open.substack.com/pub/lucasgs/... tl;dr: risk from virus stays or grows, people not doing much re #H5N1BadSoonScenario, I will retreat for now. If someone wants to look at this... 💪🏻

I come to this platform rarely at the moment. Just to keep the lights on for #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Greetings, everyone.

I've never been in a #H5N1BadSoonScenario, one where there's asymptomatic transmission that kills a % of the young. But I can imagine that the level of emotional-cognitive disfunction would be higher than say, has been and is still with COVID. Panic includes jumping from high windows... or freezing.

Nature should be stopped. Who does she think she is, really? (That aside, that's the one reason I don't engage in "origin" stuff. Nature by itself is more than enough motivation to prepare for #H5N1BadSoonScenario or whatever people feel comfortable preparing for.)

We Asked an Expert: Will Bird Flu Be the Next Pandemic? Lucas González has been pondering this for 20 years. It might not have been much fun, but it does make him an authority on avian influenza.

Thanks for keeping the awareness on the threat & on the US govt's dismal response so far. How many countries 🌐 are stockpiling respiratory protection for those who keep the lights on (including the many months of making the first doses of vax)? www.vice.com/en/article/a... #H5N1BadSoonScenario

This is a very weak signal. One of the few govts who is writing about pandemic plans. And it's for "airborne", just like appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics suggests! If anyone reads it before I do, I'd love to read your comments. My focus, as always, both #covidstrategy & #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Thanks.

Please see my thread in response to Conor's post. The Deborah Ann Woll video "what do you do" meme is youtu.be/JpVJZrabMQE which is a 9 min watch that I fully recommend. Then, apply to #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Wanna play? Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics/PandemicFluGame

Vax is only part of the picture. Manufacturing good masks for good masking, UV, filters - at scale and fast in case of a #H5N1BadSoonScenario? Education? Plans for mutual support if isolation and quarantine are needed?

The kind of thing that will be vital to tackle a #H5N1BadSoonScenario if (as is likely) resources are thin for most but information is available to all (and, I know, ignored by the deafened and confused - here will be limits to what we can do).

Do you want to know why I keep talking about #H5N1BadSoonScenario and good masks for the 10% that keep the rest of us alive? Not because anyone is paying attention or doing anything. I do this because it makes sense to keep the "EXIT" sign clean, so it will be read when the fire starts, NOT SOONER.

#rapidRAP = #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics/H5N1BadSoonScenario (2025) & resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim (2010).

Aerosol pandemics ''You might want to go directly to Aerosol pandemics/H5N1BadSoonScenario, Aerosol pandemics/Adjusters, Aerosol pandemics/Needs and Systems, Aerosol pandemics/Reduce or of course Aerosol pandemics/Resi...

H5N1 or its siblings could... yeah, whatever numbers. Resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim includes a toy spreadsheet & more. Appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics has stuff. #H5N1BadSoonScenario

And by the lack of focus on the implications of a severe scenario. Vax would be late. Do we have masks for vital society positions? All over the world? That's why I keep working on #H5N1BadSoonScenario 🤷🏼‍♂️

"It will be _great_ if H5N1 kills 'millions'". WHAT? "Yes. Every year, 60 million people die from all causes, including violence and poverty. '5 million' (or whatever the suggested number is) is, frankly, quite a lot less than '200 million' or '1 billion'. Right?" #H5N1BadSoonScenario

I'll definitely want to read it in light of a, some say inevitable, I say at least not impossible, #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Can any & all of the ~200 countries of the 🌐 "make it happen"? Does this plan address rapidly scalable NPI for vital workers & then only slightly more slowly for the rest of us?

I'll love to read that... one day. Do they consider #H5N1BadSoonScenario and appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics/NPI? I hope they do, or otherwise it's "mebne" (maybe excellent but not enough). And "not enough" matters a great deal. Thanks.

I wonder how this project is doing. You know, just in case. #H5N1BadSoonScenario

Useful for #H5N1BadSoonScenario and #CovidStrategy alike.

Reducing Covid Worldwide, In Practice Draft of a cooperative project to model & cost to see how far we could go

We have the science (@ukhadds.bsky.social) & the inventions & engineering (@nukit.bsky.social) but not yet ways to scale to 8 billion (if 1 billion are students, how many classrooms is that? Could we do SCALE? open.substack.com/pub/lucasgs/... would be a tool for slow or FAST. #H5N1BadSoonScenario 👀

Slowly coming to terms with the apparent fact that _nobody_ will pay proactive attention to whatever can be done at the "let's protect as many as possible 🌐" level until there's human to human transmission AND severe cases. We'll have unfocused worry, prediction, and "vaccines". #H5N1BadSoonScenario

H7N9 is one of them. #H5N1BadSoonScenario is really a generic concept. It's not necessarily H5N1 itself. I know you know.

Knowing what govts are doing & not doing = Observations. The Orientation (in #OODA loop terms) = what I said earlier. The Decision & the Action... shall we talk about that? I have some ideas. #H5N1BadSoonScenario is built on the assumption that govts may fail or be counterproductive. As is the case.

Once basic personal / family preps are done, mayne the best is to help in the next level up. Particularly for long stuff like #H5N1BadSoonScenario resiliencemaps.org >> fluscim.

My first dove-tail ever. Took me decades and 5 minutes. It's... well ventilated.

"The future of woodworking rests securely in the hands of amateurs. -- Paul Sellers." Just like #H5N1BadSoonScenario, I may add. Best wishes, everyone! 🌐

How rapid is "rapid"? If #H5N1BadSoonScenario ➡️ lockdown. To get out of lockdown: domestic manufacture of good masks for good masking, good filters for good filtering... and agile resilience to keep vital stuff going in the meantime. We won't do it before there are enough deaths, whatever that is.

Reducing Covid Worldwide, In Practice Draft of a cooperative project to model & cost to see how far we could go

open.substack.com/pub/lucasgs/... is both for #covidstrategy and #H5N1BadSoonScenario. Repost to those who might make it actionable. I'm happy to be part of a team, but don't have the resources to make any of this happen. Best wishes to all, and thanks.

🔪🤺 #H5N1BadSoonScenario (Hashtags: would #AerosolPandemics or #AerosolPandemic be better?)

@angierasmussen.bsky.social, virologist, stops at the beginning of the scenario. Since 2005, I've worked as an epidemiologist on some variation of #H5N1BadSoonScenario. 2010: resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-69p-English.pdf 2020: appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics 2021: youtu.be/mHravkt9o3w

#birdfludoesntcare: if it can create a #H5N1BadSoonScenario, it will. At that level, biology is just physics. Now, humans... what?

I'd personally want that kind of model for #covidstrategy (goals many could stand behind, worldwide) and #H5N1BadSoonScenario (what would work fast in a bad one, and what to do after that rushed start) 6/n