RBA set to cut rates 25 bps to 3.60% on August 12, one more cut likely this year - Reuters Poll By Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir BENGALURU (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% on August 12, according to economists polled by Reuters, who have not changed their rate views. Inflation fell to 2.1% last quarter, a near-four year low and close to the lower band of the RBA’s target range of 2%-3%, giving the RBA what it needs to continue cutting rates after a rare split decision to pause last month that surprised markets. The unemployment rate rose to a 3-1/2-year high of 4.3% in June. Together with slow domestic demand, this suggests a need for less restrictive monetary policy in an economy where household spending accounts for over 50% of growth. All 40 respondents in the August 4-7 Reuters poll expected the central bank to cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% on August 12. "Q2 inflation data was no worse than feared and the softer June labour force report we saw recently is more than enough to get your 25 basis point rate cut. It would seem the RBA’s recent concerns about inflation were perhaps a little bit overdone," said Andrew Ticehurst, senior economist at Nomura. Over 90% of respondents who had views on rates until year-end, 35 of 38, predicted another 25 basis point cut next quarter, bringing the cash rate to 3.35% by end-December. Two said 3.10% and one predicted rates would be 3.60%. All of Australia’s major banks - ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac - expected rates to be 3.35% at the end of this year. Median forecasts showed one additional rate cut by end-March to 3.10%, with rates then expected to remain steady through 2026. (Other stories from the August Reuters global economic poll) Don't miss out on the next big opportunity! Stay ahead of the curve with ProPicks – 6 model portfolios fueled by AI stock picks with a stellar performance this year.. In 2024 alone, ProPicks' AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech Stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies. So if CBA is on your watchlist, it could be very wise to know whether or not it made the ProPicks lists.

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Asia stocks spooked by Trump tariff warning; RBA rate cut in focus - Investing.com Asia stocks spooked by Trump tariff warning; RBA rate cut in focus  Investing.com

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Asia stocks spooked by Trump tariff warning; RBA rate cut in focus Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks fell on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said countries in the BRICS bloc will face higher trade tariffs, while offering few direct signals on the full scope of his planned levies. Focus was also on an upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates further. But these bets provided little support to Australian stocks. Regional markets were spooked by Trump stating that countries in the BRICS bloc will face 10% higher duties. Asian markets also fell in tandem with Wall Street futures, which turned negative after the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite hit record highs on Thursday. S&P 500 Futures fell 0.4% in Asian trade. Asia stocks skittish amid tariff caution Trump over the weekend said he will begin issuing letters to major economies informing them of their trade tariffs from Monday, although he did postpone the imposition of the duties to August 1 from July 9. Trump said on Sunday evening that countries under the BRICS bloc– whose Asian members include India and China– will face an additional 10% tariff over their allegedly anti-American policies. But it remains unclear just how high Trump’s tariffs will be. The president had in April unveiled tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on major economies, but gave no indication in recent weeks whether the tariffs will be imposed as flagged earlier. Washington also appeared to have reached few trade deals in the three months since April, with Japan, South Korea, and India seen still engaging in high-level talks. China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes shed 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.5%. All three indexes deepened losses slightly after Trump’s BRICS warning. Chinese markets were little supported by recent signs of progress in Sino-U.S. trade relations, after the two countries lifted some export controls against each other last week. Beijing also outlined more planned stimulus measures in the past week. Gift Nifty 50 Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index reversed early gains to trade mildly negative after Trump’s warning. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes shed about 0.5% each, after mixed prints on consumer spending spurred more doubts over the Bank of Japan’s plans to raise interest rates. South Korea’s KOSPI was flat. Asian technology shares also took little support from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (TW:2317) clocking record-high second-quarter revenue over the weekend. Australia stocks dip with RBA rate cut in focus Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.1%, remaining in sight of recent record highs as markets awaited the RBA’s decision. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% on Tuesday, although analysts at Westpac warned that chances of a cut were still not 100%. A July cut will mark the RBA’s third 25 bps cut this year, after it kicked off an easing cycle in February. Since then, signs of persistent cooling in Australian inflation, along with easing economic growth, have posited a largely dovish outlook for the RBA. Increased trade headwinds for Australia are also expected to invite more easing.

