Housing Starts Slide in May, But Single-Family Holds Steady The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a noticeable drop in overall housing starts in May, though single-family activity managed a small gain. Building permits also declined, continuing a trend of slight cooling in new construction momentum. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts , with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts fell nearly 10% to an annual pace of 1.256 million , down from 1.392 million in April. The decline was almost entirely due to a sharp drop in multifamily starts , which fell from 420k to 316k , the lowest level in over a year. In contrast, single-family starts edged up slightly to 924k from 920k . Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—also declined, dropping 2% from 1.422 million to 1.393 million . That included a 2.7% decline in single-family permits and a moderate slowdown in multifamily authorizations.

Housing Starts Slide in May, But Single-Family Holds Steady #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

The Trend is Friendly For Now The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend."  We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore."  All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirmation of that shift.  What we can't know is when the next show of resistance will happen and whether that will merely be a speed bump before additional gains, or a sign to circle the wagons and get sideways again.  Data wasn't necessarily a huge factor in today's improvement although it didn't hurt. Bonds have an underlying vigor for other reasons, as evidenced by a solid 7yr Treasury auction today, despite yields being at the lowest levels in more than a month. Today's video discusses some possible reasons for that.  Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 236k vs 245k f'cast, 246k prev Continued Claims 1974k vs 1950k f'cast, 1937k prev GDP  -0.5 vs -0.2 f'cast Durable goods 16.4 vs 8.5 f'cast, -6.6 prev Durables ex defense/aircraft  1.7 vs 0.1 f'cast, -1.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:39 AM Bonds have moved just a hair weaker in response with MBS back to unchanged after being up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr back to unchanged after being down just over 1bp at 4.283. 09:16 AM Quick reversal back into positive territory.  MBS up 4 ticks (.125) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.265 12:32 PM Best levels of the day ahead of 7yr auction.  MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.265 03:21 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yields down 3.6bps at 4.252

Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Continues #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Not So Fast: January Existing-Home Sales Give Back December’s Gains Existing-home sales pulled back sharply in January, quickly dashing any hopes that December’s year-end rebound brought, as harsh winter weather and still-tight supply conditions weighed on activity. Sales fell 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million, the lowest levels since November 2024. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), transactions were also 4.4% lower than the same time last year, with every region posting both month-over-month and year-over-year declines. “The decrease in sales is disappointing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Perhaps an understatement, especially after the strong showing last month. He added that affordability is nevertheless improving, with wage gains outpacing price growth and mortgage rates running lower than a year ago, though supply remains limited. Inventory dipped slightly from December but stayed above year-ago levels. Total housing inventory registered at 1.22 million units, down 0.8% from the prior month and up 3.4% from January 2025. The months’ supply of unsold homes increased to 3.7 months, up from 3.5 months in December. Price pressures persisted. The median existing-home price for all housing types rose to $396,800, up 0.9% from a year earlier and marking the 31st consecutive month of annual gains. Yun noted that homeowners continue to build substantial equity, estimating that the typical owner has accumulated more than $130,000 in housing wealth since early 2020.

Mortgage Rates Oh So Close to 3 Year Lows #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Match Multi-Year Low For 2nd Straight Day The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years. With rates holding perfectly steady today, this is the 3rd day that matches that multi-year low. In one important way, the past 2 days represent a bigger victory for rates. Back on January 9th, the MND rate index only hit 5.99 for a few hours before bouncing. The next month and a half saw the average well into the low 6s. Contrast that to the current case where we've approached 5.99% more slowly and, thus far, are holding it much more steadily. All that having been said, there's never a guarantee that tomorrow's rates will be as low even if there aren't any economic reports that suggest a potentially volatile response. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage Rates Match Multi-Year Low For 2nd Straight Day #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts' bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not entirely possible to justify what we've seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would rely on somewhat esoteric concepts regarding the way investor demand ebbs and flows between different Treasury securities (i.e. 2yr vs 10yr, etc).  More volatility could be on the way tomorrow. The BLS will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. This is the first major inflation report that comes out on any given month. Because inflation is a key consideration for rates, if CPI is meaningfully above or below the median forecast, rates often react accordingly.

Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Token Weakness Without a Cause Token Weakness Without a Cause Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no reason that can be easily proven.  That's been the case on each of the past two sessions  with 30yr yields moving almost 10bps higher between the two of them.  Geopolitical motivations have been nonexistent despite some efforts to link oil price concerns to bond weakness (not a solid thesis right now). Fiscal concerns may be having some small effect behind the scenes, but they're hard to substantiate based on the available headlines. The easiest approach would be to continue to classify the market as rangebound, in which case a pull-back makes sense given the lower yields seen last Thursday--especially with bigger ticket data/events over the next two days. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing -16.0 vs -5.5 f'cast, -9.20 prev Market Movement Recap 09:48 AM Choppy and slightly weaker overnight, but sideways and holding ground since then.   MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4 bps at 4.426 01:47 PM After a decent rally into 10:30am, MBS are down an eighth from highs and 3 ticks (.09) on the day.  10yr up 4.6bps at 4.446 03:50 PM Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down an eighth on the day and 10yr yields up 5.3bps at 4.454

Mortgage Rates Drift Slightly Higher to Start The Week #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Bond Market Weakness Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates. Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground as a result and mortgage lenders were forced to set rates higher than Friday's latest levels. But the caveat is that the average lender was only marginally higher. The level of movement in the bond market suggested a bigger change. In other words, mortgage rates fared a bit better than the market suggested. When this happens, it's most frequently due to timing. If bonds lose ground moderately, but those losses happen  after mortgage lenders announce the day's rates, many lenders will simply wait until the following day to adjust rates accordingly. This could explain some of today's resilience.

Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Bond Market Weakness #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Calmer Week For Mortgage Apps Mortgage application activity was essentially flat last week, almost impressively so. After much recent volatility, the index is finding a brief moment of stability, and borrowers seem content continue to weigh affordability challenges and wait for clearer movement in rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications decreased 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending February 6, while rising 2% on an unadjusted basis. Purchase demand softened modestly. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped 2% from the prior week, while unadjusted purchase applications increased 4% and were 4% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity posted a small gain. The Refinance Index rose 1% from the previous week and remained 101% higher than a year earlier. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, described the week as a mixed bag across loan types. While the 30-year fixed rate held steady at 6.21%, conventional applications declined for both purchases and refinances as some borrowers wait for a more meaningful drop in rates or migrate toward other loan types and products. And they appear to be doing just that, as FHA and ARM products saw an increase in apps last week. Kan noted that FHA purchase and refinance applications increased, supported in part by FHA rates that remained roughly 20 basis points below the conforming 30-year fixed rate. He added that borrowers are increasingly turning to FHA loans as affordability pressures persist. At the same time, the ARM share climbed to a seven-week high, with ARM rates running nearly a full percentage point below comparable fixed rates.

Modest Increase in Rates is a Win. Here's Why #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Match 2-Month Lows Because mortgage rates are determined by the bond market, a boring market day typically translates to a boring mortgage rate day. But that's not entirely true today. While the level of movement is indeed very small, it only took a small movement to get the average 30yr fixed rate down to their lowest levels since the end of October.   Next week should be another slow one for rates, but things should pick up progressively as 2026 gets underway.

Mortgage Rates Match 2-Month Lows #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

New 2-Month Lows, Just Barely With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average lender barely budged from last Friday. But it was enough for MND's 30yr fixed rate index to tick down by 0.01%. This is the lowest level since October 28th--just barely edging out the lows seen on November 25th. There were only 5 days in November and one day in September with lower rates.  Before that, you'd have to go back to September 2024 to see anything lower. As always, there's never any way to know what's next for rates. The outcome of next week's economic data could certainly have a say in that. What we do know is that the present zone has been a recurring lower boundary for the range going all the way back to late 2022.

New 2-Month Lows, Just Barely #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Lower After Fed Announcement, But Not Because of It There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed's rate decision. The problem in today's case is that there wasn't even anything remotely resembling a decision, nor did anyone expect there to be. Markets were effectively betting on a zero percent chance of a rate cut at this meeting, and that's been the case for several weeks. Fed speakers had also been very clear in their shoulder shrugs during that time, saying that there are two big policy considerations in play right now, each arguing in the opposite direction. Specifically, the Fed has a mandate to "promote maximum employment," which could also be viewed as "promote a strong economy," and a mandate for "price stability," which is fancy talk for the Fed's inflation fighting role.  When Fed speakers have recently referred to those two mandates being in tension, they mean the potential drag on the economy from tariffs and tighter fiscal policy argues in favor of lower rates if it translates to higher unemployment and weaker economic data.  Contrast that to the potential increase in inflation due to tariffs, which argues in favor of higher rates. Simply put, there was nothing the Fed could do today but sit on its hands and wait to see which side of the mandate ended up having more compelling evidence, and nothing for Fed Chair Powell to do but reiterate that fact multiple times when almost every reporter asked a different version of the same question. 

