What Orbán’s departure means for Hungary and for Europe Hungary’s voters have ended Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. Tisza’s win is a unique chance to restore democracy – and a time-limited opportunity for the EU to emerge stronger. 

For a detailed analysis of what Orban’s departure means for Hungary and what the EU should do now, read this @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight www.cer.eu/insights/wha...

Magyar needs the EU but the EU needs Magyar, too. And in this mutual dependency, neither should lose sight of the rule of law. That's what I'm arguing in this @financialtimes.com op ed www.ft.com/content/8800...

What Orbán’s departure means for Hungary and for Europe Hungary’s voters have ended Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. Tisza’s win is a unique chance to restore democracy – and a time-limited opportunity for the EU to emerge stronger. 

Reposting my longer analysis on the Hungarian election outcome & implications for Europe from yesterday. Two key arguments:
◾Magyar has the mandate to rebuild democracy but it will not be a fast process – nor should it be
◾The EU shouldn't drop the ball. Monitoring is key
www.cer.eu/insights/wha...

If the #Hormuz strait remains closed, European governments should avoid the huge fossil fuel subsidies they provided in 2022, argue @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social in their new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight.

Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

Energy prices set to rise as last Gulf Tankers reach Europe Energy analysts have warned of surging energy prices beyond already elevated levels, as the last vessels carrying oil and natural gas from the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict have reached…

"Europe’s gas and electricity price rises have been modest so far, but we should not expect that to continue if the strait remains closed," @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social wrote for the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank.

buff.ly/xTCbZmm

Energy shock 2.0: Lessons from 2022 for the Hormuz crisis If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, Europe will face as serious an energy crisis as it did in 2022. This time, energy poverty policies must be more targeted, and electrification more ambitious.

This is the paper to read on the implications of the Hormuz energy shock for the European economy - and how to cushion the blow most effectively.

The core idea - to draw lessons from the flaws of the 2022-2023 response - is spot on.

By my colleagues Elisabetta and John.

www.cer.eu/insights/ene...

Excellent point by @bxlthor.bsky.social -- over the 2022-23 energy crisis, EU government's emergency measures cost them *three* times the current EU annual budget.

We really need to stress how expensive it is to keep bailing out fossil fuel users! - In 2022-23 EU governments spent €540 billion on emergency measures to lower energy bills – most of which were untargeted measures to lower prices. - Looks like we may be headed down a similar road again.

Europe's #gas and #electricity price rises have been modest so far, but we should not expect that to continue if the strait remains closed. #Hormuz

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

For the second time this decade, Europe is facing an energy crisis. Policy-makers should-

-Encourage the public to reduce energy consumption
-Accelerate Europe’s electrification
-Provide targeted support to households

Excellent piece by @elisabettaco.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social

Energy shock 2.0: Lessons from 2022 for the Hormuz crisis If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, Europe will face as serious an energy crisis as it did in 2022. This time, energy poverty policies must be more targeted, and electrification more ambitious.

It's *really* important that diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz succeeds. @elisabettaco.bsky.social and I think long-term closure of the strait would lead to an energy shock of a similar scale to 2022, but with weaker domestic demand
www.cer.eu/insights/ene...

@johnspringford.bsky.social has more on the macroeconomics of this fossil fuel shock below 👇

Extremely important and timely piece by my colleagues @elisabettaco.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social .

In a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social find that if the Strait of #Hormuz remains closed, the energy crisis could be worse than it was in 2022. #energycrisis

Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

To make better use of public money and support Europeans out of this fossil fuels shock -- governments should direct the funds to support measures that can DURABLY curb consumption of oil and gas. In this sense, France's approach seems much more forward-looking.

Like in 2022-23, emergency measures are already proving expensive -- and in some countries, like Italy and Spain, governments have allocated more funds to fossil fuel subsidies in the past 45 days than to support for electrification over a whole year!

4. and most importantly -- to make this the last fossil fuel crisis Europeans have to suffer through, strengthen support for electrification NOW, with cheap loans for EVs and heat pumps.

Reducing dependence on imported fossil fuel subsidies is a priority for energy security AND affordability.

3. Roll out public information campaigns to reduce energy consumption that is less needed to sustain domestic economic activity, as suggested by the International Energy Agency.

What should European governments do?
1. Keep the price signal - avoid slashing fuel taxes for all or capping energy prices, which would act as an additional fossil fuel subsidy and increase their consumption at a time of scarcity.

2. Target support through cash transfers to the energy poor

Overall, European policy-makers should assume that a plausible worst case for the crisis is a worse oil shock than 2022-23 and a similar gas shock, but a smaller electricity shock on average, with more variation across countries.

Oil & oil products: if oil exports from the Gulf continue to be cut off, we are looking at a much larger disruption to oil markets than in 2022 - price increases would be much greater.

Electricity: the outlook for natural gas also affects electricity markets. In those European countries that are still largely dependent on gas power generation, electricity prices could also rise by similar amounts to the spikes in 2022-23.

Natural gas: unlike Asia, Europe is not facing an immediate supply shortage.
> If the cease-fire holds and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened: limited price shock.
> With a long-term or even permanent closure of the strait: European energy shock similar in scale to the 2022-23 energy crisis.

New insight from @johnspringford.bsky.social and me. Second fossil fuel crisis in 5 years, and again due to a war someone else started - a bitter déjà vu for Europe.

Governments be drawing the right lessons from the 2022-23 crisis, and design policy support accordingly.

Really? No comment?

The failure of the #WTO 'reform ministerial' exposed just how hard meaningful reform has become. But it also revealed where the multilateral trade system may be heading next.

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @antonspisak.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/ozfBGS1

Spread the word. I've had the privilege of working for @cergrant.bsky.social, @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social's founding director, for 13 years. After 28 years in charge, he will step down at the end of the year. It will take someone with outstanding qualities to replace him. Details on our website.

The Hungarian election is coming up, and there is some hope for the opposition party. What are the implications for the EU? My brilliant colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social has got you covered with everything you need to know 👇

Here are 10 consequences of the US-Israel attack on Iran - a thread. US soft power is damaged. To launch an attack without clear aims or an exit strategy has upset allies - in Europe, Gulf & Asia - who must bear the economic, political and military consequences. /1

And close to home, look at how different energy policy efforts are playing out in Spain vs Italy: if only Italy could focus on expanding its renewables base, instead of wasting time attacking the ETS and giving out discounts to gas power production...