S&P Global PMI Shows Sharpest Rise in UK Manufacturing Input Costs Since 1992 Amid Iran War Disruptions A flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey released on March 24, 2026, reveals that British businesses experienced the slowest pace of activity growth in six months during March due to the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran. The composite PMI, covering manufacturing and non-retail services, fell to 51.0 from 53.7 in February, remaining in expansion territory but signaling clear economic strain. Manufacturers faced the most dramatic impact, with input costs surging at the fastest monthly rate since the 1992 sterling crisis following Black Wednesday. This sharp acceleration was driven primarily by soaring prices for fuel, transportation, and energy-intensive raw materials, as Brent crude oil rose nearly 50% and natural gas prices jumped over 90% since hostilities began on February 28. Businesses responded by raising their own prices at the quickest pace since April 2025, while employment in the sector declined for the 18th consecutive month. The report highlights how the conflict has led to lost business through customer risk aversion, supply chain fractures, travel disruptions, and higher interest rates. Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson at S&P Global noted that these figures demonstrate materialized downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation. The Bank of England now faces a delicate balancing act to prevent an energy-driven inflation spike from becoming entrenched without overly tightening policy and worsening the slowdown. Markets have priced in a potential 0.5 percentage point Bank rate hike by year-end. Even with ceasefire hopes, elevated energy costs are expected to persist due to damage to Gulf infrastructure, underscoring the war's broad economic ripple effects on the UK.

S&P Global PMI Shows Sharpest Rise in UK Manufacturing Input Costs Since 1992 Amid Iran War Disruptions

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UK August flash services PMI 53.6 vs 51.8 expected * Prior 51.8 * Manufacturing PMI 47.3 vs 48.3 expected * Prior 48.0 * Composite PMI 53.0 vs 51.6 expected * Prior 51.5 Key Findings: * Strongest rise in UK private sector business activity since August 2024 Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The flash UK PMI survey for August indicated that the pace of economic growth has continued to accelerate over the summer after a sluggish spring, the rate of expansion now at a one-year high. The services sector has led the expansion, but manufacturing also showed further signs of stabilising. "It’s evident from survey measures of order books, however, that the demand environment remains both uneven and fragile. Companies report concerns over the impact of recent government policy changes, as well as unease emanating from broader geopolitical uncertainty. Goods exports are still falling especially sharply. "Payroll numbers also continue to be cut at an aggressive rate by historical standards as firms cite weak order books and concerns over rising staff costs due to the policies announced in the autumn Budget, which also contributed to persistent inflation pressures. "While the rise in business activity signalled by the PMI alongside the uplift in inflation to 3.8% in July lower the chances of further rate cuts this year, more data are required to assess both the sustainability of robust economic growth as well as the stickiness of the upturn in price pressures. Among a divided Bank of England rate setting committee, the perceived need for any future rate cuts will be very much data dependent." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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