The EU’s climate advisory board has urged countries to prepare for +3 ºC of global warming.
How will our world change as it gets hotter?
[Photos dipicting flooding, extreme heat and drought]
Sources include the IPCC, WWF and UN research.
Editors’ note: Predicting the future is not an exact science, and there is naturally some disparity in climate modeling. I have used conservative estimates, and erred on the side of optimism.
+2–3 ºC
Note: Every half degree of warming leads to lower crop yields and lower nutritional content
• 170% increase in flood risk
• Major increase in extreme weather events and the spread of infectious diseases
• A third of the global population are exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years, leading to a major increase in heat-related morbidity and mortality
• Significant impacts on vulnerable ecosystems such as polar regions, wetlands, cloud forests and mangroves.
• 18% of insects, 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates are at risk
• Virtually all coral reefs are lost by 2100
• Significant impact on low altitude fisheries
• 410 million urban residents exposed to severe drought by 2100
• 49 million people impacted by sea level rise — the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and other small island nations have been abandoned
+3–4 ºC
Note: Every half degree of warming leads to lower crop yields and lower nutritional content
• Major impacts on all ecosystems and a significant increase in species extinctions
• Some cities are below sea level, including Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Miami and The Hague
• Food and water security have become major political and humanitarian issues, leading to widespread conflict
• Major decrease in agricultural and fishery production, and available freshwater resources
• The majority of mountain glaciers are lost, and the Arctic is completely free of sea ice in summer — Arctic temperatures increase by 8 ºC
• Ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks reduce, accelerating climate change
• Food and water insecurity have led to forced mass migrations
[Photo showing mass migration during WW2]
+4–5 ºC
Note: Every half degree of warming leads to lower crop yields and lower nutritional content
• Catastrophic loss of ecosystems and species worldwide
• The melting of ice sheets in the Antarctic and Greenland causes significant sea level rises
• 20% of the worlds population are affected by flooding, and coastal cities have been abandoned
• In many countries, Summer temperatures are consistently above 40 ºC, and heat waves as high as 50 ºC have become common
• Over 3.5 billion people are now water stressed
• Wildfires have created major air pollution and a human health crisis
• Global food production plummets leading to widespread malnutrition and starvation
• Environmental forced mass migrations increase, along with increased conflict over resources
Climate scientists speak of feeling overwhelmed and depressed. In a survey of IPCC scientists, 77% said they believe we are heading towards a rise of 2.5 ºC.
Now the EU is warning us to prepare for +3 ºC.
But what will this look like?
#ESD #Sustainability #GreenSky #ClimateChange