Original post on streetwi.se

Try keeping a decision journal. Write down your probability estimates for different strategies and review them later. It’s the best way to improve your judgment over time.

Think in shades of gray, not black and white. Being roughly right is better than being exactly wrong […]

Predictive Systems…
and Control.

Planning software wants to guess the future. But great systems don’t guess. They shape.

The best model isn’t the most accurate, it’s the one that gets you closer to making better moves; accepting that we are all blind.

#ProbabilisticThinking #SystemsDesign

Beyond Glorified Curve Fitting: Exploring the Probabilistic Foundations of Machine Learning | Towards Data Science An introduction to probabilistic thinking — and why it’s the foundation for robust and explainable AI systems.

Instead of just trying to be “more accurate”, a probabilistic approach becomes more robust against errors and uncertainties, more flexible and therefore more adaptable to new situations, and more comprehensible and interpretable. #ML #AI #probabilisticthinking

7/ Build a big enough sample.
Track it honestly.
Refine only when the data gives you a reason, not an emotion.

This is what separates amateurs from professionals.

#TradingMindset #Discipline #ProbabilisticThinking #SampleSize

Trading is about discipline, patience, and trust in probabilities. Which of these points resonates most with you? Let’s discuss below! 💬
#TradingMindset #ProbabilisticThinking #Discipline

Original post on mastodonsweden.se

7/ Trading is NOT about being right—it’s about managing risk and letting probabilities play out.
Every single successful trader embraces this reality.

The question is: Which trader are you?

Are you still trying to predict the future, or are you ready to shift to a probability-based mindset? […]

Key Takeaway:
Trading isn’t about being right or wrong. It’s about following a process, managing risk, and allowing the math to work for you over the long term.

What’s your biggest challenge in embracing probabilities? Let’s discuss below!
#TradingMindset #RiskManagement #ProbabilisticThinking

12/ By embracing patience, discipline, and unwavering commitment to your system, you’ll position yourself for sustainable success in trading.

Which of these principles resonates with you the most? Let’s discuss below! 💬
#TradingMindset #Discipline #ProbabilisticThinking

Large-scale software delivery is like betting strategies in Vegas: success depends on managing uncertainty, not eliminating it.

By embracing #ProbabilisticThinking, leaders shift from rigid plans to adaptive strategies.

Learn how in this #InfoQ article: bit.ly/4g8iuJs

#ProjectManagement #Agile