In many ways, this work only begins to scratch the surface of what is needed to robustly evaluate land-based CDR....

... and to end this #ESM2025research series of posts on our latest research highlight about land-based carbon dioxide removal, what's ahead?
🧵👇

Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in current carbon stocks are even larger than those related to how these stocks may respond to future climate change...

Want to know more?
👀Check out our latest research highlight on land-based carbon dioxide removal: bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research

The biggest wild card for land-based mitigation might not be future response of carbon stocks to climate change — but today’s carbon stock densities. Small shifts within their plausible range flip land-use emissions from slightly net-negative to +60 GtCO₂ by 2050.

#ESM2025research

In the process of exploring ways to integrate carbon stock dynamics into the ESM-IAM modelling framework...
💡...a case of scientific serendipity emerged, giving rise to an entirely new line of research that had not been previously explored!

🧵👇(1/7)

#ESM2025research

🌡️🌿The models also showed that the land's ability to store carbon may weaken over time, especially in warmer and drier conditions.

➡️This could make it harder to meet climate goals if too much reliance is placed on land-based removals.

#ESM2025research
(3/4)

🔎 Want to know how our worked contributed to answer to this hard question?

Check out our latest research highlight:
"Can We Count on the Land? Exploring the Uncertainty of Land-based Mitigation Strategies" 👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy

#ESM2025research

Check out our latest highlight on how we worked on the assessment of climate impacts of land-based CDR across three angles:
🔄Carbon cycle changes
🌳Impacts on local climate, agriculture and hydrology
📉The Socio-economic dimension: uncertainty and risks
👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy

#ESM2025research

Can we really count on land to deliver climate mitigation?

Our new highlight unpacks what AR/BECCS can do — and where uncertainties bite (carbon stocks, permanence, local climate effects).

Full story → bit.ly/4qMYPEy

#CDR #ESM2025research
@euclimateaction.bsky.social

Want to know how we're advancing #ClimateModelling by bridging the gap between Earth system & Integrated assessment models?

Check out our latest Research Highlight 👉
bit.ly/RH_ESM-IA

with researchers Gabriel Abrahão, Thomas Gasser & @benmsanderson.bsky.social

#ESM2025research

From Earth System Models to Integrated Assessment Models: Bridging the Gap in Climate Modelling The links between Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models (including the role of Simple Climate Models) that shape one of the main frameworks used for producing the data that feed IPCC assessments.

Curious to learn more about the streams and how we’re advancing climate modelling?

Check out the full details: bit.ly/RH_ESM-IAM

#EarthSystemModels #IntegratedAssessmentModels #ESM2025research #ClimateResearch #ClimateResearchNet

16/16

Have you heard of physical inconsistencies in our state-of-the-art climate modelling chain (used e.g. in @ipcc.bsky.social assessments)?

Let's take a look at the current modelling framework for Earth system & Integrated assessment models (ESM—IAM framework) 🧵👇

1/16
#ESM2025research

A variety of different tomatos.

🌍🍅 In ESM2025, we're all about models! Let's kick off our talk here by revisiting our X thread about the variety of models we work with.

🌐These include Earth System Models, Simple Climate Models, and Integrated Assessment Models — each plays a critical role.🧵👇1/9

#ESM2025research