Congrats!👏🏼

The Causal Revolution: Why Research Design trumps (regression) models for causal claims YouTube video by Alexander Wuttke

How to explain the “credibility revolution” in a few minutes?

"I" "made" a short video that tries to show why clever (natural) experiments and research design beat pure statistical adjustment for causal claims.

I am genuinely curious what methods people think:
youtu.be/Fv14ktwA31Q?...

Multiverse studies seem doomed to perpetuate a cycle of "look it varies!" "but not that much" "does too!".

Here's another exchange that I had missed.

"Robustness is better assessed with a few thoughtful models than with billions of regressions"
doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

Threats to social status and support for far-right political parties How economic threats to social status in the form of unemployment risk and rental market risk affects support for the far right in Europe.

I wrote a longer essay on how social status matters for far-right support. Many still wrongly associate the far right with the economically left behind. Taking social status seriously also cautions against the idea that deliverism will win back far-right voters.

equitablegrowth.org/threats-to-s...

Ständig werden aus statistisch völlig irrelevanten Unterschieden alarmistische Schlagzeilen produziert. Ist das noch Clickbaiting oder schon Desinformation?

🥳 I'm excited that my project on opinion formation around the future of citizenship has received funding by @dfg.de

🔎 On this highly polarized issue, I will investigate opinion and opinion change in 4 migration societies. 💡This will include an issue-specific analysis of the transnational cleavage.

What’s behind the rise of far right politics in Europe Far-right parties are gaining popularity worldwide. Why is that? Political researcher Daphne Halikiopoulou reveals how rising leaders tap into people’s economic insecurities and distrust of institutio...

Thrilled and honoured that my Vitoria Gasteiz TEDx talk is now featured on the main TED.com website- I discuss how far-right parties tap into people’s economic insecurities and distrust of institutions to rebrand their exclusionary policies: www.ted.com/talks/daphne...

BJPolS abstract discussing the political role of small business owners in advanced economies, including the impact on elections and policy.

NEW -

The Politics of Small Business Owners - cup.org/3GSWFBd

"experience of being a small business owner leads people to adopt conservative views on government regulation"

- Neil Malhotra, Yotam Margalit & Saikun Shi

#OpenAccess

🚨 Next GLES data release for #BTW25: GLES Cross-Section 2025 (ZA10100)
💻📝 CAWI/PAPI
👥Sample = 7,337
📅 Fieldwork: 24/02/25 - 23/04/25
🌍CSES Module 6 included
📥 doi.org/10.4232/5.ZA10100.1.0.0

🚨 New GLES release for #BTW25: GLES Rolling Cross-Section 2025 (ZA10101)
💻📱 CAWI | 👥 daily samples, total n = 8,562
📅 Fieldwork: 06/01/25 – 31/03/25
🔄 Pre- and post-election waves in RCS design plus supplementary wave
📥 doi.org/10.4232/5.ZA...

BJPolS abstract discussing a study on the impact of populist rhetoric on voter preferences and political competition.

NEW -

Winning Votes and Changing Minds: Do Populist Arguments Affect Candidate Evaluations and Issue Preferences? - cup.org/4jGIsVP

- @markuskollberg.bsky.social, @benlauderdale.bsky.social &
@chriswratil.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract discussing the negative effects of partisan polarization on democratic choices and the benefits of promoting the choice of third-party candidates, along with the impact of civic education on reducing polarization and enhancing democratic norms.

NEW -

Choosing Democracy Over Party? How Civic Education Can Mitigate the Anti-Democratic Effects of Partisan Polarization - cup.org/4iooX3d

- Melek Hilal Eroglu, Steven E. Finkel, @anjaneundorf.bsky.social, @aykutozturk.bsky.social & Ericka G. Rascón Ramírez

#OpenAccess

Don't miss the chance to join this #GESISworkshop!

Exceptionally long, but familiarly pompous and uniformed, puff piece on the “good” nativism of Mette Frederiksen in Denmark.

Completely ignores most basic data and, of course, any academic research. Some quick points 🧵

Basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Datenquellen zeigen wir in unserem Research Brief eine Sache: Verluste an die radikale Rechte sind nur marginal relevant für die elektorale Krise der Sozialdemokratie. Anders gesagt: heutige Wähler von radikal rechts sind keine früheren Sozialdemokraten.

Whole journals would go belly up

Startseite des AUTNES Online Panel Study: Data Dashboard. Die Grafik zeigt die Entwicklung des Vertrauens in den Nationalrat von 2017 bis 2024. Die Farbskala reicht von dunkelrot (sehr geringes Vertrauen, 0) bis dunkelblau (sehr hohes Vertrauen, 10). Die Mehrheit der Befragten vertraut dem Parlament nur wenig oder teilweise.

📊 Neues AUTNES Daten Dashboard ist live! 🎉

Es bietet Einblicke in die politischen Entwicklungen in #Österreich von 2017 bis 2024. Basierend auf der #AUTNES Online Panel Study lässt sich die Dynamik der öffentlichen Meinung über mehrere #Wahlen hinweg erkunden. 🗳️🔍🧵

🔗 131.130.71.40:3838/autnes/

A bar graph showing the issues that German voters say are the most important for their decision: peace/security 48%, the economy 41%, social justice 40%, immigration/asylum 27%, protecting the climate 23%, pensions 21%

In Europe, the #farright 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀 the #immigration issue. Yet, following a knife attack, the leader of the centre-right #CDU has decided to go 'all-in' (his actual words) on immigration. But even after days of relentless coverage, international security & the economy 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 top the electorate's agenda.

A few thoughts on the urban-rural divide in the upcoming German election (Thread). First: the benchmark. The 2021 election saw the strongest urban-rural divide in decades. With AfD and Greens, two parties had more distinct rural/urban voter support than any party had in recent elections 1/8

Could you maybe provide a rough timeframe when we can expect the pre-release data? Thank you for your valuable work!

Our article 'A Crisis of Political Trust?' led by @viktorv.bsky.social is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social! We use >3,000 surveys in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019, finding that trust in representative institutions has generally been declining in recent decades. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...