What is the future of GCAP?
Read as FASI's Arun Dawson & Dr David Jordan explore the complexity of GCAP’s ambitions in the latest edition of #BigAsk
Via @congeostrategy.bsky.social
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🌍 ‘Despite 🇪🇺 considerable funding initiatives, cooperation with partners outside the union remains an attractive option,’ writes @gesineweber.bsky.social, @ethz.ch
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🌍 ‘The most plausible future for #GCAP is not unlimited enlargement, but a stable core of the current partners combined with carefully staged forms of external participation,’ says Rena Sasaki, @jhu.edu
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💡 ‘Whatever the long-term success of #GCAP, uncertainty over cost, timetables, and project management will persist for the foreseeable future,’ writes @lanoszka.bsky.social, our International Fellow
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‘🇯🇵 has concerns about introducing new partners, and it is not hard to see why. While diversification may increase funding for research and development, there are risks,’ argues Dr David Jordan FRAeS FRHistS FRSA, @fasikcl.bsky.social
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🛩️ ‘The bleeding edge of technology should sit in the supporting systems with which #GCAP will integrate, be they weapons, decoys, or jammers: software-defined, autonomous systems,’ says Wg. Cdr. Ben Goodwin MBE, our Adjunct Fellow
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💡 ‘However appealing they may make the economics, additional partners risk diluting the programme’s current strengths: alignment of strategic intent and a pragmatic approach to collaboration,’ says Arun Dawson, @warstudieskcl.bsky.social
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✈️ ‘The trajectory that could secure #GCAP’s future growth would be a tiered expansion model, in which partners such as 🇵🇱 are integrated into high-value industrial chains,’ writes Dr Przemysław Biskup, Polish Institute of International Affairs
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What is the future of #GCAP?
We asked 8 experts in today’s #BigAsk
✍️ Dr Przemysław Biskup, Arun Dawson, Wg. Cdr. Ben Goodwin MBE, AM (rtd.) Sir Christopher Harper KBE FRAeS, @davidjair.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, Rena Sasaki, @gesineweber.bsky.social
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📝 ‘No modern 🇬🇧 strategy document was as well thought-out as the Integrated Review. Equally, no modern 🇬🇧 strategy document has become so rapidly obsolete,’ writes Dr Marc De Vore, our Adjunct Fellow
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📢 ‘Both the Conservative and Labour governments have been strong on slogans...but weak on strategy and clear guidance,’ writes Charles Parton OBE, Chief Adviser to our China Observatory
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‘If the #IndoPacific is to remain a genuine pillar rather than an afterthought, 🇬🇧 should prove that the #CSG2025 was a stepping stone to sustained operational engagement, not just a curtain call,’ says Gray Sergeant, our Research Fellow
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💡 ‘The Integrated Review was a revolutionary document...It challenged the post-Cold War complacency and flawed assumptions of successive governments,’ says @james-rogers.bsky.social, our Co-founder (Research)
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✍️ ‘Since the Integrated Review was published, 🇬🇧 has taken a retrograde step, does not exhibit foresight, and does not have a coherent national strategy,’ argues Dr Rob Johnson, our Honorary Fellow
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What has the Integrated Review achieved five years after publication?
We asked 5 experts in today’s #BigAsk
✍️ Dr Rob Johnson, Charles Parton OBE, @james-rogers.bsky.social, Gray Sergeant, Dr Marc De Vore
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💭 ‘There is little in Macron’s speech at Île Longue that promises significant increased capacity. However, the conceptual component of deterrence has been altered for the better – and I would say better for 🇬🇧 too,’ says @edstringer.bsky.social, Policy Exchange
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‘🇬🇧 deterrent continues to play an important complementary role, while 🇫🇷 is adding a more explicitly European dimension to the overall deterrence debate,’ says Linas Kojala, @gssc-lt.bsky.social
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💡 ‘The fact remains, however, that 🇫🇷 can engage in a political-strategic initiative of a kind that 🇬🇧 currently cannot,’ says Dr Jan Ruzicka, @aberuni.bsky.social
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✍️ ‘This doctrinal evolution and the coordination of 🇬🇧 and 🇫🇷 deterrents will provide a solid foundation for a European security and defence architecture in the face of adversaries, particularly 🇷🇺,’ says @m514ever.bsky.social, @frstrategie.bsky.social
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🗣️ ‘The procurement of the next generation of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) dominates the defence budget without a public rationale like that of 🇫🇷,’ writes Prof. Sir Hew Strachan FBA FRSE, @uniofstandrews.bsky.social
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💡 ‘Macron’s proposals...should be a moment for 🇬🇧 to rethink its own approach to nuclear deterrence, including the question of its dependence on 🇺🇸,’ writes @henninghoff.bsky.social, @ipq.bsky.social
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⚓ ‘Faslane and Île Longue are very close to one another, and the maritime approaches to one bear directly on the security of the other,’ writes Julien Lalanne de Saint-Quentin, our Adjunct Fellow
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🚨 ‘In some ways, 🇫🇷 forward deterrence may even undermine the defence of Europe for the simple reason that it is so ambiguous,’ writes @james-rogers.bsky.social, our Co-founder (Research)
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☂️ ‘By creating a unified joint European nuclear umbrella with 🇫🇷...🇬🇧 and its allies can hedge against the worst possibility of a complete reduction of 🇺🇸 deterrence,’ argues @philippelefevre.bsky.social, @cbesurrey.bsky.social
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How will 🇫🇷 shift in nuclear doctrine affect 🇬🇧?
@henninghoff.bsky.social, Linas Kojala, @philippelefevre.bsky.social, @m514ever.bsky.social, @james-rogers.bsky.social, Dr Jan Ruzicka, Julien Lalanne de Saint-Quentin, Prof. Sir Hew Strachan, AM (rtd.) Ed Stringer CB CBE
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❓ ‘The question becomes less about being tough towards 🇮🇷, and more about the challenge to remain firm in policy as the requirement for defensive (and offensive) activity mounts,’ notes Dr Louise Kettle, @uniofnottingham.bsky.social
www.britainsworld.or...
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‘Reducing 🇮🇷 capacity to support 🇷🇺 can only benefit 🇬🇧 in its pursuit of its primary European security concern; ensuring 🇺🇦 attains peace via military capabilities and meaningful security guarantees,’ writes Prof. Richard Whitman, @kent.ac.uk
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‘Deciding after the fact to deploy 🇬🇧 forces to defend Cyprus and sail HMS Dragon to the region...only reinforces that Sir Keir’s original decision was ill-considered and politically costly,’ argues @joshuachuminski.bsky.social, Centre for the Study of Presidency & Congress
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🌐 ‘Escalating tensions with 🇮🇷 could expose 🇬🇧 military assets abroad to retaliation and increase the risk of entanglement in a wider Middle Eastern conflict,’ notes Dr Marina Miron, King’s College London
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🪖 ‘Sir Keir’s response to Operation EPIC FURY has been appropriate and entirely understandable. The 🇬🇧 Armed Forces are already stretched, and it makes little strategic sense to extend them further,’ argues @warmatters.bsky.social, Swedish Defence University
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