Yikes is the contiguous US dry

Here in Chicago for @sejorg.bsky.social and looking for an afternoon session to pop into?

Join @metcalfuri.bsky.social & @climatecentral.org this afternoon for "Attribution Science: Communicating Links Between Extreme Weather and Climate Change"

⏰ 2:45pm CT📍 Room H

Thank you for saying what you did!

Category 4 Typhoon Sinlaku powers through the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands » Yale Climate Connections Sinlaku is the 10th Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to hit a U.S. state or territory in the past 10 years — as many Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfalls as the U.S. suffered in the prior 57 years.

Typhoon #Sinlaku hit the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands this morning as a Cat 4, making it the 10th Cat 4 or Cat5 tropical cyclone to hit the U.S. in the past 10 years — an unprecedented battering by these intense storms. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/cate...

One of the ways news media often fail us is by giving us the microscopic rather than the telescopic view. Everything I mention in this essay is well-documented, but the dots are mostly not connected to make visible this death by a thousand cuts our country is undergoing.

I think we've become numb to how every month is now a top 5 warmest on record globally. It's literally been 3-4 years since a monthly temperature WASN'T (at the time) in the top 5.

THIS IS NOT NORMAL!

Orthographic map showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in March 2026 relative to a 1981-2010 baseline. This visualization shows North and South America. The only colder than average area is over Canada.

Orthographic map showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in March 2026 relative to a 1981-2010 baseline using ERA5 data. This visualization shows Africa, Europe, and western Asia. Most areas are warmer than average.

Orthographic map showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in March 2026 relative to a 1981-2010 baseline using ERA5 data. This visualization shows Australia, Antarctica, and Asia. Most areas are warmer than average.

March 2026 was the 4th warmest March on record globally. Note the high-amplitude wavy pattern of anomalies across the N. Hemisphere.

This month was about 1.48°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. Last 12-months have been about 1.43°C above it.

Info: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...

🌀 El Niño webinar alert 🌧

Join CCNow tomorrow, Thursday, April 9, at 1pm US Eastern Time, as we dig into the science behind this year's predicted "super El Niño" and how to make the climate connection.

RSVP: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Expert panelists will be:

⭐ @weatherprof.bsky.social, WFLA NBC Tampa
⭐ @tdiliberto.bsky.social, @climatecentral.org
⭐ Shannon Mullane, @coloradosun.com

CCNow's @david-dickson.bsky.social will moderate.

Come with questions!

Does that mean there won't be an El Nino this year? No. There's just a lot more uncertainty than I've seen on the interwebs. (One reason you wouldn't see me mentioning a strength forecast with any confidence until May/June)

Yup, we're smack dab in the spring predictability barrier where model forecasts made now for peak El Nino strength in the winter don't perform particularly well. And we know models in spring tend to latch onto month to month warming in the tropical Pacific and go hog El Nino wild.

It very well could reach that level! We just know that model forecasts made this time of year can be overconfident, esp wrt El Nino events. There are still plenty of things that could occur that would hinder El Nino development that we can't expect models to forecast well right now.

Map of precipitation anomalies for the contiguous US during 7 strongest el ninos. Blue meaning above-average precip generally covers the southern US but not always.

Bar graph showing the match between observed winter precipitation and the expected El Nino pattern

OH! Also. A Super­cali­fragilistic­expiali­docious El Nino doesn't guarantee the US sees typical El Nino impacts. Some places won't. See below. (Yikes look at how different the 2015-16 Megazoid Mothra Pikachu El Nino was vs. the expected El Nino pattern.)

Sure, it might mean you are not able to hype this as the strongest El Nino since the Cretaceous (El NinOMG), but the forecast is still plenty warm enough. Of course, it's still April. Let's see what happens through June and if any enhanced trade wind periods occur.

Line graph with different colors showing forecast of ENSO through rest of the year.

I'm gonna keep saying this. If you're interested in what's forecast for this potential El Nino, you really should not be using the Oceanic Nino Index. Use the RELATIVE Oceanic Nino Index. nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde... #FriendsDontLetFriendsUseONIandOldClimatologies

A decent burst of tropical westerly winds (1st frame), being helped now by TC Maila and Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu, has triggered off another Kelvin Wave in the ocean (3rd frame). What does this mean? The chance of El Nino is rising (but still some way to go).
www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assort...

Gotta love those swirls forming off a WWB along the equator

Use this tool to plot the ENSO forecast using the Relative Oceanic Nino Index.

For those wondering, I'll share my thoughts on the latest ENSO - El Nino forecast on Thursday once NOAA's forecast comes out. I'll lay out all the factors to look for ahead, and just why forecasters are wary of strength forecasts made in the spring.

Figure 3 from Jong et al. (2026, ERL) showing Northeast extreme precipitation frequency difference (2060-2089 minus 2029-2058) for SSP5-8.5 in the warm and cold season and SSP5-3.4OS in the warm and cold season.

Very excited to share the published form of our new #OpenAccess study: doi.org/10.1088/1748... (led by @bortingjong.bsky.social).

Given significant increases in Northeast U.S. extreme precipitation trends, we then test responses to rapid greenhouse drawdowns using a 25-km resolution climate model.

Writer and Associate Producer | Climate Central Climate Central is seeking a media savvy writer and associate producer with experience in science communication. This person will help create reporting resources on a range of topics related to climat...

Super cool #scicomm role just opened up with @climatecentral.org

I mean.... good gracious look at that early snowmelt in Colorado

👀 This 🧵 is nuts. 🤯 Very nervous about what this snow drought out West means for the rest of the year (and years to come.)

Graphic showing seasonal snowpack evolution with rain-on-snow, warm spell and snow-eater heat wave rapidly depleting spring snowpack. Graphic courtesy a multi-institute study currently under peer review, led by Alan Rhodes at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

California's fire danger, for now, is low. Grasses are green and snowmelt is keeping vegetation watered in the Sierra. But a "snow-eater heat wave" worries scientists and officials come summer.
www.sfchronicle.com/weather/arti...

NASA worldview imagery of the Sierra Nevada
February 20
March 2
March 9
March 22

The NT has really copped it this wet season. This is a good read, though sad as well. Doesn’t mention 2025 bringing the biggest fire season since 2012 or hottest Oct on record, so I’d argue 7 crises in 7 months. (Feb 2026 was 3rd wettest Feb on record)
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Sunset over LA - one of the areas currently experiencing extreme early season heat.

RAPID ANALYSIS: It would be ‘virtually impossible’ for the record-breaking March heat currently scorching the U.S. West to occur without climate change.

We are seeing summer-like temperatures arrive exceptionally early from the Pacific to the Rockies this week. 🧵1/4

In awe with how fast @wwattribution.bsky.social got this out. Also in awe with how absurd this heatwave is out west.

Thank you @frediotto.bsky.social !

Congratulations!!!!!

ICYMI: Enjoy a way too long thread about El Nino I posted last night