REFLECTING ON HURRICANE SEASON 2025. Big questions remain. We see the catastrophic consequences of Hurricane Melissa. But in the final analysis, was it the strongest landfall? Google's AI model triumphed. What more is coming? And how weird was it not to have a US landfall? More at HurricaneIntel.com
There's a decent chance that HURRICANE SEASON 2025 IS OVER. Hostile upper winds are increasingly dominating the tropics. If this is it, the season ends with near normal numbers EXCEPT for 3 Category 5's including Melissa, which was stunningly and tragically off the charts. More at HurricaneIntel.com
FRIDAY TROPICS: Hurricane #Melissa whipped by Bermuda last night. Sustained winds peaked at about 83 mph with gusts over 100 mph at Dockyard Point on the north side of the island. With Melissa gone, the tropics look look quiet into mid November, at least. More at HurricaneIntel.com
#MELISSA UPDATE: The only good news from Melissa's assault is that Kingston, Jamaica was only swiped, so it can act as a base for the massive recovery effort to come in that country. Help is needed. Tonight, the hurricane will punch at Bermuda as it accelerates by. More at HurricaneIntel.com
MELISSA UPDATE: Hurricane #Melissa was rated as a 185 mph Cat 5 at landfall based on data from the Hurricane Hunters. But computer analysis put it at 215 mph. All the data will be examined by the NHC. The result will be interesting. On alert in the SE Bahamas today! More at HurricaneIntel.com
MELISSA UPDATE: Landfall at or near Cat 5 at around 8 AM local time/9 AM ET tomorrow. Hurricane Hunters measured winds to 240+ mph at ~1,000 feet. It's critical that everyone find as strong a building as possible to hide from the wind above flood waters and storm surge. More at HurricaneIntel.com
MELISSA UPDATE: #Melissa exploded into a Cat 4, but for now the intensification has leveled off. The intensification isn't as important as the size, however, as to how many people are impacted. Jamaica's capital Kingston is very vulnerable to storms coming from the south. More at HurricaneIntel.com
MELISSA UPDATE: #Melissa is on the cusp of hurricane strength. Rapid intensification is forecast with the storm near Cat 5 Monday night south of Jamaica. A catastrophic event is possible from extreme wind, feet of rain, and up to 10 feet of storm surge. It begins late tonight. HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: A shift in the forecast for #Melissa over the weekend raises hope that the strongest winds will stay offshore of Jamaica, with increasing odds of a direct hit over the western end tip next week. In any case, days of heavy rain in Jamaica, Haiti, and the DR. More at HurricaneIntel.com
LIVE HURRICANE Q&A TODAY at 4 PM ET with me and the director of the National Hurricane Center Dr. Mike Brennan. Join us live on YouTube, Facebook, TikTok, X, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Send in your questions on Melissa or anything tropical on your mind. See you LIVE at 4 PM TODAY!
#MELISSA UPDATE: Potential for catastrophic impacts in the Caribbean. The forecast is reaching some clarity. Melissa looks likely to track over or near Jamaica while strengthening dramatically Sun-Tue. Outer bands will continue to impact Haiti, the DR, & Puerto Rico. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: There is a reasonably strong consensus that Tropical Storm #Melissa will turn north next week between Mon and Thu. The longer it waits, the stronger and farther west the impacts will likely be. A Cat 3-5 is possible and devastating flooding. Stay informed. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: On the cusp of Tropical Storm #Melissa. Computer forecasts offer a variety of possibilities. The FOX Weather Tropical Threat analysis shows the uncertainty into next week. Extreme rainfall is likely on the mountainous islands near where Melissa stalls. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: It looks likely that Tropical Storm #Melissa will form in the Caribbean. If the system organizes in the next couple days, the consensus of the computer forecasts is that it will quickly turn north toward Haiti and the DR. Otherwise it looks likely to drift. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: The robust disturbance tagged Invest #98L is pushing into the Caribbean. Squalls with heavy rain will continue into tomorrow on the affected islands. The system stalls about Wed and forecasts diverge. Stay informed in Puerto Rico & surrounding islands. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: The Atlantic Tropical Disturbance will cross into the southeast Caribbean tomorrow into Monday bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the affected islands. We'll watch for slow development next week, but it's complicated. And 75 years since Hurricane King. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: The disturbance in the tropical Atlantic will have higher odds of development next week. Two scenarios look likely if it develops. It lingers in the Caribbean, or it gets scooped north by the jet stream. Plan to stay aware next week in PR and the islands. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: Long-range computer forecasts still show the possibility that the Tropical Disturbance in the eastern Atlantic will develop in the central or southern Caribbean in about 8 or 9 days. The odds of a threat to land over the next 10 days are very low. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: The Tropical Disturbance near Africa is slowly making its way toward the Caribbean. Significant development is not expected before it reaches the islands early next week. Odd are in the low range that the system will develop late week, but its possible. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: The weather pattern is taking on a wintertime look with strong low-pressure systems dipping south into the tropics creating hostile conditions. But long-range forecasts say that a disturbance off Africa still could organize in the Caribbean next week. More at HurricaneIntel.com
STORM & TROPICS UPDATE: The coastal water levels will still peak exceptionally high during the high tide cycle this afternoon from NC to New England. Lower peaks overnight. Lorenzo formed, but isn't a problem. A disturbance to watch for next week is just off Africa. More at HurricaneIntel.com
NOR'EASTER & TROPICS UPDATE: The nor'easter will maximize its impact from VA to the Northeast today & the Northeast to New England tomorrow. Major to moderate flooding along the entire coast and in inland waterways. And something new coming off Africa in the tropics. More at HurricaneIntel.com
STORM UPDATE: The #CoastalStorm / Fall #Nor'easter is forming near Florida and will strengthen as it moves north. Effects peak in the South today then the peak wind & coastal flooding impacts from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow and Monday. Stay aware. More at HurricaneIntel.com
STORM UPDATE: A coastal storm forming over Florida will strengthen as it moves north. Impacts peak today in the Southeast, tomorrow night in eastern NC, and Sunday and Monday from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Major flooding & wind damage along the coast are possible. More at HurricaneIntel.com
LIVE HURRICANE Q&A TODAY at 4PM ET. Join me and FOX Weather Storm Specialist Mike Seidel LIVE on YouTube, Facebook, TikTok, X, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Send in your questions about hurricanes, the forecast big coastal storm, or whatever's on your mind. See you then!
TROPICS & COASTAL STORM UPDATE: #Jerry to brush the northeast Caribbean islands today. Heavy rain possible after the storm passes from the moisture tail. And a major non-tropical East Coast storm begins Saturday. Major coastal flooding & damaging wind possible. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: Tropical Storm #Jerry is struggling against some hostile upper winds but is still expected to be a hurricane over or near the northeast Caribbean late tomorrow and Friday. And watching for a nasty coastal storm to affect the Southeast to New England. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: #Jerry looks likely to soon form and reach the vicinity of the northeast Caribbean Thurs. The computer forecasts show a variety of intensities, but mostly not a rapidly intensifying storm. And a potentially bad coastal storm for the East Coast this weekend. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: The broad Atlantic disturbance is showing some signs of developing but thunderstorms are still disorganized. Computer forecasts agree that the system will be near the northeast Caribbean Thu or Fri, but they don't agree how strong it will be. More at HurricaneIntel.com
TROPICS UPDATE: The Atlantic disturbance - tagged Invest 95L by the NHC - has a high chance of developing into at least a depression. The consensus of the computer forecasts is that the system will be in the vicinity of the northeast Caribbean Thu or Fri. Stay informed. More at HurricaneIntel.com