Original post on social.mitexleo.one

Bangladesh is moving in the wrong direction.

What happened at Bangladesh Bank today is not just a routine reshuffle — it’s a signal. And not a reassuring one.

Appointing a garment industrialist, currently a BGMEA standing committee chair, as central bank governor raises an obvious conflict of […]

India cenbank seen holding rates, but US tariffs raise odds of cut By Swati Bhat and Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI (Reuters) -India’s central bank is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but the odds of another cut have risen after the United States slapped steep tariffs on Indian exports last week, adding to pressure on growth even as inflation stays subdued. A large majority of economists, or 44 of 57, in a July 18–24 Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of India (NSE:BOI)’s monetary policy committee (MPC) to hold the repo rate at 5.50% on August 6. However, sentiment has shifted following the tariff announcement. "Even without that tariff announcement, a case could be made for a 25 basis point rate cut. The 25% tariff rate is an added growth shock," ANZ Research said, adding that both growth and inflation are likely to undershoot the RBI’s forecasts. The RBI delivered a larger-than-expected 50bp cut in June and shifted its stance to "neutral", signalling that further moves would depend on incoming data. India’s manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in 16 months in July, with the HSBC-S&P Global PMI rising to 59.1. But business confidence fell to a three-year low, with firms citing competitive pressures and inflation concerns — a sign that underlying demand may be softening. India’s annual retail inflation slowed to a more than six-year low of 2.10% in June, near the lower end of the central bank’s tolerance band, as food prices continued to ease. Inflation is seen falling to a record low in July. "While this backdrop is conducive for further monetary easing, we believe it is not yet compelling enough to deliver a fourth straight rate cut and exhaust the policy arsenal," said Aastha Gudwani, India chief economist at Barclays. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said last month the central bank had won the battle against inflation but the war was ongoing, and future policy decisions would be guided by the outlook for growth and inflation rather than current levels. Nomura also said the bar for an August cut is high after the June easing and stance shift, though it raised the probability of a cut to 35% from 10% earlier. "Neither bonds nor the swaps market is pricing in a rate cut on Wednesday, and if it happens, we could actually see a rally. Currently the base case is a dovish commentary and a pause on rates," a trader at a state-run bank said. Traders are also awaiting the announcement of a revised liquidity framework, which may come alongside the policy. With BOI making headlines, savvy investors are asking: Is it truly valued fairly? In a market full of overpriced darlings, identifying true value can be challenging. InvestingPro's advanced AI algorithms have analyzed BOI alongside thousands of other stocks to uncover hidden gems. These undervalued stocks, potentially including BOI, could offer substantial returns as the market corrects. In 2024 alone, our AI identified several undervalued stocks that later surged by 30 or more. Is BOI poised for similar growth? Don't miss the opportunity to find out.

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India cenbank may deliver third straight rate cut as inflation undershoots MUMBAI (Reuters) - India’s central bank is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive rate cut on Friday as muted inflation provides ample space to focus on boosting economic growth further. A strong majority of economists, 53 of 61, in a Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of India (NSE:BOI)’s monetary policy committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate to 5.75%. Two respondents see a cut of 50 basis points and the remaining six expect no change. "Despite no pressing need for a third successive rate cut on June 6, we expect the MPC to cut - an opportunistic move amid the lower-than-expected inflation outcome and outlook, and retain the stance as ’accommodative’," Barclays economists wrote in a note. "The RBI may be tempted to lower inflation forecasts, but it may be prudent not to," they added. Retail inflation has slowed faster than expected and dropped to a near 6-year low of 3.16% in April. The RBI expects it to average around 4% during the year but many economists expect it to be lower. On the growth front, India’s GDP surged 7.4% in the March quarter, much faster than forecasts and driven by construction and manufacturing. Full year growth for 2025 financial year that ended in March is estimated at 6.5% and the RBI expects the pace to be retained in fiscal 2026, though the outlook faces challenges given a global slowdown and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff uncertainties. "RBI’s estimate of neutral real rates is between 1.4% and 1.9%. In an environment of softer global growth, the neutral real rate is likely to be closer to 1.4%," IDFC First Bank (NASDAQ:FRBA) chief economist Gaura Sen Gupta wrote. "The risk of overheating of the economy remains low with persistence of a negative output gap as indicated by persistently low core inflation and low current account deficit," she added. Economists and traders expect the RBI to continue focusing on enhancing monetary transmission by keeping system liquidity in a surplus. Since January, the RBI has infused nearly $100 billion into the banking system. "Apart from 25 bps cut in repo rate, there could be some probability of widening of the corridor to 50-basis between repo and SDF (standing deposit facility) rate," said Gopal Tripathi, head of treasury and capital markets at Jana Small Finance Bank. A sharp fall in India’s treasury bill yields indicates that the central bank could widen the policy rate corridor at its meeting, five bond traders said last week. Indian lenders have also urged the central bank to revert to overnight liquidity management operations and sought easier cash reserve requirements, four sources familiar with the matter said.

