Should the conflict in the #MiddleEast subside in the coming weeks, #oil prices will drop rapidly leading to a strong #disinflationary impulse in the back half of the year, allowing the #Fed to continue easing.

#Labor market #slack is primed to act as a #disinflationary force - Not only is the #unemployment rate higher than it was during the last energy shock, but #job openings have also plummeted, chart #JonathanLevin
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Although #valuations are elevated across most asset classes, GS Research believes that resilient growth, #disinflationary progress, and #AI advances will continue to support global markets, while fiscal concerns and political events sustain demand for #gold - chart #GoldmanSachs

#China’s productivity advantage and #overcapacity mean that producer price inflation is low and #China will continue to export a strongly #disinflationary impulse to the rest of the world, chart #GoldmanSachs

This configuration implies: strong external #disinflationary pressure -
A clear terms-of-trade improvement for #Germany, no pipeline #inflation coming from imports, no cost-push pressure on domestic producers.

(my two cents)
The US is losing a key #disinflationary #supply shock that quietly supported the soft landing. Policy errors become more likely if labor-driven price pressures are mistaken for demand overheating.

just quit if the problem is too much

#familiar #tourist #location #windows #disinflationary

This will result in a continued #disinflationary impulse from cheaper #Chinese products, although these products will shift from #toys and shoes to #cars and #semiconductors.

A clear signal of global #disinflationary pressure:
#Switzerland’s Oct 2025 producer and #import price data continue to show broad-based #deflation at the wholesale level, reaffirming that #global goods #inflation has fully #deflated — and in some categories, is outright reversing.

3 months of falling import prices, led by double-digit energy declines, point to continued #disinflationary or even #deflationary pressures in #Germany.

#Switzerland
Although still close to its 10y average, the upward trend in #unemployment reflects further softening in labor demand. #real wages likely remained positive given the #disinflationary environment, chart @IMFNews www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

30 months of neg #German PPI strongly suggests that CPI will remain subdued, especially on the goods side, even if services inflation holds up somewhat. It’s a warning sign of entrenched #disinflationary dynamics, which could keep #Germany close to the “lowflation” trap ...

#Swiss #inflation in Aug 2025: goods prices remain in #deflation versus #service sector as the main driver of price pressure, #disinflationary trend continues, chart @SwissStatistics www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/...

(preliminary) #Germany #inflation CPI in July 2025: 2.0%Y, 0.3%M – the #disinflationary development continues with #undershooting in the offing, chart @destatis www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...

#euro areas #disinflationary process seems well anchored, while #ECB accepts the undershooting (2% target) with consent, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/markets/euro...

#euro area #ECB #hawks’ iconoclastic story telling – walking down a #disinflationary path and talking about data-dependency, chart @bloomberg.com TV live

The stronger #euro and the renewed #tariff threats are clearly increasing #disinflationary pressures for the #eurozone, risking #inflation #undershooting and increasing the likelihood of more #ECB rate cuts, chart #ING_Economics @carstenbrzeski.bsky.social

(right on cue?)
You gotta be fricking kidding me!
The current #inflation data suggests #eurozone may be entering a more challenging #disinflationary phase. Yet @ecb reminds us of #hyperinflation -
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/d...

This data pattern suggests #Germany - and potentially the broader #Eurozone - may be entering a more challenging #disinflationary phase that could require more aggressive #ECB intervention to prevent a #deflationary spiral and #support economic #growth.

#disinflationary momentum is accelerating: The progression from -0.2% to -1.2% in just 3-months indicates that #deflationary pressures are intensifying rather than stabilizing.

The strengthening of the #euro exchange rate and the drop in #oil prices as a result of erratic US economic policy have increased #disinflationary pressures in the #eurozone ...

#SNB keeps facing further #disinflationary pressure, combined with appreciation of #Swiss franc. What now? – chart (in-house, powered by #AI) CB approaches to #employment support in #disinflation

At the same time, the strengthening of the euro exchange rate,
not only vis-à-vis USD, will insert more #disinflationary pressure on the #eurozone.

#Fed --- Trump #tariff shock is either
#contractionary + #disinflationary; or
#contractionary + #inflationary
chart @dandolfa Prof David Andolfatto (ECON 101 without polemic) via #LinkedIn

The ongoing #disinflationary outlook suggests to expect #Swiss National Bank #SNB to cut policy rate at the next meeting on March 20th 2025, chart @swissstatistics
www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/...

#Europe’s #disinflationary path is expected to result in deeper #ECB rate cuts, chart @MorganStanley

(Why does @ECB like remaining behind the curve?) #Germany #inflation PPI in Oct 2024: -0.8%Y (Sept: -1.6%Y, Aug: -1.1%Y), +0.4%M --- PS: @ECB Minutes show controversial debate on #disinflationary trend, chart @destatis www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...

#inflation expectations have come down as well, confirming that households, businesses, and markets see the progress and believe the #disinflationary process will continue, chart @sffed @MaryDalyEcon
www.frbsf.org/research-and...

Historically, once global components start moving, they maintain the course and take time to reverse. This persistence and the recent decline in global components of core and noncore #inflation suggest that the world #disinflationary process will continue, chart Fed Gov Lisa Cook

A continuation of #Bidenomics would likely support growth-enhancing fiscal investments, increasing taxes and extending #deficit spending, while liberal #immigration policies could be #disinflationary by growing the labor force.