Episode 152 is out 🎙️
Host @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Daniel Saunders about a Bayesian decision theory workflow.
Big idea: stop optimizing for model accuracy and start optimizing for decision value.
🔗 lnkd.in/gw_uGaZc
#Bayesian #DecisionTheory #DataScience #Optimization
![Book cover for The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World by [Author Name]. The title appears in large text at the top, with the subtitle below. The design is minimalist, using a restrained color palette and abstract graphic elements that suggest tension and balance. The publisher, Stanford University Press, is listed at the bottom.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wdsu42renkroyeley5zatmxd/bafkreihe264bkphwzs2nzvlitkw6gwc7ga46q3intsmnzwsdp676pvvotm)
Book cover for The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World by [Author Name]. The title appears in large text at the top, with the subtitle below. The design is minimalist, using a restrained color palette and abstract graphic elements that suggest tension and balance. The publisher, Stanford University Press, is listed at the bottom.
Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026.
It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.
#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
The Value of Information in Economic Contexts
www.mdpi.com/2673-9984/12...
By Stefan Behringer and Roman V. Belavkin
From the MaxEnt 2024
#DecisionTheory #InformationEconomics #EconomicModeling
Mathematics psychology - science of decision making
#GameTheory #Strategy #DecisionTheory #Diplomacy #RiskAnalysis #Probability
Why do we prefer one thing over another? The concept of 'preference' shapes modern debates about decision-making, value, and desire, influencing fields from ethics to economics. (Q908656) #DecisionTheory #PhilosophicalPsychology
Motivation: Can LLMs be Rational? LLMs used as (rational) decision making agents. Rational agents should have: 1. Probabilistically coherent judgments 2. Transitive preferences Do LLMs adhere to 1 and 2? Simon Goldstein argued that they cannot (https://philpapers.org/rec/GOLLCN): A. Token prediction is structurally different from predicting the likelihood of an event B. When prompting an LLM to choose between actions, the model's preferences will violate the axioms of decision
Summary Rectify LLM vulnerabilities to Dutch books by ensuring probabilistic coherence via 1. Normalization pipeline 2. Quadratic program Rectify LLM vulnerabilities to money pumps by leveraging voting rules • Introduced (x-)IMDC as a method to calculate and explain a transitive ranking
Some argue #AI language models are incapable of #rationality because they violate axioms of #decisionTheory.
In the jargon, #LLMs fall prey to "Dutch books" and "money pumps".
Alina Chadwick et al. shared methods to rectify such vulnerabilities.
Follow Alina @ www.researchgate.net/profile/Alin...
People take to the streets for change, believing they're making their own choices,but behind strong emotions and loud slogans, it’s often the same system in disguise — manipulation just changes its wrapper, while the essence stays the same.
#Psychology #philsci #histsci #philsky
#DecisionTheory
How Movies Manipulate Our Subconscious ?
Read more 👉 www.patreon.com/posts/how-mo...
#PhilSci #Movie #Terminator #Psychology #Methodology #SystemTheory #Systems #ComplexityScience #BehavioralTheory
#Epistemology #CriticalTheory
#SocialPhilosophy #DecisionTheory
#Wisdom #Energy #Universe #model
Why Are People So Interested in How Much You Make?
Read more 👉 www.patreon.com/posts/mask-o...
#MetaSci #Methodology #PhilSci #Psychology #Philosophy #Life
#PhilosophyOfScience #BehavioralTheory
#CriticalTheory #SocialPhilosophy #DecisionTheory #HumanBehavior #Money #Income #Curiosity #Society
Maximal entropy in the moment body
Didier Henrion
Paper
Details
#MaximalEntropy #HenrionMethod #DecisionTheory
“A.E. Houseman said that accuracy in scholarly work was a duty, not a virtue. As Gloucester says in ‘King Lear’ “And that’s true, too.””
— Bernard Williams
Truth and Truthfulness.
#philsky
#Truth
#DecisionTheory
Jon Baron shared Peter Wakker's annotated bibliography of #decisionTheory
> 9000 entries!
DocX http://personal.eur
PDF http://personal.eur
BibTeX (no annotations, I merged redundancies) www.dropbox.com/scl/...
#cogSci #decisionScience #epistemology #philSci #library
Just learned about #superrationality, and vaguely recall a friend (game theory researcher) labeling me that way once. Was learning about #schellingpoints on Wikipedia from a story. I love #decisiontheory :). Also #gametheory, though #superrationality seems more the former to me.
Simon desafió la idea del 'homo economicus' perfectamente racional, introduciendo conceptos como la racionalidad limitada y el 'satisficing'. Su trabajo sigue siendo fundamental en la teoría organizacional. #DecisionTheory #OrganizationalBehavior
(8/8)
Simon desafió la idea del 'homo economicus' perfectamente racional, introduciendo conceptos como la racionalidad limitada y el 'satisficing'. Su trabajo sigue siendo fundamental en la teoría organizacional. #DecisionTheory #OrganizationalBehavior
(8/8)
The list of accepted papers for #LOFT2024 in Bayreuth is now online!
loftconference15.wordpress.com/2023/11/29/b...
Very much looking forward to the event, and much (de dicto and de re) gratitude to all of those who helped with the review and selection process!
#logic #decisiontheory #gametheory
Only about 2 days before the deadline for #LOFT2024. So come on everyone, let's do this! We have three stellar invited speakers (W. Kets, J. Staffel, and T. Bolander); Bayreuth is great in June; and it's only a 10-page extended abstract! #logic #decisiontheory #gametheory
Mesmerizing presentation by #Nobel laureate in #Economics Professor Lars Hansen @uncertainlars speaking @cisdm2 conf @isenbergumass @umassamherst. #risk #uncertainty #decisiontheory #climatechange
Is the conventional way of choosing to have a child rational? (#philosophy #rationality #economics #decisiontheory) http://buff.ly/1ctAQzP