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Turkish cenbank keeps inflation forecast at 24%, ready to tighten if needed By Nevzat Devranoglu and Ezgi Erkoyun ISTANBUL (Reuters) -Turkey’s central bank left its year-end inflation forecast unchanged at 24% on Thursday but Governor Fatih Karahan said it is ready to tighten policy if inflation worsens, after having pivoted to raising interest rates last month. Presenting the bank’s quarterly inflation report in Istanbul, Karahan said steps taken by the bank had hindered a serious deterioration in inflation expectations and that the fall in inflation would continue in the rest of 2025. Last month, the bank tightened its policy rate by 350 basis points and set the lending rate at 49% in response to market turmoil that erupted in March over the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival. In Thursday’s report, the central bank kept its year-end inflation mid-point forecast at 24% while leaving its end-2026 projection unchanged at 12% and end-2027 inflation at 8%. The central bank commonly adjusts its end-year inflation forecast, and last left it unchanged in August last year. The lira, which had weakened sharply after the mayor’s arrest, was at 38.85 against the dollar on Thursday as the inflation briefing continued - firmer than its close of 38.8835 on Wednesday. "We will be always ready to tighten our monetary policy stance in case we foresee a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation," Karahan said at the briefing. He said the outlook shows that the tight stance in policy should continue and the bank will take necessary precautions if demand conditions impact the inflation outlook negatively. Inflation risks are upward right now and the bank has the flexibility to set its funding rate above the policy rate with its tools, he said, noting that the recent tightening came when the bank was in a cutting cycle, so the impact would be higher. Karahan added that a slowdown in economic growth would be more evident due to the tightening and this would support disinflation. Before the latest rate hike, the central bank had begun an easing cycle and cut its policy rate to 42.5% as inflation fell from the level of more than 75% reached in May 2024. The market turbulence triggered in March by Imamoglu’s arrest on corruption charges - which he denies - also drained central bank reserves and caused sharp foreign outflows, notably in the bond market. But inflows have since resumed and the central bank returned to being a buyer of forex this month, purchasing billions of forex in a rebound after nearly two months of declines in which it had sold $57 billion since mid-March.

