Significant results.

Should we move forward?

There's a fundamental asymmetry in how we react to "good" and "bad" results and it might affect how we make decisions.

1/

#CausalSky #EconSky #EpiSky #StatSky #ABTesting

Weekly respiratory viruses update - week 14:

- RSV activity remains 𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗗, with early indications of a gradual 𝗗𝗘𝗖𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘.
- Influenza and COVID-19 circulation are 𝗟𝗢𝗪 or continuing to 𝗗𝗘𝗖𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘.

More info: erviss.org
#IDsky #EpiSky #ERVISS #RespiratoryDiseases #COVID19

The Post on Log-Transforms Last Week Generated Many Insightful Discussions.

I don't agree with all the points, but I love the discussion!

Most of my favorite comments emphasize the same thing (either implicitly or explicitly): ...

1/

#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #EconSky

#episky #medsky

pay attention ⬇️

He was already unqualified to lead NIH. His term at CDC has expired.
Bhattacharya needs to go.
#episky #medsky 🧪

Image of a large pink dinosaur that welcomes people to Vernal, Utah. Headline: Measles cases rise across US, with outbreaks in multiple states and concerns about underreporting

Where is measles spreading in the US? What to know about six places where outbreaks and cases are growing. www.healthbeat.org/2026/04/09/w...

#publichealth #episky #IDsky #medsky

Sometimes you lose, evenwhen you're the winner.
#AcademicSky #ScienceSky #MedSky #EpiSky

Causal by Design – Statistical Thinking Well-controlled randomized experiments when analyzed in a randomization-respecting way are causal by design and need no causal calculus to infer causation. If an observational study has any hope of providing reliable causal inference regarding therapeutic comparisons, it must be prospectively designed. Incorporating target trial emulation in a non-designed retrospective observational study does not enable causal inference.

Causal by Design: new blog article on Statistical Thinking. fharrell.com/post/causal/ #Statistics #StatsSky #EpiSky

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗜𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘂𝘀!
@ecdc.europa.eu, @ec.europa.eu & #WHOEuro invite you to an online event:

"𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝘃𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸".
📅 Monday, 20 April 2026
🕒 13:30–15:30 CET
Registration: bit.ly/EIW2026ECDC

#EIW2026 #VaccinesSaveLives #IDsky #Immunisation #EpiSky

ECDC and Africa CDC pilot mobile application for event-based surveillance ECDC, in partnership with the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) and the Health Information Systems Program South Africa (HISP SA), are piloting a mobile application for event-based surveillance to enable the rapid collection and assessment of information about events that may signal a public health threat.

By strengthening how signals are captured and assessed, the pilot supports earlier detection and faster response.

👉 Learn more: www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-even...

#EpidemicIntelligence #PublicHealth #Surveillance #DigitalHealth #ECDC #IDSky #EpiSky

Diagram showing the current infection rates for influenza viruses in Germany over different seasons. Incidence rates for the age groups 0-14 years: 0.81, 15-59 years: 0.36, 60 and above: 1.44, with an overall incidence of 0.74. In week 14, there were 623 infections, compared to 5,341 in the previous season.

This week's influenza infections for Germany. 🦠
This week, 623 infections per 100,000 citezens were detected.

Created on 2026-04-09.🗓️
CREDIT: Data was obtained from the Robert Koch-Institute under CC BY 4.0 licence. #Influenza #Virology #Epidemiology #PublicHealth #Flu #EpiSky #IdSky #FluSky

does anyone have references that talk about authors' willingness to earnestly examine bias when their results confirm their hypotheses, vs. identifying biases in null findings? #episky #academicsky

How do mobile laboratories support outbreak response - directly in the field?

Join the next #GenEpiBioTrain training:
'Mobile labs and field sequencing during outbreaks'

📅 13 & 15 April
⏰ 09:00–12:30 (CEST)
💻 Online - bit.ly/4tx9B2p

#IDsky #EpiSky #MedSky #OutbreakResponse #PublicHealth

What are people’s favorite statistics, methods, data science podcasts? Things like @quantitude.bsky.social, @casualinfer.bsky.social, in the interim, etc? #rstats #stasky #episky

Here’s how 5 measles cases grew to 997 in South Carolina South Carolina’s huge measles outbreak may finally be ending. Here's how it happened

South Carolina’s huge measles outbreak may finally be ending. Here’s how it happened. www.healthbeat.org/2026/01/27/s... #IDsky #publichealth #medsky #episky

How does U.S. life expectancy compare to other countries? - Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker The U.S. has the lowest life expectancy among comparable countries and spends nearly twice as much as them on healthcare per person, on average.

