If AI is boosting productivity, why isn’t it showing up in the macro data? A short note on where the gains get lost (aka "the ladder of leakage"): open.substack.com/pub/teraalla...
#dataisbeautiful
#AI may be boosting firm-level #productivity, but at the moment, UK employment is declining in sectors with the least AI exposure. See also here: open.substack.com/pub/teraalla... #dataisbeautiful
AI exposure is often read as a measure of job risk.
But in principle, it tells us what AI could do—not what will happen to jobs or wages.
Outcomes depend on how jobs are structured and how firms adopt the technology (and other factors).
substack.com/home/post/p-...
The image shows an informational graphic with a green background, a red arrow pointing upward, and text stating, 'If you missed it... What can we learn about NHS productivity from developments in the wider economy? NHS Productivity Commission Webinar recording Watch now.'
🎥 CATCH-UP: What can we learn about NHS productivity from developments across the wider economy? With @teraallas.bsky.social from our #NHSProductivityCommission, this webinar heard from a panel on what we can learn from sectors and industries beyond health care.
Watch now⬇️
https://bit.ly/4b3Ao05
AI exposure ≠ impact.
In the recent "Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI" paper there is no clear relationship between AI exposure and expected job growth.
A useful reminder that task-level measures don’t translate directly into labour market outcomes.
teraallas.substack.com/p/ai-and-job...
Of the businesses that say they have adopted, or are planning to adopt, #AI, very few say they have experienced or are expecting headcount reductions as a result. Consistent with most AI benefits coming through in top line sales and innovation, so far. #dataisbeautiful
Here's the most basic reason #AI is not yet boosting productivity (or displacing jobs): the majority of businesses are not actively using it! Technology diffusion is slow (until it isn't). More of what to expect our article: mck.co/4b8w4wh #dataisbeautiful
UK business investment was down sharply (-2.5%) in Q4 2025, against a volatile trend. What keeps UK investment rates at close to the bottom of the league table? My future research will illuminate, but risk aversion could be a key driver. #dataisbeautiful
Interesting how the oil forward curve has shifted -- across all maturities, but much less at the far end. Of course, the future remains highly uncertain and, due to lags in price pass through, we'll likely feel the effects for a while to come. #dataisbeautiful
Not headline-grabbing, but important and predictable: the jobs which with the biggest impact on job demand from #AI are those that were already in decline due to previous digital technologies: admin and customer service roles that don't require much education. #dataisbeautiful
There's a lot of confusion about what impacts #AI will have on jobs and wages. No surprise, given that it's not a simple question! There are many, many determinants beyond the now-popular 'exposure' measures. I like this framework. #dataisbeautiful
Asking ChatGPT to critique Claude's output, and the other way, is fun. The revised draft is typically still not brilliant, but it is often a step forward. But I wanted to go up a level and ask what to explicitly tell them to avoid. This rings so true; and I'm impressed with the self-awareness!
To contribute to the debate about whether #AI will displace a lot of jobs (rather than just tasks), I’m resharing something I wrote in 2017. The core point still holds: automation ≠ job losses. This isn’t the whole story — but it’s a key part of it. bit.ly/4dQvwwO #dataisbeautiful
Tera Allas: “The NHS is undermanaged. Only about 2% of the workforce is management versus 9.5% in other sectors.”
New Productivity Puzzles episode: What does it take to improve NHS productivity?
Featuring @healthfoundation.bsky.social's report: From diagnosis to delivery: www.health.org.uk/reports-and-...
As @teraallas.bsky.social notes, the NHS is undermanaged.
Listen to the ep.: podfollow.com/productivity...
#Finland tops the World Happiness Report rankings — again. One intriguing clue as to why: Finns feel little pressure to show how good they are or seek others' admiration. Freedom from that pressure may be central to a good life. How very Buddhist! #WHR #wellbeing #dataisbeautiful
Great to see The Economist reporting on the World Happiness Report. I wonder if Patrick has ever met a Finn or been to Finland, though? Article here: bit.ly/3NNu5EZ See also my earlier post: bit.ly/4rK6i6A #WHR #wellbeing
Fascinating to see the latest World Happiness Report (lnkd.in/gZAgdzuU ). #Finland continues to top the leaderboard of the world's "happiest" countries. It's certainly not because of the weather - the Finns get, on average, a shockingly low 5 hours of sunshine a day. #wellbeing #dataisbeautiful
So much for #inflation returning to (or staying below) target this year... or possibly beyond. While the oil forward curve doesn't look too scary (yesterday's chart), markets are clearly expecting 2nd order impacts: 2-year inflation expectations up sharply. #dataisbeautiful
Heightened oil prices are bad for both #growth and #inflation. But the impact depends on how long prices stay high - and even in crises there are self-correcting forces at play. In GBP, the oil forward curve doesn't look too scary at the moment. #dataisbeautiful
UK households' net worth in 2025 was less than in 2020. A necessary but painful correction, that could mean more resilience going forward. But need to steer investment towards productivity-enhancing assets. Article, Revamping Britain’s balance sheet for growth and prosperity, here: bit.ly/3PpLhAF
Why are oil prices such a big deal for the global economy? It's pervasive: a lot goes into transport, involved in the production and consumption of nearly all goods and services. It's also a key feedstock for lubricants, plastics, fibres... so price shocks spread. #dataisbeautiful
A lot of the global balance sheet is vulnerable 'paper wealth'. The UK balance sheet had already seen a significant adjustment, so might now be more resilient. Nevertheless, investing in productivity-enhancing assets remains a priority. New article: bit.ly/3PpLhAF #dataisbeautiful
Great illlustration of the gap between AI's capabilities and how we use it currently (from: bit.ly/3Nh2c81). No wonder we don't yet see many aggregate impacts in the UK labour markets (even though inside jobs, ways of working are changing rapidly). Our article: mck.co/4b8w4wh #dataisbeautiful
Really pleased to have contributed to this BBC article (and programming). It's not all doom and gloom. Longer-term, there are uncertainties and risks, and the job market is in a transition, but right now there are high quality roles available for AI-literate candidates. www.bbc.com/news/article...
The Spring Statement 2026 was indeed a fiscal event with zero new policy measures and, in total, the smallest number of policies costed since 2014 [when I started tracking this]. Let's hope it is a start of a trend, towards fewer but more material reforms. #dataisbeautiful
