The geopolitical map of the Horn of Africa was redrawn in January 2026, marking a decisive end to Turkey's uncontested maritime hegemony in the Indian Ocean. For over a decade, Ankara has leveraged its deep-rooted presence in Mogadishu to project power through its "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan) doctrine, a Neo-Ottoman maritime strategy designed to secure a permanent foothold from the Mediterranean to the Bab el-Mandeb strait. However, Israel's formal recognition of Somaliland's sovereignty has shattered this regional monopoly, introducing a technologically superior adversary into a theater Turkey once considered its exclusive sphere of influence. Turkey's ambitions in Somalia are best exemplified by its massive 900-square-kilometer spaceport and ballistic missile testing facility currently under construction near Kismaayo. This project, alongside the established Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu, represents the apex of Ankara's long-term investment in the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). By fostering a client-state relationship with Mogadishu, Turkey aimed to control the logistics and security of the Somali coastline, effectively locking out rivals from the northern Indian Ocean. The sudden entry of Israel into Hargeisa has effectively "flanked" Turkey's position, creating a southern front that encircles the Iranian "Axis of Resistance" and poses a direct challenge to Turkish neo-Ottomanism.

Israel has caused the collapse of Turkey’s Indian Ocean monopoly: Recognition of #Somaliland shatters Ankara’s maritime dominance and redraws the strategic map of the Horn of Africa
www.meforum.org/mef-online/i... By Amine Ayoub #geopolitcs #neoOttomanism

The problem with neo-Ottomanism was always two-fold. First, the peoples whom the Turks subjugated over the centuries did not remember their experience as fondly as Turkish nationalists did. Second, the Ottoman domains did not extend eastward toward Central Asia. Azerbaijan, for example, was never part of the Ottoman Empire, let alone Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan. Here, though, Erdoğan just tweaked history by conflating neo-Ottomanism with pan-Turanism, the belief in unity for the Turkic peoples. Wherever history did not support Erdoğan’s ambitions, he simply turned to Islamism, investing heavily in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and putting a Turk at its helm…

In effect, neo-Ottomanism is and always was a cover for Turkish irredentism and a cover for its efforts to sponsor Islamist terror. Turkey today is not only a force for Islamism and instability in the region; it is an ideological incubator that expands its methodology outward. Turkey’s support for Hamas, for example, presaged its more open support for Kashmir-based terrorism, for example. In 2020, Erdoğan spoke before a joint session of the Pakistan parliament to reciprocate a visit by Prime Minister Imran Khan to Turkey. Erdoğan thanked the Pakistani people for their help during Turkey’s war of independence (never mind that Pakistan did not exist at the time). “It was Çanakkale [Gallipoli] yesterday and Kashmir today; there is no difference between the two,” Erdoğan said, declaring that Turkey would always stand with Pakistan in its illegal quest to seize Kashmir. Pakistan has increasingly looked at Turkey for inspiration. The parliamentary speakers of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan meet trilaterally to emphasise their solidarity. Pakistan sees the West’s tolerance for Turkey’s Islamism and irredentism as a sign that it too can get away with murder. As Western countries excuse Turkey’s occupations of northern Cyprus, northern Syria, and parts of Iraqi Kurdistan as just manifestations of neo-Ottomanism, expect Pakistan to follow suit, all the more so to backfill what is essentially an artificial and accidental state with historic validity.

How Turkey’s ‘neo-Ottomanism’ and Pakistan’s ‘neo-Mughalism’ are clear and present danger: When Islamabad takes inspiration from Ankara, terrorism thrives, democracies suffer, and the world becomes far less safe www.firstpost.com/opinion/how-... By Michael Rubin #NeoOttomanism #Islamism #terrorism

Another setback for the SDF (Kurdish/US forces).

Another step forward for neo-Ottomanism.

#neoOttomanism