Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through Hormuz
The model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per barrel depending on the length of the closure www.dallasfed.org/~/media/docu...
Image is WTI price of $114.58
WTI Oil at $114.56 (gasoline will be close to $5 nationally if this gets above $120)
Sweet 16 programs bring in more than twice as much revenue, on average, as eliminated teams. How is it changing the tournament?
From the March payroll report:
INCOMES: A drop in the average workweek in March led to very little growth in the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours). The 12-month change ticked down to 3.9%
Baltimore’s Key Bridge collapsed two years ago, and its rebuild is set to open in 2030. How are 38,000 commuters getting home in the meantime?
Plus: The Fed vs. energy shocks, a grim new economic forecast and a conversation with the CEO of Save the Children US.
Today on Marketplace.
Full story on why (I hope!) the Fed is less likely to raise #rates in response to higher oil and #gas prices: www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...
“…that’s what I have learned over the last few years is that people see higher prices, but their long run still seems to be relatively #stable,” Blank said. “I have interpreted that as the Federal Reserve has done a really good job of ensuring people that they take this very seriously” #FOMC #Oil
Enjoyed joining @marketplace.org to discuss #Fed concern around higher #prices: “people are starting to think, maybe this is just normal. This is how it is…They’re definitely concerned that people are starting to assume that there’s another #shock coming,” he said of the Fed…”
Goldman on Oil shock impact on labor market:
"we expect the unemployment rate to rise 0.2pp in total to 4.6% by 2026Q3. The impact largely reflects lower hiring and modestly higher layoffs in industries most exposed to discretionary spending."
* Best coaching performances of the last 20 years: '25 Cignetti, '12 Saban, '13 Jimbo
* Most likely to surge after a change in '26: OSU, VT, Stanford
* Most likely to crumble: Mean Green, Angry Wave, UConn
I had fun with coaching (and coaching change) data:
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Alabama makes their 13th Sweet 16, 5th under Nate Oats, and 4th in a row out of 27 total NCAAT appearances. Only Houston has a longer current streak.
“.. A similar pattern was observed in oil markets.”
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/v...
The bar is really high for UConn making me go “WHAT?” but … WHAT?
might have actual twins here
This is completely unbearable. But also like… why are his insane ramblings never summarized like this in the media? We gotta wait for a substack guy to put it together like this?
Is 7 different guys with a 3 in a single half good?
Florida had to be a little concerned in the first half when Iowa was 1-for-11 from 3 and leading.
The run-up in oil is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught.
This was already complicated. Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh promised a break with his predecessor—not continuity.
Just a regular Nostradamus over here
@cjzero.bsky.social I need the Auburn dweebs bored on their phones still shot, por davor
Unsurprisingly, this was the highest scoring first round in at least 30 years. Related, how bad was basketball in 2013?
2026: 76.1
2017: 75.4
2024: 73.3
2016: 72.5
2002: 72.4
...
2013: 64.5
Feels weird that Arsenal and City haven't played in the Premier League since September. So much has changed.
Plus:
• FPL tips
• Games we're watching
• Stuff we're reading
www.thetransferflow.com/p/the-efl-cu...
Powell on leaving Fed Board prior to January 2028: "“I have not made that decision yet. I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve.”
IMO, best if he stays ...
All the ways Save America Act would hurt Republicans:
-10 states with lowest passport ownership all voted for Trump
-GOP women 2x likely as Dems to change last name & have mismatched docs
-rural voters who skew R forced to drive up to 8 hours to show citizenship docs at election office
Highest gasoline prices since Russian invasion of Ukraine
www.gasbuddy.com/charts
Do not be mad at SMU for being deceptive about a player's status. Be mad at the NCAA for having a system that rewards teams for being deceptive about a player's status. (I'll also allow being kinda mad at those in CBB media who uncritically laundered SMU's claims of Edwards' health.)
The Champions League round of 16 was ... odd. Lots of wild swings, lots of blowouts, almost no real drama. But it set up an absolutely dynamite quarterfinal round. I wrote about it.
www.espn.com/soccer/story...
30-year mortgage rates are up around 0.5 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 6.5%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That’s back to where they were before the Fed pivoted last August to restart rate cuts.