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Sri Lanka cenbank cuts rate by 25 bps in surprise move to foster growth Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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Turkish cenbank surprises with rate hike to 46% after market turmoil ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey’s central bank hiked its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 46% on Thursday, in a surprise move that reversed an easing cycle and slightly boosted the lira, following market volatility in the wake of last month’s arrest of Istanbul’s mayor. The bank also lifted its overnight lending rate again, to 49% from 46%, after having already raised it last month in an unscheduled decision following the arrest. In addition, the overnight borrowing rate was lifted to 44.5% from 41%, underlining the hawkish reversal in monetary policy. "Monthly core goods inflation is expected to rise slightly in April due to recent developments in financial markets," the central bank’s policy committee said in releasing the decision. Leading indicators suggest domestic demand is above projections, "suggesting a lower disinflationary impact," it said. "Inflation expectations and pricing behaviour continue to pose risks to the disinflation process," the bank said, adding it would tighten further "in case a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation is foreseen." The central bank had begun easing in December, when the rate was 50%, after an aggressive tightening effort since mid-2023 to bring down years of soaring prices and a series of currency crashes. In a Reuters poll, ten of 13 respondents forecast the bank would maintain its one-week repo rate while three predicted a hike of up to 350 basis points. Most respondents expected the overnight lending rate would be held at 46%. The lira strengthened slightly right after the decision and traded at 38.10 to the U.S. dollar, while the benchmark stock index BIST 100 and banking index pared back some of its gains during the day. Last month, the currency briefly hit a record low of 42 and stocks and bonds plunged after the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, pushing economic authorities to take several measures to ease the market fallout. Economists expect the roughly 3% weakening of the lira to lift April and May inflation readings. Annual inflation had slowed to 38.1% in March, and was 2.46% month-on-month, lower than forecast. Imamoglu - President Erdogan’s chief rival - is now jailed pending trial in legal moves that sparked the biggest protests in more than a decade and broad criticism of a politicised judiciary and eroding rule of law, claims the government denies. The lira steadied near 38 to the dollar and Turkish assets recovered somewhat after the central bank sold some $50 billion since Imamoglu’s arrest to stabilise the situation, and it bought some 120 billion lira ($3.15 billion) worth of bonds. The central bank also raised its overnight lending rate by two percentage points to 46% and paused funding through one-week repo auctions, effectively tightening funding conditions by 400 basis points. On Thursday the bank said it will closely monitor liquidity conditions and added: "In response to the recent developments in financial markets, additional measures to support the monetary transmission mechanism were quickly put in place." The rate decision came amid global market turmoil caused by what has become an all-out trade war between the United States and China, with both sides ratcheting up their import tariffs. ($1 = 38.1429 liras)

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China cenbank says it supports sovereign wealth fund stepping in to support stocks Published 04/07/2025, 09:06 PM Updated 04/07/2025, 09:11 PM 0 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, is pictured in Beijing, China, February 3, 2020. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s central bank said on Tuesday it supported sovereign wealth fund Central Huijin Investment increasing its holdings in stock market index funds. The People’s Bank of China would provide re-lending support to Central Huijin Investment, a unit of China Investment Corp, when necessary to maintain the smooth operation of the capital market, it added in a statement. On Monday, Huijin intervened to support domestic stocks that had plunged on U.S. tariff woes. 0 Latest comments

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Italy cenbank to pay state 644 million euros despite 2024 loss of 7.3 billion ROME (Reuters) - The Bank of Italy will pay around 644 million euros ($697.65 million) into state coffers despite posting a 2024 gross loss of 7.3 billion euros due to the European Central Bank’s restrictive monetary policy, governor Fabio Panetta said on Monday. The Bank of Italy’s financial results announced by Panetta showed a net profit of 844 million euros, of which 200 million will be paid in dividends to its shareholders made up of banks, insurers and other financial institutions. Profit for the state is 644 million euros, up 29 million from 2023, Panetta said. The bank’s financial result excluding taxes was a loss of 7.3 billion euros, which was covered thanks to 5.8 billion euros taken from its risk management fund and to tax-related adjustments. In 2023 it registered a similar pre-tax loss of 7.1 billion euros. Explaining the drivers of the 2024 loss, Panetta said high ECB rates led to an increase in the remuneration of liabilities - mainly banks’ deposits. This was not matched by a corresponding increase in the return on monetary policy assets. With interest rates having been on a downward path since last June, the Bank of Italy expects a positive result this year, Panetta said. ($1 = 0.9231 euros)

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The Binimoy app, which allows users to transfer money seamlessly between different bank and MFS accounts, was linked to a shell company associated with Sajeeb Wazed Joy.

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