In 2024, life expectancy in Canada rose slightly.

In USA, it recovered from COVID dip but remained far behind other developed countries.

Expectancy in years:
84.2 Switzerland
82.2 Canada
79.0 USA

#EpiSky
www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collec...

"After 4 years of failed aggressive livestock biosecurity interventions, the US avian influenza #H5N1 epizootic rages onward. For public health, veterinary health, and economic reasons, it is now time to develop a H5N1 vaccination program for dairy cattle."
#EpiSky #IDSky

doi.org/10.1093/infd...

Pediatric Nicotine Exposures Reported to US Poison Centers This cross-sectional study investigates trends in pediatric nicotine exposures by product type and exposure route from 2016 to 2023 in the US.

#TobRegSky #PedSky #MedSky #EpiSky #policysky #polisky #addicitionsci #neuroskyence🛟🫁🌍⚖️

Increased nicotine poisonings of small children by inhalation from e-cigarettes compared to ingestion route between 2016-23. Will increased prevalence of nicotine pouches reverse the trend ?

I just saw a paper using Poisson regression with the "Age-standardised" as the outcome. This feels very weird to me, as I expected something as count ~ vars + offset(log(py)).
Can anyone explain to me why it would be a valid parametrisation?
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
#episky #econsky #rstats

Upcoming | GSIDD

👇 Upcoming opportunities for the Infectious Disease Dynamics community!

ℹ️ View deadlines for open opportunities ranging from training programs to conferences & calls for article contributions.

📧 Have opportunities to add? Please reach out to info@gsid.org

#IDsky #EpiSky #PublicHealth #OneHealth 🧪

1/ Hiring: 2️⃣ Senior Academic Leaders in Global Health Data Science & Mathematical Modelling. #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪

Collab between

🔹Data Science & Computational Modelling Unit (DSCMU) at Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Research Programme (MLW)

🔹Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) at University of Liverpool

Silicon sampling seems like something that, in 50 years, people will look back on and be like, ‘I can’t believe that was a thing.’ Like smoking or asbestos or SAS. #statsky #episky

The carcinogenicity of e-cigarettes: a qualitative risk assessment Considering carcinogenic risk for vapers in comparison with never-users, findings 2017–25 from all types of investigation record increasing concern and tak

#TobRegSky #PedSky #MedSky #Pulmsky #EpiSky #addictionsci #policysky #polisky #neuroskyence #neurosci 🛟 🫁💊🧪 🌍⚖️

The carcinogenicity of e-cigarettes: a qualitative risk assessment

A recent bugbear: applied methods papers showing 'Method X outperforms Method Y' using simulation or even real data. E.g., imputation method comparisons where data deletion is employed and accuracy measured with RMSE. Your results are conditional!
#rstats #statsky #episky

#PedSky #MedSky #Pulmsky #EpiSky #policysky #polisky #PainResearch🛟 🫁💊🧪 🌍⚖️

Happy Easter Holidays! 🐰 Our latest research in Environments. Herbivorous avian bioindicators help with AMR research in landscape epidemiology. #Episky #landscape #epidemiology
www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/13...

Reverse Bayes:

Imagine you run a randomized controlled trial;

The results come with a p-value of 0.03 -- significant at the customary level of 0.05.

But are they credible?

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#CausalSky #EpiSky #StatSky #EconSky #ABTesting

Is Half of All Advertising Spend Wasted?

In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:

- David Rohde on why even granular digital data often can't tell you which half of your ad budget is working

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#CausalSky #EconSky #EpiSky #StatSky #MLSky

Happy Easter from the Eurosurveillance team!

The new issue is out, featuring a study by Croci et al. indicating that influenza vaccination may offer protection against heart attack and stroke even in breakthrough infections.

Read it here: www.eurosurveillance.org/content/euro...

#EpiSky #MedSky

Should I do it? I just need to find that fabulous presentation I did the other day...

#AcademicSky #MedSky #ScienceSky #EpiSky