Caribbean Braces for Melissa’s Flood Threat

Tropical Storm Melissa, now churning west through the Caribbean, could unleash catastrophic flooding across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. 

#TropicalStormMelissa #Haiti #DR #Caribbean #98L #Florida #StormMelissa #wx #FLwx #JAMwx #tropicswx

#Invest98L now 50mph #tropicalstorm #melissa to peak at =>80mph C1 #Hurricane
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic E #Cuba to begin preps now!
#Bahamas #TurksandCaicos to watch closely!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Tropicalstormmelissa #HurricaneMelissa

#Invest98L now #tropicalstorm #melissa
More details at 11AM EDT
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Cuba #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos interests to begin preps now!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea #Tropicalstormmelissa

Atlantic Outlook 8am

Invest #98L is close to becoming a tropical storm. The next name is #Melissa.

‼️ East #Cuba, #Jamaica, #Haiti, #DominicanRepublic
👀 #PuertoRico, #CaymanIslands, #Turks and #Caicos, #Bahamas, West #Cuba

#Atlantic

Tropical wave in the Central Caribbean has been designated as Invest #98L, and with sustained winds already at 45 mph, it is likely to become Melissa later today. #tropics #atlantic

D143 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8am EDT
#Invest98L has 100% chance to be TC in 2 and 7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Cuba #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos interests to Watch closely!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea

#98L (soon-to-be Melissa) is looking impressive this morning in the Caribbean.

NEW: the 8 AM outlook is up to near 100/100 chances for #98L. Tropical Storm Melissa will be named later today.

Good morning! We should see #98L named later today. The 2 AM outlook notes that the system continues to get better organized. The next name is Melissa.

Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - local updates from the islands stormCARIB presents in depth information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical storms and hurricanes threatening the Caribbean islands. Special local hurricane correspondents are ...

#98L Caribbean Hurricane Network, www.stormcarib.com

these are such good peeps... keep them in your good thoughts - they may need some rain to fill cisterns, but nobody wants damage...

Sorry for the delay. Busy evening. Here’s your 0z spaghetti models for #98L

HurricaneCity: Atlantic hurricane tracking Hurricane coverage, tracking, city database of landfalls and latest & best performing hurricane models.

@hurricanecity.com

#WXsky peeps, ck out Jim's site: hurricanecity.com 4 best performing models on #98L over the last 24 hrs & more

Chris of @tropicalatlantic.com & Jim did fantastic upgrades this yr, has been a fav of mine for decades+ & such good people...

info packed site, no hype ! #bestwx❣️

9:00 PM - A line of moderate to heavy showers, associated with trailing convergence behind Invest #98L, is moving toward T&T. Rainfall is forecast to move across Tobago within the hour, and across eastern areas of Trinidad near midnight.

ttweathercenter.com/2025/10/20/t...

D42 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8pm EDT
#Invest98L has 90% chance to be TC in 2/7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Nicaragua #Honduras #Cuba to Watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea #13L #PTC13 #TD13

📊RESOURCES as you monitor #98L

• Climate Shift Index: Ocean | www.csi.climatecentral.org/ocean

• Climate Change + Hurricanes | www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...

nfographic titled ‘Hurricanes & Climate Change.’ Three panels show: 1) Warmer oceans fuel stronger winds, 2) Sea level rise increases storm surge, and 3) Warmer air brings heavier rainfall. Source: Climate Central.

Regardless of how strong #98L becomes, flooding rain is a major concern — especially for coastal and inland Hispaniola.

Warmer oceans allow for more evaporation → warmer atmosphere holds more moisture → tropical systems can use that moisture to create heavier rainfall

Eyes are on the Caribbean this week as #98L is expected to come to life.

Stronger trade winds are keeping this system from development for now, but it shouldn't be long before lighter winds allow a closed low to form.

Let's talk about a few key climate change connections🧵

Now up to 90/90 chances as of 8 PM for #98L

Unofficial #HCCTWO
(1) #Chenge nearly a #cyclone, threatening #Madagascar
(2) #Fengshen strengthens, nearing #Vietnam
(3,4) #92A and #95S become TDs
(5) #98L threatening #Hispaniola

#wx #hurricane #cyclone #typhoon

No change with the 18z GFS. #98L is on the doorstep of Hispaniola in 3 days.

18z ICON has #98L off the coast of Haiti in 5 days.

Latest look at #98L in the Caribbean.

The models that don't are the Canadian (CMC), the German (ICON), and the European (ECMWF). If this were far away and there was more time to evaluate, I wouldn't have raised alarm so soon. But if #Melissa hits Haiti or the Dominican Republic, we're talking about Thursday! 2/2 fin #98L

Weak flow aloft + Caribbean trades = a sheared #98L. LLC now running ahead of the MLC. Shear looks to remain high until it gets further west, which may align closer to western solutions if it remains weak. Can tell water is very warm here though given convection sprouting from outflow boundaries

KEY MESSAGES
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea #Invest98L #PTC13 #TD13 #13L #Jamaica #Cuba #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #CaymanIslands #PuertoRico #PRwx #Nicaragua #Honduras #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos

Invest #98L is steadily getting better organized over the SE Caribbean today.

Fast low-level trade winds in the Caribbean "Graveyard" are the biggest impediment to development in the near-term.

Once #98L gets to ~75W where the trade winds are slower, much more rapid development is likely

🌀 Monday video discussion on Invest #98L, expected to develop into a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea this week and raise flooding risks in the region.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLgo...

Here are the 18z spaghetti models. #98L

Adverse Weather Alert Remains In Effect Until 10 PM Today One final day of isolated to scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with Invest 98L across T&T.

2:30 PM - As Invest #98L moves further west into the Caribbean Sea, trailing convergence continues to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across T&T.

ttweathercenter.com/2025/10/20/a...

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center on Invest #98L