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#thinicemacro
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How #ECB has responded to #oil shocks in the past and what it means for now (incl. this week's #ECBmeeting). #Iran #inflation #energy #oilshock #Europe #centralbanks
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
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🛢️Fun fact on #US #economy and #oilprice spike👇
share of #gasoline and #energy in #US #consumer #spending at all-time low of 2% in Dec 2025 (latest PCE), equal to Jan 2002 and lower only during Covid (WTI 19$).
#FOMC
#Iran #war #oil #oilprice
#ThinIceMacro
#globalmacro
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‼️ Joint piece with @sandertordoir.bsky.social on the #ECB #geopolitical tools and how it advances the role of the #euro 👇
#CER
#ThinIceMacro
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www.linkedin.com/posts/spyros...
In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
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“Just don’t mention the #hike.” My #comms guide for the #ECB meeting - see my latest #substack newsletter, sub is free 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECBmeeting #euro #EURUSD #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
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Exploring #Hassett at the #Fed 🪑
US #monetarypolicy will be #procyclical next year, but the #economy will limit the scope for #rate ✂️ even for a Hassett Fed. #Boom in ’26 could transition to #bust in ’27.
My latest #Substack 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ThinIceMacro
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open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Fed #rstar #centralbanks #bonds #ECB #monetarypolicy
#globalmacro #thinicemacro
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open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My #ECB review. Two interesting morsels out of an otherwise boring meeting. #eurozone #euro #thinicemacro
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Why #Germany’s #industry continues to struggle: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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#ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
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The #ECB #governingcouncil will keep rates unch in September. I exp staff #inflation #projections to be lowered slightly. That should make for more nuanced #communication than in July.
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
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Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
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Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
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My Thin Ice Macroeconomics #blog on #Substack has been growing nicely.
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics
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ECB Strategy: Back to the Future open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
A close, critical look at the #ecb's updated #strategy. #Lagarde #thinicemacro #globalmacro #centralbanks #eurozone #europe #europeaneconomy #markets #euro
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Inching Towards Fiscal Dominance open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Check out my latest #Substack, subscription is free!
#FederalReserve #Trump #fiscaldominance #Fedindependence #inflation #governmentdebt #debt #USTreasury #fiscalpolicy #QE #Powell #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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The #oilprice is up 15%+ past days. That’s not moving the needle for #USconsumers - the share of #gasoline and other #energy products in total #consumption spending (#PCE) is a v low 2%. The divergence has increased since the #pandemic due to strong income growth. #Fed #thinicemacro #globalmacro
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Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Mission Accomplished open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
I maintain my baseline for a 1.75% terminus in September.
#ecb #ecbmeeting #governingcouncil #lagarde #eurozone #euro #inflation #tariffs #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Rates Cut While U Wait open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My preview of next week's #ECB meeting!
#Lagarde #tariffs #inflation #euro #Trump #centralbankmeetings #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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We the People vs Capitalism open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... There is a tension between #MAGA and investors: the latter want constraints on the executive. #Trump #dollar #USTreasuries #debt #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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Do Sell in May open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Why the current #sweetspot for #USequities can't last. #tariffs #stocks #fed #Trump #taxcuts #USTreasury #profits #margins #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
The #risks of the #Mar_a_Lago approach to the #USdollar and the next potential battleground between the #Fed and #MAGA: the Fed’s network of #swaplines with other #centralbanks. #globalmacro #thinicemacro
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