For some time now, my #EPseatprojection has featured on @table.media. In the future, I will also be writing a regular column there, commenting on current EU politics and polity developments.
The first article focuses on national vetoes in the Council – and the effort required to bypass them:
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
Silver lining for left-wing parties: For the first time since the #EP2024 election, none of the three left-of-centre groups are losing seats in the #EPseatprojection.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are suffering a severe setback. And a Bulgarian newcomer party is on the rise.
By MANUEL MÜLLER
Currently, 🔵EPP is leading the polls in 12 EU member states, followed by:
🟤PfE and 🔴S&D (4 each),
⚫ECR (3),
🟡RE (2),
🟠ESN and 🟣Left (1 each).
The 🟢Greens/EFA are close second in one member state (Denmark).
#EPseatprojection
#EPseatprojection, largest delegation from each MS:
🇩🇪🟠AfD, 23 seats
🇫🇷🟤RN 34
🇮🇹⚫FdI 26
🇪🇸🔵PP 21
🇵🇱🔵KO 18
🇷🇴⚫AUR 14
🇳🇱🟡D66 7
🇧🇪⚫N-VA 4
🇨🇿🟤ANO 8
🇬🇷🔵ND 7
🇭🇺🟤Fidesz/🔵Tisza 10
🇵🇹🔵AD 7
🇸🇪🔴S 7
🇦🇹🟤FPÖ 8
🇧🇬🔵GERB 5
🇩🇰🔴S/🟢SF 3
🇸🇰🟡PS 4
🇫🇮🔴SDP 4
🇮🇪🟣SF 6
🇭🇷🔵HDZ 5
🇱🇹🔵TS-LKD 3
🇱🇻🔵JV/🟤LPV 2
🇸🇮🔵SDS 4
🇪🇪🔵I/🟡KE 2
🇨🇾🔵DISY 2
🇱🇺🔵CSV 2
🇲🇹🔴PL/🔵PN 3
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
In the latest #EPseatprojection, the far-right camp has lost some ground for the second time in a row. Is this already a trend reversal or just a statistical blip?
By MANUEL MÜLLER
A little end-of-year thread with the ten most-read blog posts in English of 2025 (excluding #EPseatprojection and continuously updated articles)
🧵
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
The European Liberals scored a victory in the Dutch parliamentary elections in October. But this isn't a democratic turnaround yet: In the new #EPseatprojection, the democratic camp is stalling, while the far right is becoming even more radicalised.
By MANUEL MÜLLER
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
The European Parliament's summer recess is over – a chance for a fresh start for the von der Leyen coalition?
In any case, the trends in the #EPseatprojection have not changed over the summer. The centre continues to lose ground, the left and the far right continue to gain.
By MANUEL MÜLLER
The vote of censure against #vonderLeyen has failed - but for how much longer will the EPP-S&D-RE majority in the European Parliament last?
ICYMI, here is last week's #EPseatprojection, based on polls from all member states 👇
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
So far, the success of the "von der Leyen coalition" of EPP, S&D and RE is only a question of political will – the majorities in the Parliament are certainly there.
But for how much longer? The new #EPseatprojection does not bode well for the political groups in the centre.
By MANUEL MÜLLER
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
Since Donald Trump took office, right-wing parties have suffered spectacular electoral defeats in Canada and Australia. In Europe, meanwhile, the far right continues to gain ground, setting polling record after polling record.
New #EPseatprojection by MANUEL MÜLLER
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
Strongest individual parties if EP elections were held today:
🇫🇷🟤 RN, 33 seats
🇮🇹🔵 FdI, 24 seats
🇩🇪⚫️ CDU/CSU, 24 seats
🇪🇸⚫️ PP, 22 seats
🇩🇪🟠 AfD, 20 seats
🇵🇱⚫️ KO, 19 seats
🇪🇸🔴 PSOE, 19 seats
🇮🇹🔴 PD, 19 seats
🇵🇱🔵 PiS, 17 seats
🇫🇷🟡 RE, 14 seats
🇩🇪🔴 SPD, 14 seats
#LePen
#EPseatprojection
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
(And it doesn't look good.)
If the European Parliament were to be elected now, each of the three far-right groups (ECR, PfE, ESN) would do better than in 2024, whereas each of the four centrist groups (EPP, S&D, RE, G/EFA) would lose seats.
The new #EPseatprojection by MANUEL MÜLLER
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
#EUsky
The new #EPseatprojection is out.
And for once, it is not the far-right parties that are on the rise.
For Europe's far-right parties, the last few weeks and months have seemed to be all about the upturn. In the new #EPseatprojection, however, their results are mixed at best.
The Left and the Greens, on the other hand, are making gains.
By MANUEL MÜLLER
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
A little end-of-year thread with the ten most-read blog posts in English of 2024 (excluding #EPseatprojection and continuously updated articles such as the #EP2024 roadmap)
🧵
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
2024 was a difficult year for the centre-left and brought new record highs for the far-right camp.
And that also applies to the last #EPseatprojection: While the S&D falls behind, the PfE reaches the symbolic 100-seat mark for the first time.
By MANUEL MÜLLER
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
#EUsky
The new #EPseatprojection is out!
Four months after the #EP2024 the rise of the far right continues – both in national elections and in the EU-wide seat projection.
By MANUEL MÜLLER
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
#EPseatprojection
The first #EPseatprojection after the #EP2024 election is out!
By MANUEL MÜLLER
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
Cheat sheet update, now based on 17 countries:
Far-right performing pretty badly compared to last opinion polls / #EPseatprojection, e.g. in 🇷🇴 🇳🇱🇵🇹 🇸🇪 🇫🇮.
Greens also a bit weaker, EPP and RE stronger than expected.
Cheat sheet update: Liberals still doing well compared to final #EPseatprojection, Greens and ID slightly weaker than expected.
(Based on estimates from 12 member states.)
