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NASA Update on the Size Estimate and Lunar Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4  - NASA Science Since near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, NASA and the worldwide planetary defense community have continued to observe the asteroid, which was ruled out as a significan...

Observations from JWST and Cerro Paranal have narrowed the uncertainties for that pesky asteroid 2024 YR4 to hit the Moon on December 22, 2032. The estimated impact probability is now 3.8%. The risk for the Earth on the same date is now too low to report. Near Earth = Near Moon.

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