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Mortgage Rates Spike to 2026 Highs Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched higher by an amount typically seen when the market is reacting to big, breaking news.  But there wasn't any of that sort of news on tap today--just downbeat updates that reinforced a longer timeline for geopolitical disruptions. The bigger issue for mortgage rates is that they often experience heightened volatility when they pass through the 6.25% level. Due to the underlying structure of the mortgage market, 6.25% is sort of a dead zone. If you really want to see the nuts and bolts behind that phenomenon, here's the primer. The practical result is that movement tends to be bigger when rates are rising or falling through 6.25% (or any level that ends with 0.25 or 0.75). As such, when rates began moving up from 6.125%, the slightly elevated bond market volatility made for a faster trip up to the 6.375% zone (today's MND index was revised up to 6.35% in the afternoon after ending Monday at 6.14%). This is the highest level since December 8th, 2025, though it should be noted that prior to September 2025, rates had been much higher, on average, for roughly an entire year. 

Mortgage Rates Spike to 2026 Highs #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Fall After Downbeat Employment Data Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various employment metrics. Next Wednesday's jobs report is the biggest ticket by far, but other reports can move the needle at times--especially when they fall far from forecasts or previous readings. This was the case with three separate reports today.  One of them almost never gets covered in the news, but it showed planned layoffs at large firms were the third highest since 2020. The second was the weekly jobless claims report, which finally ticked up to slightly higher levels after coming in lower than average over the past few weeks. Garnering the biggest reaction was the Job Openings data for December, which showed the lowest levels since September 2020--much lower than forecast for today. The bond market was surprisingly willing to respond.  There was even a noticeable shift in Fed rate cut expectations (not that this should be confused for anything that impacts mortgage rates!).  The average lender moved back to the lowest levels of the week after spending the last 2 days at 2-week highs.  Caveat: the 2 week range is very narrow (6.15-6.20). [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage Rates Fall After Downbeat Employment Data #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Not So Fast: January Existing-Home Sales Give Back December’s Gains Existing-home sales pulled back sharply in January, quickly dashing any hopes that December’s year-end rebound brought, as harsh winter weather and still-tight supply conditions weighed on activity. Sales fell 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million, the lowest levels since November 2024. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), transactions were also 4.4% lower than the same time last year, with every region posting both month-over-month and year-over-year declines. “The decrease in sales is disappointing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Perhaps an understatement, especially after the strong showing last month. He added that affordability is nevertheless improving, with wage gains outpacing price growth and mortgage rates running lower than a year ago, though supply remains limited. Inventory dipped slightly from December but stayed above year-ago levels. Total housing inventory registered at 1.22 million units, down 0.8% from the prior month and up 3.4% from January 2025. The months’ supply of unsold homes increased to 3.7 months, up from 3.5 months in December. Price pressures persisted. The median existing-home price for all housing types rose to $396,800, up 0.9% from a year earlier and marking the 31st consecutive month of annual gains. Yun noted that homeowners continue to build substantial equity, estimating that the typical owner has accumulated more than $130,000 in housing wealth since early 2020.

Mortgage Rates Oh So Close to 3 Year Lows #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Microscopically Higher Mortgage rates continue operating in an excruciatingly narrow range near their lowest levels of the past few years. Yesterday was the 6th best day of 2025. Today is tied for 7th place after rates moved 0.01% higher on average. While the underlying bond market is fully open today, it's a slow time of year in terms of volume and volatility. Bigger movement becomes more likely by the end of next week thanks to the return of important economic reports and stronger trader participation after holiday absences. 

Mortgage Rates Microscopically Higher #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts' bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not entirely possible to justify what we've seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would rely on somewhat esoteric concepts regarding the way investor demand ebbs and flows between different Treasury securities (i.e. 2yr vs 10yr, etc).  More volatility could be on the way tomorrow. The BLS will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. This is the first major inflation report that comes out on any given month. Because inflation is a key consideration for rates, if CPI is meaningfully above or below the median forecast, rates often react accordingly.

Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Highest Rates in More Than a Month Mortgage rates moved higher on Wednesday despite only a modest increase in oil prices. The latter is currently a part of any conversation about interest rates as higher energy costs have fueled inflation expectations. Higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. But rates take other cues, or course. One key consideration is that of "supply." In other words, how many new dollars of debt are being issued--not just by the U.S. government, but across the entire bond market.  At present, government issuance is high and only expected to get higher. Even though congressional approval is ultimately required, armed conflict can increase expectations for future military spending. There's also uncertainty over tariff refunds which would further increase the supply of U.S. Treasuries to offset the lost revenue. Last but not least, this week brings scheduled Treasury auctions. The market knew about these ahead of time, but on some auction weeks, the results reveal an imbalance between buyers and sellers that increases momentum toward higher or lower interest rates. This week, that momentum has been generally higher. The net effect on mortgage rates is a conventional top-tier 30yr fixed that is back to February 4th levels on average. 

Highest Rates in More Than a Month #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Calmer Week For Mortgage Apps Mortgage application activity was essentially flat last week, almost impressively so. After much recent volatility, the index is finding a brief moment of stability, and borrowers seem content continue to weigh affordability challenges and wait for clearer movement in rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications decreased 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending February 6, while rising 2% on an unadjusted basis. Purchase demand softened modestly. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped 2% from the prior week, while unadjusted purchase applications increased 4% and were 4% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity posted a small gain. The Refinance Index rose 1% from the previous week and remained 101% higher than a year earlier. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, described the week as a mixed bag across loan types. While the 30-year fixed rate held steady at 6.21%, conventional applications declined for both purchases and refinances as some borrowers wait for a more meaningful drop in rates or migrate toward other loan types and products. And they appear to be doing just that, as FHA and ARM products saw an increase in apps last week. Kan noted that FHA purchase and refinance applications increased, supported in part by FHA rates that remained roughly 20 basis points below the conforming 30-year fixed rate. He added that borrowers are increasingly turning to FHA loans as affordability pressures persist. At the same time, the ARM share climbed to a seven-week high, with ARM rates running nearly a full percentage point below comparable fixed rates.

Modest Increase in Rates is a Win. Here's Why #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Builder Confidence Near Post-Pandemic Lows, But Timing is Everything The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo released the monthly Housing Market Index (HMI) this week, showing builder confidence falling to the lowest levels since 2023.  This is about as low as the index has been since the housing crisis more than a decade ago. While persistently high interest rates remain a top concern for the housing market, a growing number of builders cited difficulty pricing new homes in light of the rapidly changing outlook for material costs due to tariffs.  With that in mind, it's important to note that 90% of this month's responses came in  before the US/China trade announcement.  Not only did that announcement drastically reduce tariffs for 90 days, it also offered a proof of concept that will likely see the outlook improve in the next survey due to lower material costs and a more upbeat consumer. Additional details are available at https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index.

Builder Confidence Near Post-Pandemic Lows, But Timing is Everything #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Take Another Step Toward April Lows April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's."  Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time.  Just a few days ago, we noted there was still a ways to go before breaking below those early April levels, but the past few days have taken us within striking distance.  The average lender is now only 0.07% higher than they were on April 4th and that's a gap that can be traversed in as little as one day under the right circumstances. If it is destined to be traversed in the near feature, it would likely be due to exceptional weakness in the forthcoming economic data--especially Thursday's big jobs report.  Conversely, if this week's economic data surprises to the upside, it would likely coincide with rates bouncing here and headline back into the recent range. And lastly, if this week's data doesn't cast a decisive vote in either direction, next week's inflation reports could easily break the tie. The most interesting aspect of today's movement was the movement itself.  It didn't happen due to any interesting data or news headlines.  Both stocks and bonds (which dictate rates) improved as traders moved portfolios into position for the end of the month/quarter.  This can cause market movement independent of economic data/news. 

