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Posts by Alexander Lanoszka

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What the War Against Iran Means for the U.S.-South Korean Alliance South Korea’s security is no longer confined to the peninsula. That is the real lesson from the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. And if decision-makers

"The U.S.-South Korean alliance is more mature militarily than it is strategically. It is well designed to deter North Korea, but less prepared for external shocks that can still weaken South Korea’s ability to fight, sustain, endure, and thrive." warontherocks.com/what-the-war...

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Why Diesel Prices Surge Faster Than Gasoline in Every Energy Crisis | OilPrice.com Diesel prices rise faster than gasoline during global disruptions because tighter supply, global demand exposure, and limited refining flexibility make it the most structurally constrained fuel in the...

"Why does diesel react so much faster than gasoline? The answer isn’t because of a short-term anomaly. It’s structural. Diesel sits at the center of the global economy in a way gasoline simply does not." oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

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Canadian military procurement faces ‘persistent challenges,’ audit warns - National | Globalnews.ca The audit said it found "persistent challenges" in the procurement system, even though it is “evolving rapidly” under Prime Minster Mark Carney's government.

The audit on Canada's military procurement system "warned that even uncomplicated purchases tended to take on average a decade to complete. More complex projects to add new capabilities took anywhere from one to three decades to close out ..." globalnews.ca/news/1180561...

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Wartime Surge in Iran-Tajikistan Trade Draws Scrutiny | OilPrice.com A sharp rise in Iran-Tajikistan trade during the early months of war is prompting concerns that the relationship may be facilitating sanctions evasion, dual-use goods transfers, or critical supply flo...

"Bilateral trade between Iran and Tajikistan has skyrocketed during the first quarter of 2026 .... The jump in trade raises questions about whether Iran is trying to open a conduit via Tajikistan to procure technology and goods with military applications ..." oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

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A terrific new report on NATO's Eastern Flank:

"The GLOBSEC Annual Battle Readiness Report provides the first comprehensive, comparative assessment of how frontline states are translating political will and increased defence spending into real operational readiness."
www.globsec.org/publications...

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No infantry needed. Ukrainian robots, for first time, capture Russian position — Zelenskyy Read more

"Ukrainian defenders managed to take control of an enemy position using drones and ground robotic systems. Infantry did not take part in the operation." Moreover, robotic systems completed 50% more tasks in March than in February. The future is here, indeed. newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/no-infa...

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This May Be Our Best Look At Ukraine’s Secretive New Surface-To-Air Missile The Koral surface-to-air missile apparently made its public debut as part of a recent lineup of homegrown weapon systems. The Koral surface-to-air missile apparently made its public debut as part of a...

A run-down on the development of Ukraine's secretive new surface-to-air missile, the Koral. It could offer greater range than the currently field FrankenSAMS, replace longer-ranged Soviet-era systems, and supplement the costly Patriot and SAMP/T. www.twz.com/land/this-ma...

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Operation Epic Fury U.S. Aircraft Losses Visualized Here are all the known American aircraft losses during the nearly six week-long war with Iran.

"After flying more than 13,000 sorties, the United States lost 39 aircraft throughout the 39-day operation, with another 10 damaged to various degrees, according to TWZ’s internal tracking. The actual number is likely higher, as we only confirm losses via open sources." www.twz.com/air/operatio...

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"Magyar has been, so far, careful to present himself as a sovereign conservative, not a Brussels federalist. But a Budapest that simply operates within the norms of EU membership already transforms the geometry of European decision-making." www.globsec.org/what-we-do/c...

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A majority of Canadians also indicated that they do not think that CUSMA ending would have a negative impact on the national economy. About 90% of trade with the United States is tariff-free thanks to CUSMA. For a country so dependent on int'l trade, its society must understand trade policy better.

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A majority of Canadians reveal that they do not understand the EU.

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There Are Now Over 50,000 American Troops in the Mideast

"The arrival of 2,500 Marines and another 2,500 sailors is keeping the number of American troops in the Mideast region at over 50,000 — roughly 10,000 more than usual — as President Trump decides on his next step in his month-old war in Iran." www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/u...

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What is the future of GCAP? The Big Ask | No. 12.2026

What is the future of #GCAP?

We asked 8 experts in today’s #BigAsk

✍️ Dr Przemysław Biskup, Arun Dawson, Wg. Cdr. Ben Goodwin MBE, AM (rtd.) Sir Christopher Harper KBE FRAeS, @davidjair.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, Rena Sasaki, @gesineweber.bsky.social

#BritainsWorld

3 weeks ago 2 1 0 0
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Interesting JSS article by Bence Nemeth:

"While acknowledging that the Warsaw Pact was fundamentally coercive and dominated by a hegemonic power, this paper argues that its centralised model nonetheless offers valuable analytical insight [for NATO and the EU]." www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

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Poland opens talks on joining next-generation fighter program Poland is in talks about joining the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), the British-Italian-Japanese project to build a sixth-generation stealth fighter, Polish Deputy Minister of State Assets Konrad...

