago 9 4 0 1

They don't say this publicly of course. I heard Wadepfuhl on the radio this morning and his basic message was an indirect "IL sure but also realpolitik"

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

One (generous) interpretation would be that they have drawn the conclusion that if no one else feels constrained by international law, why should they? If we think of IL as cooperation, once one side defects, continuing to cooperate would only result in the sucker's payoff.

1 month ago 1 0 1 0
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US-Israel war on Iran live: Israel launches new wave of attacks ‘in the heart of Tehran’ after death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Sirens in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv as Iran retaliates in strikes that also hit across Middle East region

IDF on social media:
"And then I did this crime, and then I did this crime, and then I..."

US-Israel war on Iran live: Israel launches new wave of attacks ‘in the heart of Tehran’ after death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
www.theguardian.com/us-news/live...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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More likely they will frame it as "defending Israel" from the Iranian response

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

illegal use of force by every measure, domestic & international

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Wtf is this supposed to actually communicate? "Other largely landlocked seas such as... California?

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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I don't always write policy relevant, but when I do, it's

www.ips-journal.eu/topics/forei...

Together with Steven Langendonk

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