Mortgage Rates Take Another Step Toward April Lows #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower Ahead of Fed Day Mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range with almost every day of the past two months falling between 6.8 and 7.0% for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario. Today's average rate fell 0.03 after moving up 0.06 since June 12th. This morning's most relevant potential influence--the Retail Sales report--turned out to have a limited impact this morning.  To be fair, when rates are as stable as they have been, there's no need to overanalyze their underlying motivations.  For those determined to do it anyway, today's best example may have been general market anxiety surrounding war in the Middle East. We have yet to see any huge market reaction in response to any of the geopolitical headlines, but there was a reaction that played out over the course of several hours that helped the bond market gain some ground. When bonds improve, mortgage lenders are able to offer lower rates.  Tomorrow's Fed announcement adds to the potential volatility in a more serious way.  This has nothing to do with "cut vs no cut" (there is zero chance of a rate cut tomorrow) and everything to do with the other information the Fed presents on announcement days. Of this info, it is the dot plot (a chart in the Fed's economic projection materials that show each Fed members' rate outlook over the next few years) that carries the most weight.  Caveat: POTENTIAL volatility is just that.  Sometimes Fed announcement days end up leaving rates fairly unchanged.  There's no way to now which way things will move ahead of time, only that the risk is higher than normal.

Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower Ahead of Fed Day #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Barely Budge, But Volatility Risk is Increasing Mortgage rates have been effectively unchanged for 5 straight days now. During that time, the MND 30yr fixed rate index hasn't moved by more than 0.01%. The average borrower would see almost exactly the same terms on any of these days. The absence of volatility isn't much of a surprise given the time of year and the lack of important economic data. But that changes tomorrow with the release of two labor market reports and ISM's service sector report. Individually, none of these are as heavy hitting as Friday's forthcoming jobs report, but if they all sing a similar tune, it could definitely get rates moving (for better or worse).  Specifically, if the data is stronger, it would likely push rates higher and vice versa.

Mortgage Rates Barely Budge, But Volatility Risk is Increasing #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Remarkable Absence of Mortgage Rate Volatility It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to the level of indecision not only in the market, but also among Fed members. First off, what's a "dot plot day?"  The dot plot (or simply, "the dots") refers to a chart/table in the Fed's economic projections that shows where each Fed member sees the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years.  These projections only come out on 4 of the 8 Fed days per year and they've grown to be a leading source of volatility for financial markets on those days. Since it was already a foregone conclusion that the Fed would not be cutting rates today, the market was forced to take its Fed-related cues from the dots and from Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The latter was just slightly negative for rates (i.e. it implied some upward pressure), but the dots did no harm.  After the dust settled, the underlying bond market was flat to slightly stronger on the day due to improvement that was in place several hours before the Fed announcement.  Markets are closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday, but will reopen on Friday.