Mortgage Rates Lower After Fed Announcement, But Not Because of It #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Winter Weather Puts Purchase Applications on Ice Mortgage application activity moved lower again last week, extending the pullback from January’s earlier burst of demand as weather disruptions and softening purchase activity weighed on overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications declined 8.9% for the week ending January 30. The Market Composite Index fell 8.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while rising 4% on an unadjusted basis, highlighting the continued volatility in weekly application data following a period of unusually strong activity earlier in the month. This week, purchase activity took center stage and drove much of the weakness. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dropped 14% from the prior week, while unadjusted purchase applications increased 2% but were only 4% higher than the same week one year ago—lowest levels since November 2025 and the weakest annual increase since April 2025. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, pointed to Winter Storm Fern as a key factor, noting that widespread snowfall likely hampered homebuying activity across large parts of the country. Refinance volume also declined, though by a smaller margin. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 117% higher than a year earlier. Despite mortgage rates edging modestly lower, Kan noted that the change was not significant enough to materially boost refinance demand.

Mortgage Rates Match Lowest Levels in Over 2 Weeks #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 3 Weeks Mortgage rates fell on Tuesday following a downbeat Retail Sales report. At 0.05%, it was the largest single-day drop since the uncommonly big 0.15% drop on January 9th. This also takes the average 30yr fixed rate to 6.11%, easily below its recently narrow range of 6.15-6.20. The bonds that drive mortgage rates are always tuned in to various economic reports for movement cues. Weaker data = lower rates, all else equal. Retail Sales is hit and miss when it comes to causing rate volatility. The undisputed champion among economic reports is tomorrow's jobs report at 8:30am ET. Several recent rate rallies have been slightly larger than they otherwise might have been because the market may be positioning for a downbeat jobs number. If it is weaker than expected, there's certainly room for the rate rally to continue, but if the report shows resilience, rates would likely bounce back higher.

Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 3 Weeks #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Hold Flat on Thursday Despite Lower Weekly Average For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we're splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news headlines today claiming that rates hit their lowest levels in more than 3 years? Simply put, those stories are based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac. Freddie isn't technically wrong, but you have to understand their methodology. Freddie's survey is an average of the rates available from last Thursday through yesterday. Indeed, if you use the numbers from our daily rate index on those days, the average is the lowest in 3 years, even if today's rates are a hair higher than several recent days.

Mortgage Rates Hold Flat on Thursday Despite Lower Weekly Average #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Pending Home Sales Data Scores Some Points, But Not Enough to Change The Game The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s update showed a modest improvement, but the broader story hasn’t changed. Pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May, marking the first increase since February. The index is now 1.1% higher than a year ago , but still well below pre-2022 norms. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t been above 80 since the summer of 2022 and continues to reflect a sluggish, rate-constrained housing market. “Consistent job gains and rising wages are modestly helping the housing market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Hourly wages are increasing faster than home prices. However, mortgage rate fluctuations are the primary driver of homebuying decisions and impact housing affordability more than wage gains.” Here’s how the month-over-month change broke down by region: Northeast: +2.1% Midwest: +0.3% South: +1.0% West: +6.0%

Pending Home Sales Data Scores Some Points, But Not Enough to Change The Game #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Fall After Downbeat Employment Data Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various employment metrics. Next Wednesday's jobs report is the biggest ticket by far, but other reports can move the needle at times--especially when they fall far from forecasts or previous readings. This was the case with three separate reports today.  One of them almost never gets covered in the news, but it showed planned layoffs at large firms were the third highest since 2020. The second was the weekly jobless claims report, which finally ticked up to slightly higher levels after coming in lower than average over the past few weeks. Garnering the biggest reaction was the Job Openings data for December, which showed the lowest levels since September 2020--much lower than forecast for today. The bond market was surprisingly willing to respond.  There was even a noticeable shift in Fed rate cut expectations (not that this should be confused for anything that impacts mortgage rates!).  The average lender moved back to the lowest levels of the week after spending the last 2 days at 2-week highs.  Caveat: the 2 week range is very narrow (6.15-6.20). [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage Rates Fall After Downbeat Employment Data #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Tick Microscopically Higher Mortgage rates at the average lender moved up by 0.01% today--the smallest increment measured by the MND daily rate index. This means that most borrowers won't see a meaningful different in today's rates vs yesterday's. That's welcome news considering yesterday's rates were tied for the second best day in more than 3 years. In the bigger picture, the absence of improvement over the past 2 days may suggest that recent bull run in rates is pausing for reflection, or at least until and unless certain economic reports justify renewed momentum. On that note, this week's nearest examples of such reports will almost all be released on Friday morning, but they're notably less potent than the data seen over the past 2 weeks.