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Australia’s soft CPI inflation paves way for RBA rate cut in July - CBA Investing.com-- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is poised to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July after May’s inflation reading came in softer than expected on Wednesday, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) economists said in a note. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator rose just 2.1% year-on-year in May, below both CBA’s and consensus forecasts of 2.3%. The benign print follows April’s modest upside surprise and signals waning price pressures across the economy, the bank noted. "Today’s monthly CPI print capped off a flow of data that should provide comfort to the RBA that a swifter return of the cash rate to neutral is both manageable and needed," said CBA economists. "The decision to the cut the cash rate in July will still be a close one. We expect there to be a discussion of both leaving the cash rate on hold and cutting by 25bp," they added. The report highlighted easing market services inflation and a reversal of April’s temporary spike in dwelling costs as key factors supporting imminent policy easing. CBA forecasts the cash rate will fall to a neutral setting of around 3.35% before year-end, warning that maintaining restrictive settings risks pushing inflation below target. "A wild card of course is the uncertain global environment which could also encourage the RBA to take the cash rate below neutral more quickly," CBA said. Economists at ANZ Bank said that an initial assessment of the monthly inflation data suggests a touch of downside risk to their forecast for the Q2 CPI. "There was deflation in the month across a range of recreation goods, as well as sharp deflation in holiday travel after Easter," ANZ added.

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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Tariff tensions, China signals firm response * Proposed U.S. shipping rules could disrupt trade and ports, industry warns - From April 17 * Chinese stocks higher as state support lifts sentiment * Deutsche Bank is now forecasting a 50bp RBA rate cut in May * Global turmoil raises chances of larger RBNZ rate cut - meeting tomorrow * Australia business confidence (March 2025) -3.0 (prior -1.0) * More - China’s Huijin vows to act as market stabiliser, boost long-term share buying * PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2038 (vs. estimate at 7.3321) * China commerce ministry: China will never accept the “blackmail nature” of the US * PBoC says it will provide lending support to China state fund Huijin if needed * Recap - Chinese state firms pledge support for markets amid tariff-driven selloff * China will Increase the proportion of insurance funds invested in the stock market * Australia: Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index(April) -6% m/m (prior +4%) * Japan's Nikkei rockets higher, up 6% * Trump will undergo his annual physical exam on Friday, April 11 * Japan to tap Economy Minister Akazawa for U.S. trade talks: FNN * US energy Sec Wright heads to Middle East for a 2 week visit * China state investment Chengtong says will increase holdings safeguard market stability * Fed's Goolsbee on 'almost unprecedented situation' - anxiety - warns of high inflation * Moody’s: Tariff shock sends global business sentiment into crisis territory * US Chamber of Commerce weighing a lawsuit to block new Trump global tariffs * U.S. 10-year Treasury futures fall another 10 ticks in wake of sharp reversal * ICYMI - "Global bank chiefs hold talks over Trump tariffs crisis" * New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q1 2025) 19% (vs. prior 16%) * Iran and the US are planning to meet in Oman on Saturday * Bessent says expects no trade deals by April 9, tariffs to hit then * BoA slashes target - warns Trump tariffs could shave 10% off 2025 S&P 500 earnings * Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: A fake headline takes the market for a ride * Bessent says Japan's non-tariff trade barriers are quite high * Gundlach says “no way” tariffs delay is going to happen, Trump will keep this going * Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 8 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas Markets across Asia remained on edge Tuesday as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions triggered moves in currencies and weighed on investor confidence. China vowed to "resolutely take countermeasures" after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods. Beijing warned it would "fight until the end" if Washington presses ahead, further intensifying fears of a global trade war. In response to market instability, China's state-owned investment arms, including Central Huijin, announced increased equity purchases to help shore up confidence. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) pledged lending support to Huijin if needed, reinforcing its role as a market “stabiliser.” Meanwhile, China’s yuan slid to its lowest level since 2023, with the offshore yuan touching a two-month low. The PBoC has allowed a near-linear depreciation in the onshore yuan, CNY, in recent days, breaking the symbolic 7.2 level—long seen as a line in the sand—signaling a policy shift and sending a message to Washington. In the U.S., Federal Reserve official Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed growing concern that escalating tariffs could reignite inflation and disrupt supply chains, echoing conditions last seen during the 2021–22 inflation surge. While hard economic data remains resilient, Goolsbee said rising uncertainty is clouding the outlook. In Australia, the tariff shock has started to bite into the data. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell 6% in April, its sharpest drop in nearly two years, retreating from a three-year high. Households cited growing concern over the economic outlook and personal finances. Business conditions remained largely steady in March, according to NAB, although the survey was conducted before the latest tariff developments. Deutsche Bank now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a 50 basis point rate cut in May, up from its earlier forecast of 25 bps, in anticipation of mounting economic headwinds. *** EUR/USD has been a more, bouncing from late US time lows circa 1.0900 to highs around 1.0980. GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD have all also shown some strength, USD/JPY yen backed off from 148.00 to be under 147.40 as I post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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