Remarkable Absence of Mortgage Rate Volatility #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Mortgage Rates Holding at 2-Month Lows The two days of 2025 with the lowest rates were September 16th and October 28th. Both days happened to be the Tuesdays that preceded Fed rate cuts. On both occasions, those rate cuts were delivered with other comments from the Fed that the bond market didn't like.  The net effect is/was two very obvious dips and spikes. The second half of December saw the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate inch closer and closer to those previous lows, but we're still not quite there yet. Today was just another day in that saga as the average lender held right in line with Friday's latest levels. Bottom line: at current levels, any day that rates spend holding steady or moving microscopically lower will technically result in the lowest rates since October 28th. It would take a more noticeable improvement to break below that floor. When and if that happens, rates will be the lowest since early 2023. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage Rates Holding at 2-Month Lows #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Match Multi-Year Low For 2nd Straight Day The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years. With rates holding perfectly steady today, this is the 3rd day that matches that multi-year low. In one important way, the past 2 days represent a bigger victory for rates. Back on January 9th, the MND rate index only hit 5.99 for a few hours before bouncing. The next month and a half saw the average well into the low 6s. Contrast that to the current case where we've approached 5.99% more slowly and, thus far, are holding it much more steadily. All that having been said, there's never a guarantee that tomorrow's rates will be as low even if there aren't any economic reports that suggest a potentially volatile response. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage Rates Match Multi-Year Low For 2nd Straight Day #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 3 Weeks Mortgage rates fell on Tuesday following a downbeat Retail Sales report. At 0.05%, it was the largest single-day drop since the uncommonly big 0.15% drop on January 9th. This also takes the average 30yr fixed rate to 6.11%, easily below its recently narrow range of 6.15-6.20. The bonds that drive mortgage rates are always tuned in to various economic reports for movement cues. Weaker data = lower rates, all else equal. Retail Sales is hit and miss when it comes to causing rate volatility. The undisputed champion among economic reports is tomorrow's jobs report at 8:30am ET. Several recent rate rallies have been slightly larger than they otherwise might have been because the market may be positioning for a downbeat jobs number. If it is weaker than expected, there's certainly room for the rate rally to continue, but if the report shows resilience, rates would likely bounce back higher.

Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 3 Weeks #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.  If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%). The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum—not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April's declines to some extent. Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March MoM (raw): +0.6% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.4%

Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure that took bonds into modestly weaker territory. It turns out it was so light that it was easy for bond buyers to get back on top un the afternoon hours. There was a bit of help from the Fed's much-anticipated announcement of a change to banking rules that will effectively allow banks to hold more Treasuries than before.  This wasn't a big market mover and its impacts would play out in the background over time, but it did seem to help to the tune of a bp or two today. With that, yields hit the 3pm close at their lowest  levels since May 7th, just barely edging out yesterday's marks.  Econ Data / Events New Home Sales 623k vs 690k f'cast, 743k prev Market Movement Recap 09:54 AM Flat overnight and modestly weaker just before the open.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.321 12:51 PM Decent rally ahead of 5yr Treasury auction.  10yr up only 1.3bps at 4.305.  MBS down only 1 tick (.03). 01:43 PM No major response to 5yr auction.  10yr yields up 2bps at 4.312.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06). 03:45 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down nearly 1bp at 4.284

Lowest Rates in Over 2 Months #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month Don't look now, but rates just inched their way down to the best levels since the first week of May.  It's probably NOT fair to credit geopolitical developments for the bond market improvement.  While those developments arguably had an impact at times during the day, they were also arguably a zero sum game by the end of the day (due to a rapid de-escalation of armed conflict).  What's left over is the improvement seen earlier in the day due to the shift in Fed Funds Rate expectations after comments from Bowman.  This no doubt increases the market's anticipation for Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony over the next two days. Econ Data / Events S&P Services PMI 53.1 vs 52.9 f'cast, 53.7 prev Existing Home Sales 4.03m vs 3.96m f'cast, 4.00m prev Market Movement Recap 10:10 AM Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains after Bowman comments on supporting a July rate cut.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.315 12:38 PM Slow, steady bond gains over the past 2 hours.  10yr down 8.3bps to 4.296 and MBS up 9 ticks (.28). 02:43 PM Off the strongest levels but still stronger on the day.  MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 5.8bps at 4.321 03:40 PM Technically down an eighth from the highs.  MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr still down 4.6bps at 4.333

Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 1st #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage

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Mortgage Rates Hold Flat on Thursday Despite Lower Weekly Average For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we're splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news headlines today claiming that rates hit their lowest levels in more than 3 years? Simply put, those stories are based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac. Freddie isn't technically wrong, but you have to understand their methodology. Freddie's survey is an average of the rates available from last Thursday through yesterday. Indeed, if you use the numbers from our daily rate index on those days, the average is the lowest in 3 years, even if today's rates are a hair higher than several recent days.

Mortgage Rates Hold Flat on Thursday Despite Lower Weekly Average #Oregonrealestate #Portlandrealestate #mortgage