Mortgage Rates Tick Microscopically Higher #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady at 2-Week Highs The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during these 2 weeks. As such, by remaining unchanged versus yesterday, today's rates are part of the same narrow range (6.15-6.20% for MND's index). There were two relevant economic reports this morning as well as an update from the Treasury department regarding borrowing expectations. The latter is important for interest rates because the level of Treasury issuance is a primary ingredient in determining almost any consumer lending rate in the U.S. Higher issuance would increase the supply of bonds.  Higher bond supply would decrease the price of bonds. And when bond prices fall, rates move higher, all else equal. This morning's update kept issuance unchanged in the short term, but noted the probability of increased issuance in the next fiscal year.  This put some upward pressure on rates early in the day, but a tame report on the services sector helped bonds find their footing. Flat bonds = flat rates. The end.

Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady at 2-Week Highs #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon's levels ahead of the 10am data.  JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday's highs--perhaps with some help from the Senate's passage of the spending bill, but at that point, traders bought the dip in bond prices and pushed back into the day's range.  It wasn't enough to get back to positive territory, but it made the day less of an obvious turning point in the bigger-picture.  Perhaps a better way to say it would be that bonds still look open-minded when it comes to responding to Thursday's jobs report and next week's CPI. Econ Data / Events S&P Manufacturing PMI 52.9 vs 52.0 f'cast, 52.0 prev ISM Manufacturing 49.0 vs 48.8 f'cast, 48.5 prev ISM Employment 45.0 vs 47.0 f'cast, 46.8 prev ISM Prices 69.7 vs 69 f'cast Job Openings 7.769m vs 7.300m f'cast, 7.395m prev Market Movement Recap 10:34 AM slightly stronger overnight, but progressively weaker in the AM--especially after 10am econ data.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.256 12:01 PM 10yr yields are up 5bp at 4.273.  MBS down a quarter point. 02:59 PM Modest recovery.  MBS down only 5 ticks (.16) now.  10yr up 2.5bps at 4.25

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3 Month Lows #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Bond Buying Announcement Leads Surge in Mortgage Apps As we reported last week, the announcement that Fannie and Freddie would buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities led to a precipitous drop in rates last week. For most of Friday, the top tier 30yr fixed rate was at 5.99% for the average lender according to MND's daily mortgage rate index--the lowest in roughly 3 years.  And that single day of ridiculously low rates was enough to visibly juice application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 28.5% jump in applications for the week ending January 9th. One small caveat: the prior week’s data included an adjustment for the New Year’s Day holiday, exaggerating the contrast, but the underlying rebound was nonetheless substantial. The Refinance Index surged 40% from the previous week and was 128% higher than the same week one year ago, marking the strongest weekly pace since October.  Purchase activity also strengthened meaningfully. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 16% week-over-week, while unadjusted purchase applications jumped 51% and remained 13% above last year’s level, signaling continued buyer engagement as rates moved lower. “Mortgage rates dropped lower last week following the announcement of increased MBS purchases by the GSEs. Lower rates, including the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.18 percent, sparked an increase in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Compared to a holiday-adjusted week, refinance applications surged 40 percent to the strongest weekly pace since October 2025. The average loan size for refinance applications was also higher, as borrowers with larger loan sizes are typically more sensitive to changes in rates.”

Mortgage Rates Unchanged Despite Bond Market Improvement #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Stay Flat to Start New Week It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender holding right in line with last Friday's levels. In this case, that's a good thing. On the day before and/or after a 3-day weekend, rates tend to be more volatile than normal. That was certainly the case last Friday as the MND rate index dropped at its fastest pace since early January.  By holding steady, rates remain right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years.

Mortgage Rates Stay Flat to Start New Week #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage