Oscars Best Actor breakdown: Why Adrien Brody is still the frontrunner (but barely) in the ultimate two-man race
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<p>Since the nominations were announced on Jan. 23, the Oscar <a data-tag="best-actor" href="https://www.goldderby.com/t/best-actor/" id="auto-tag_best-actor">Best Actor</a> race had narrowed into a two-man battle between a pair of two-time nominees: <strong><a data-tag="adrien-brody" href="https://www.goldderby.com/t/adrien-brody/" id="auto-tag_adrien-brody">Adrien Brody</a></strong> of <em>The Brutalist </em>(who won his first time out) and <strong><a data-tag="timothee-chalamet" href="https://www.goldderby.com/t/timothee-chalamet/" id="auto-tag_timothee-chalamet">Timothée Chalamet</a> </strong>of <em>A Complete Unknown </em>(who didn’t). It would be a significant upset if either of these actors didn’t cart off the trophy. But shockers happen, as Brody himself knows all too well. If that happens, three other nominees are hoping to pounce:<strong> <a data-tag="ralph-fiennes" href="https://www.goldderby.com/t/ralph-fiennes/" id="auto-tag_ralph-fiennes">Ralph Fiennes</a></strong> for <em>Conclave</em>, <strong>Colman Domingo</strong> for <em>Sing Sing</em>, and <strong>Sebastian Stan </strong>for <em>The Apprentice</em>.</p>
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<p>Let’s analyze the Best Actor contest in greater depth.</p>
<h2>The Frontrunner: Adrien Brody</h2>
<p>Before diving into Brody’s <em>Brutalist</em> bona fides, let’s climb into the way-back machine to look at the actor’s upset win in the category in 2003 for <em>The Pianist</em>. How big a shocker was it? Huge. While Brody had been nominated for a BAFTA, a Golden Globe, and a SAG Award, it was no less than <strong>Daniel Day-Lewis,</strong> who had been dominating awards season for <em>Gangs of New York</em>. Day-Lewis won BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, and New York Film Critics Circle honors, and his triumph at the Oscars was considered a foregone conclusion. Day-Lewis, after all, had already won in 1990 for <em>My Left Foot —</em> which would turn out to be his first of three — and was considered an actor’s actor even then.</p>
<p>A distant second choice that year was three-time winner <strong>Jack Nicholson</strong> for <em>About Schmidt</em>. <span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px">Previous Oscar winners <strong>Nicolas Cage</strong> and two-time winner <strong>Michael Caine </strong>were also nominated</span>. Brody was a mere first-time nominee who had been blanked in the precursors and was, in most predictions, the fifth choice. When <strong>Halle Berry</strong> opened the envelope from the stage and uttered Brody’s name, there was a moment of near-surreal disbelief as he became the youngest-ever Best Actor winner at 29 (breaking the record of 30-year-old <strong>Richard Dreyfuss</strong> for <em>The Goodbye Girl </em>in 1978).</p>
<p>There will be no such surprise this year if Brody claims the gold. He is, after all, the frontrunner, a brand new experience for him. He won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, and was the first choice of the New York Film Critics Circle, along with nominations at BAFTA and SAG. He’s looking to run the table as the star of a 10-time nominee in <em>The Brutalist</em>, a film in which he’s featured in practically every frame. He won for one Holocaust drama 22 years ago and is looking to make it two for two. As Globes host <strong>Nikki Glaser</strong> quipped, “Hey, it’s two-time Holocaust survivor Adrien Brody.” Indeed.</p>
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<p><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px">Brody also has some intangibles going for him. In <em>The Brutalist</em>, he plays a Hungarian architect who immigrates to the United States after being imprisoned in a death camp during World War II. Immigration is a divisive issue in the United States, pushed by a president who is not beloved by the industry. This could help sway Motion Picture Academy members who side with immigrants, including a not-insignificant international contingent. And if there’s a <em>Brutalist </em>sweep, Brody could be carried along in that wave.</span></p>
<p>Brody also can lean into a comeback narrative, which can be irresistible for voters. Between his Oscar bids are two decades of mostly modest character roles, and colorful though they often were (<em>Midnight in Paris, The Grand Budapest Hotel</em>), they are hardly the stuff that befits A-list talent. Brody seemed to acknowledge this in his Golden Globe acceptance speech in January: “There was a time not too long ago that I felt this may never be a moment afforded to me again, so thank you.”</p>
<p>But there are some potential speed bumps. Voters might remember how he aggressively kissed Berry onstage while accepting his Oscar two decades back, which might not endear him to Academy members in the post-#MeToo era. There might also been some backlash after the editor of <em>The Brutalist </em>revealed that Brody and costar <strong>Felicity Jones</strong>‘s Hungarian-language performance was enhanced using AI. Speaking to <em>The Hollywood Reporter</em>, veteran Emmy-winning producer <strong>Stan Brooks</strong> called it a non-controversy, reasoning, “We have been doing this exact same thing in editing suites, sound edit rooms, and mixing stages for as long as I can remember.”</p>
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<p>Brody’s director, <strong>Brady Corbet</strong>, has also suggested this is a non-issue. “The idea that this diminishes their performance in any way is quite silly — because that’s like saying that using a body double or a stunt double in a wide shot diminishes an actor’s performance because they didn’t actually do the stunt. They still had to do all the work, and [the AI] was only ever used with the Hungarian voice-over. Specifically, there is zero dialogue in English where we use the technology, period,” the filmmaker <a href="https://variety.com/2025/film/news/adrien-brody-oscars-the-brutalist-interview-1236295356/">said</a> to <em>Variety</em>.</p>
<h2>The Potential Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet</h2>
<p>Chalamet is 29, the same age as Adrien Brody when he won his Oscar for <em>The Pianist</em>. Should Chalamet win, he would dethrone Brody as the youngest-ever Best Actor victor by a matter of months. Chalamet also has momentum, with <em>A Complete Unknown</em>‘s candidacy peaking at precisely the right time.</p>
<p>Chalamet appears to be closing in on becoming a Best Actor co-favorite for several reasons. First, the Academy has a soft spot for actors who portray real-life legendary musicians and singers. Over the past 20 years, three of them have won statuettes: <strong>Jamie Foxx</strong> for playing <strong>Ray Charles</strong> in <em>Ray </em>(2005), <strong>Rami Malek</strong> for playing <strong>Freddie Mercury</strong> in <em>Bohemian Rhapsody</em> (2019), and <strong>Renée Zellweger</strong> for portraying <strong>Judy Garland</strong> in <em>Judy</em> (2020). Of course, they often lose as well: see <strong>Austin Butler</strong>‘s defeat for his portrayal of <strong>Elvis Presley</strong> in <em>Elvis</em> (2023) and <strong>Bradley Cooper’s</strong> last year as <strong>Leonard Bernstein</strong> in <em>Maestro</em>. <strong>Taron Egerton</strong> wasn’t even nominated for his portrayal of <strong>Elton John</strong> in <em>Rocketman</em> (2020).</p>
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<p>Chalamet’s <strong>Bob Dylan </strong>biopic is the first film in Academy Awards history to have three actors Oscar-nominated for playing musicians, with <strong>Edward Norton</strong> as <strong>Pete Seeger</strong> and <strong>Monica Barbaro</strong> as<strong> Joan Baez</strong>. While Chalamet lost the Globe for drama actor to Brody and failed to win at the Critics Choice Awards, Chalamet is nominated for BAFTA and SAG and has yet to lose an industry award to the frontrunning star. His Gold Derby odds have been increasing over the past several weeks with the help of a flawless campaign from Searchlight Pictures.</p>
<p>Searchlight sponsored a Chalamet lookalike contest in New York in October that went viral. The studio had him hosting <em>SNL </em>on Jan. 25 and, in a canny bit of marketing, also served as the night’s musical guest as the second coming of Dylan. While he may be under 30, the actor is the furthest thing from a complete unknown, Oscar-nominated once previously for <em>Call Me by Your Name </em>in 2018 and earning awards attention for <em>Beautiful Boy </em>and <em>Wonka</em>. He’s a certified superstar in the making and is also endearing to younger audiences in a way that Brody is not.</p>
<h2>The Underdogs: Ralph Fiennes, Colman Domingo, Sebastian Stan</h2>
<p>No one in this category has a more distinguished acting pedigree than Fiennes. He starred in a pair of Best Picture winners (<em>The English Patient </em>and <em>Schindler’s List</em>) that took home 16 Oscars between them. That’s not to <span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px">mention four-time nominee <em>Quiz Show </em>and all </span>those <em>Harry Potter </em>movies. He’s been nominated for Academy Awards twice before himself — in supporting for <em>Schindler’s </em>in ’94 and lead for <em>English Patient </em>in ’97. (The latter won nine, but Fiennes wasn’t one of them.) Fiennes won a BAFTA for <em>Schindler’s</em>, his only major triumph — three decades ago.</p>
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<p><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px">The British-born performer is hardly a category slouch after bids from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. His film, <em>Conclave</em>, is, by anyone’s measure, a significant contender. However, his role isn’t as outwardly showy as Brody or Chalamet’s, and Fiennes isn’t a prominent campaigner, preferring to let his work speak for itself. However, a significant part of Oscar-winning is Oscar campaigning.</span></p>
<p>Meanwhile, Domingo has achieved the rare feat of being nominated in a major Oscar acting category two years in a row after last year’s <em>Rustin</em>. He’s also racked up BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG bids two years in a row. His <em>Sing Sing </em>nomination at SAG is his third in two years (also including one for being part of the <em>The Color Purple </em>cast a year ago). But he probably has a better shot at SAG than Oscar, considering his <em>Sing Sing </em>role is about the power of performing to heal, which is catnip for the Screen Actors Guild.</p>
<p>That leaves Stan. If he claimed an improbable win, it would be an upset on a par with Brody’s triumph in 2003. Stan’s powerful portrayal of a young <strong>Donald Trump</strong> deserved acclaim, but he has the longest odds among all the contenders in this category.</p>
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