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Posts by John P Hayes
Did you even publish a paper with Elsevier if you didn’t have to try three different email addresses and multiple login attempts?
Major policy reversal in just a year in #extractiveindustries. Likely near-daily announcements of major projects in coming months. Curious to see what the long-term effects will be on timelines, from approval to shovels in the ground.
We (the original researchers, not the poster) develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence – including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles – indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, finance and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel VAR setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our US index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upwards since the 1960s. The index for January 2025 reached its highest point of any time since the mid 1990s, when the primary index begins. It's higher than during the worst months of the pandemic, when global trade and economic activity slowed abruptly, causing a massive global recession. Greater policy uncertainty, or the degree to which markets and expert forecasters disagree about the likely trajectory of the economy, is known to delay investment and hiring (Bernanke 1983), reductions in spending by households and firms, and constrained credit, with more adverse effects for developing countries. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index measures the degree to which businesses, investors, and economic forecasters are uncertain about government policies related to fiscal and monetary policy, trade policy, and regulation. Link for data: https://www.policyuncertainty.com/.
There you have it. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (www.policyuncertainty.com) just hit an all-time high, surpassing its previous high from May 2020 - the teeth of the #COVID pandemic.
Consequences: worse investment climate, higher risk premia, (likely) higher interest rates...
🦋 A starter pack of academic journals in Political Science & Public Policy 🏛️
#PolSky #PoliSky #PoliticalScience #PolSci #PoliSci #PolScience #PolTheory #SocSky #Politics #PoliticsSky #PolicySky #PhilSky #PolPsy #PolPhil #PublicPolicy #policy #politics #governance #democracy #AcademicSky #Academia
The fall of Northvolt - from Europe's battery champion to bankruptcy - shows the harsh realities of competing with China in battery manufacturing. 1/
#ThrowbackMonday #weeklyreading
What is the political meaning of macroeconomic stabilisation policies based on the managed exchange rate regimes❓
Ruth Felder & Hepzibah Muñoz Martinez show how these policies reformulated capitalist social relations in #Mexico #Argentina👇
doi.org/10.1016/j.po...
Explore the dynamics of policy diffusion!
Dive into PSJ's Policy Diffusion Collection, featuring research on how policies spread across sectors, nations, and regions.
Read articles here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1...
#PSJ #PolicyStudiesJournal
New Publication in The Routledge Handbook on Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement. The book is completely open access.
Our chapter compares Mexican mining community experiences with FPIC and conflict.
If you are interested in multi-stakeholder participation in resource development, check it out!