"Poland is in talks about joining the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), the British-Italian-Japanese project to build a sixth-generation stealth fighter, Polish Deputy Minister of State Assets Konrad Gołota has said." tvpworld.com/92208516/pol...

4 weeks ago 2 2 0 0
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Indigenous-owned Chatham-Windsor manufacturer eyes defence sector expansion An Indigenous-owned company with operations in Chatham and Windsor is seeing the payoff in the defence sector and preparing to grow its footprint.

As a Windsorite, I'm delighted to contribute to local reporting about what Canada's new defence spending and industrial strategy could mean for the Windsor-Essex region. windsorstar.com/news/local-n...

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Source: National Security Strategy, The White House, 2025, p. 29.

www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

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"But the days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over—not because the Middle East no longer matters, but because it is no longer the constant irritant, and potential source of imminent catastrophe ..."

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Trudeau, Germany's Scholz cool to the idea of exporting Canadian natural gas to Europe | CBC News Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his German counterpart, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, appeared to pour cold water on the idea of shipping Canadian natural gas to Europe when asked about the proposal Monda...

Astonishing how a series of terrible policy decisions made on energy alone in the span of a few years has made this crisis much worse than it should have been. Here are just two that come to mind.

1. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

2. www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/e...

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Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs

"European defence ministries must show greater willingness to enter into contractual arrangements with new players, as only contracts can lead to the necessary growth and scaling up of new tech and the competition that is needed to reduce prices for defence products." www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...

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Can't even criticize Paul Bremer anymore for his lack of foresight and planning. smh

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We Were Right About Havana Syndrome In late 2017, while traveling to Moscow on official duty, I experienced a sudden, debilitating health incident. After a long and arduous battle with the

"For the victims of Havana Syndrome, the past several years have been marked by physical, emotional, and professional loss. None of us is the same person we were before our injuries. Even more painful has been the sense of moral injury and betrayal." warontherocks.com/2026/03/we-w...

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Piece w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social & @lanoszka.bsky.social out in Apr. 2026 issue of Journal of Conflict Resolution. We surveyed publics in 24 countries in 2023: Calibrated US restraint/support for Kyiv was reassuring. Strong resolve isn't the only thing that can reassure.

doi.org/10.1177/0022...

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Allies fear Iran war will leave them without US weapons they bought European and Asian countries worry the Pentagon is burning through munitions so fast that it won’t have enough to send the weapons they have purchased.

So much for buying American.

"“It is very frustrating, the words are not matching the deeds,” said an Eastern European official ... “It is pretty clear to everyone that the U.S. will put their own, Taiwan’s, Israel’s, and hemisphere priorities before Europe.”" www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

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Quenching the Nuclear Stockpile’s Thirst for Tritium Most accounts of the Manhattan Project tell a familiar story: American scientists relentlessly racing to design and build the fission bombs that would

"Tritium is the seemingly inconsequential item upon which everything else depends. Without it, there can be no modern nuclear weapons, and thus no nuclear deterrence, the cornerstone of American defense." warontherocks.com/2026/03/quen...

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1 in 4 Americans back Trump’s Iran strikes, most say he’s too quick to use force: poll New poll shows 27% of Americans approve U.S. military strikes on Iran ordered by Trump, with Republicans supporting 55%-32% while Democrats oppose 73%-7%.

"About one in four Americans, but a [small] majority of Republicans, say they approve of the U.S. military strikes on Iran ordered by President Donald Trump, according to a new poll."

No doubt will high energy prices and inflation erode support for this campaign.
www.foxnews.com/politics/1-4...

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What Iran Might Do When It Has Nothing to Lose The risk of a retaliatory attack outside the Middle East is growing.

"When Time magazine this week asked DJT about the threat to the US homeland, he said, “I guess” Americans should be worried. “We plan for it. But yeah, you know, we expect some things. Like I said, some people will die. When you go to war, some people will die.”" www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

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France’s nuclear initiative: A step toward Europeanising deterrence France’s plan to expand its nuclear arsenal and deepen cooperation with European partners marks a step towards ‘Europeanising’ deterrence. But stronger conventional forces and clearer strategies for m...

"Yet nuclear cooperation alone will not resolve Europe’s deterrence challenge. The credibility of a more European deterrence posture will depend on Europe’s ability to manage escalation below the nuclear threshold ..." www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

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Chart of the week: Russia lost more territory than it gained for the first time since 2023 Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bir...

Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group.

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As global markets tanked over Iran, U.S. stocks were mostly unscathed. Here’s why. There is an old saying in markets: Buy when the bullets (or bombs or missiles) fly.

As the Dow Jones falls over 1000 points this morning, it is important to be petty and to remember that someone published this analysis just yesterday: "U.S. stocks might be more insulated from a conflict in Iran than bearish investors had expected."
www.marketwatch.com/story/as-glo...

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