This risk may have inflicted more damage had Trump not won by a clear enough margin that Democrats accepted the results.
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Another risk that was dead-on but could have been more destructive than it turned out to be.
Read more on Middle East on the brink:
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Closing in on the top of the list, coming in at #2 for #TopRisks2024: Middle East on the brink.
In January, we said the region was a tinderbox, and the number of players carrying matches made the risk of escalation exceptionally high.
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Up next in the #TopRisks2024 reflection: #3: Partitioned Ukraine
We said that Ukraine would be de facto partitioned in 2024. All in all, Ukraine is losing, but Russia isn’t winning.
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Up next on our #TopRisks2024 retrospective: #4 Ungoverned AI
In January, we said that gaps in AI governance would become evident in 2024, and that disinformation and proliferation stood out as near-term risks.
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Next up on the #TopRisks2024 look back: #5: Axis of Rogues.
In January, we said that the disruptive potential from the growing cooperation of the world’s most powerful rogue states—Russia, North Korea, and Iran—should not be underestimated.
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If anything, we underestimated its impact for 2024 – it could have been #3 or #4.
Read #6: No China Recovery
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Coming up next in our #TopRisks2024 countdown at #6: No China recovery.
We expected a challenging year for the Chinese economy, where green shoots would only raise false hopes of recovery as economic constraints and political dynamics prevented a durable growth rebound.
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Next up for #TopRisks2024: The fight for critical minerals
We said that governments around the world would take protectionist measures that disrupt the flow of critical minerals, increasing price volatility and reshaping downstream supply chains.
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In the end, we were right about the drivers and the political outcomes – even if the worst-case economic scenarios were avoided.
Read #8 No room for error:
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Coming in at #8 for #TopRisks2024: No room for error.
We anticipated that the global inflation shock that began in 2021 would continue to exert a powerful economic and political drag in 2024.
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Next up on the #TopRisks2024 countdown, #9: El Nino is back.
2024 was the hottest year on record, which threatened lives and livelihoods and undermined economic progress in the world’s most vulnerable countries.
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Just out! Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2024. Check out where danger lurks in the coming year.
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