Oil price development depending on the duration of AS/Israel attacks on Iran and the closure of the Hormuz Strait
Oil will hit $190+ if the Gulf conflict is not ended swiftly, with dire impacts on global growth and inflation trajectories
#inflation #oil #Iran
More here: solability.com/news-insight...
Full analysis of economic consequences and regional breakdowns is available here: solability.com/news-insight...
oil disruption 1973 vs 2026
15% of global oil supply is down.
Never before has oil supply drop so sharply by so much as now. And there are no additional capacities to make up for lost supply.
If this war does not stop immediately, we face the prospect of losing 2+% of global GDP, and may well face prolonged stagflation.
The higher the share of renewable electricity in a country, the lower the exposure to GDP loss because of the US-Iran conflict
solability.com/news-insight...
2 trillion dollars, or 2% of global #GDP - that is what is at stake from the war on Iran and the closure of the #Hormuz Strait
solability.com/news-insight...
Sustainable competitiveness and high oil prices because of the iran war
When you're not sustainable, you are less competitive.
Higher share of renewable electricity in the energy mix means lower energy costs and less exposure to #oil and #LNG and #gas price volatility shocks - not only, but particularly so in times of #geopolitics without a #strategy or a plan.
Wouldn't it be nice to have cheap, predictable and domestic renewable electricity -
instead of being exposed to and dependent on the volatility of gas/oil prices caused by geopolitical madness?
Not surprisingly, the SOCIAL CAPITAL INDEX 2025 is dominated by Scandinavian & European nations.
However, Timor-Lest shows that social capital is NOT NECESSARILY tied to high income: availability & affordability of basic services and equality are equally important.
solability.com/the-global-s...
Good question.
There is money to made with most of that, so the likelihood of the the forces of the market looking after that aspect is fairly high. Grid capacity could be a bottleneck.
Why oil gas and coal are no longer competitive in a few simple charts:
#econsky #oilprice #energytransition
solability.com/all-news/fos...
There were people who wanted to ban gasoline cars to protect the horse business in the 1920s. They might be successful in delaying the transition for a wee bit - but even if they would in the US, the rest of the World is moving ahead.
In addition, most car manufacturers will likely fade out or end production of gasoline cars when the see no more market potential, so the transition between 2030 and 2035 could be fairly abrupt
Also, the development in the bigger markets are likely to to accelerate the transition in countries that are currently further back (which is not included in the mathematical models)
Thank you for your interest. This forecast is based on mathematical models that assume some kind of linearity;. In practice, once a threshold of 80-85% is reached, the market for the the "old" product simply disappears, and goes to 100% very quickly (as opposed to 96 in one year, the 97, ...).
There is no power against a cheaper and better product. Even if it were possible in the US, the rest of the World is still going to transition to electric cars
Electric cars will capture at least 80% market share by 2030
We can expect electric car market share to be 80% (most likely more) by 2030.
Based on conservative calculations, using market development data, technology penetration curves, and a range of both conventional and AI forecasting tools to forecast future car market developments.
#econsky
Electric car sales will be 80% of care sales in 2030
80% market share for electric cars in 2030?
Using weighted averages of multiple forecasting models, integrating cost developments and technology adaption, suggest and EV adaption rate between 60-90% in 2030.
#EVs #Transition
In the absence of real energy policies, the markets are the strongest drivers of the energy transition.
Early adapters- e.g. Uruguay, Denmark, China - gain competitive advantage from lower energy cost, energy independence and freedom from oil price volatility.
#sustainability #econsky
Comparisonof energy cost: wind and solar are the cheapest form of energy
Renewable electricity from wind and solar - including storage (batteries) - is now the cheapest form of energy available to humanity.
Cheaper than oil, gas and coal.
#renewables #solar #wind #energytransition #oilprice
Full report by Lazard avialble here: www.lazard.com/research-ins...
2024 22%
2025 estimate at least 26%
Batteries are getting better and cheaper by the day, and with that EVs. Technologically and cost-wise this is like horse against car in the 1920s
Electric vehicles are technological superiority. have much higher efficiency, are much easier to assemble and maintain, and much lower operating cost.
Gasoline cars will be a thing of the past, soon
Market share of electric vehicles will be near 100% in 2030
Share of electric vehicle sales will be near 100% in 2030
Adaption of new technologies have often been underestimated (@iea.org estimates 40% market share by 2030). However, simply extrapolating historic trends gets us to 100% between 2030-2035.
#econsky #energysky #EV
Sustainable evolution
Sustainability is not a revolution, it is a natural evolution. Sustainable management means incorporating wider issues and a longer time-horizion as basis for investment and decision making.
#ESG #Sustainability
Replacing the oil income
Solar, wind and batteries are getting cheaper by the way.
How are the Gulf countries going to deal with the coming decline of the oil income?
solability.com/global-susta...
