I've estimated the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) power for each manufacturer: big trouble for Red Bull, while Ferrari can be optimistic! 👀
Mercedes: ~576 hp (best)
Teams with ≤564 hp (>2% deficit) earn one extra upgrade token per year. RBPT sits at ~565 hp: they may miss the cut!
Their average estimate is practically at the threshold: it’s 50:50 likelihood!
My findings are pretty aligned with those from Autoracer.it , which means that the estimation by both sides should be reliable and robust 😁
How I’ve computed it:
1) All 2026 Quali, Sprint & Race sessions
2) Laps with glitchy telemetry excluded
3) Straight-mode instants only: throttle >99%, no braking
4) Same drag area (CdA) assumed for all cars
5) ERS deployment profile estimated, then subtracted to isolate ICE power
Teams with ≤552 hp (>4% deficit) earn TWO extra upgrades per year. Ferrari, Audi, and Honda should all qualify!
Ferrari's gap to Mercedes (~29hp) is huge, yet their best-in-class chassis allows them to fight
Which team will have the best in-season development? 🤔
I've estimated the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) power for each manufacturer: big trouble for Red Bull, while Ferrari can be optimistic! 👀
Mercedes: ~576 hp (best)
Teams with ≤564 hp (>2% deficit) earn one extra upgrade token per year. RBPT sits at ~565 hp: they may miss the cut!
Not only were Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren fastest on track: they were quickest in the pits, too! The same applies to Cadillac... for opposite reasons
Ferrari, unmatched in Suzuka, was quickest in Australia, too
#F1
What do you mean? How would you plan to achieve that?
My solution:
For 2026:
-Limit ERS deployment from 350kW to 250kW (53%/47%→62%/38% ICE/ERS power split) 🔋
-Limit the max harvest at full throttle to -150kW (keep the 350kW harvest under braking)
For 2027:
-Increase fuel flow by 20%, reaching ~1000hp again with 66%/34% split
What's YOURS? 👀
ΔAcceleration = ΔPower / ( Mass × Speed )→ 9.2 m/s² (Confirmed by the data!)
The driver stays flat out, yet total power swings by 800 hp (1000 hp → 200 hp, or Bugatti Veyron vs Polo GTI).
And it gets worse: This #F1 data... is from HAM's best QUALIFYING lap!
At full throttle, ERS behaviour (deployment vs harvesting) dictates acceleration: the difference reaches 10 m/s², like going from constant speed to stomping the brakes of a road car!
Max deployment: +350 kW
Max harvest at full throttle: −250 kW
Difference: 600 kW (~800 hp)
Via JMP #YesJMPcan
Which car is that Matt? @thebishf1.bsky.social
Hamilton was right: he had NO POWER to defend from LEC and RUS! 🪫
LEC reached 317 km/h without slipstream or overtake mode, HAM just 307 (Lap 42)
And that's nothing: LEC reached 330 when in HAM's slipstream, but the latter didn't exceed 306 when the roles inverted! (Lap 43, and RUS overtook him)
Behind HAM, LEC gained 0.391s on the main straight. Behind LEC, HAM LOST 0.250s (while RUS gained 0.529s)
So:
-For some reason (bug?) HAM didn't have the ERS power needed to defend ❌
-RUS could overtake HAM more easily than LEC did... even though he was 0.144s further behind on the straight! 🚀
Hamilton was right: he had NO POWER to defend from LEC and RUS! 🪫
LEC reached 317 km/h without slipstream or overtake mode, HAM just 307 (Lap 42)
And that's nothing: LEC reached 330 when in HAM's slipstream, but the latter didn't exceed 306 when the roles inverted! (Lap 43, and RUS overtook him)
BEST QUALI LAP - 2026 vs 2025
Great job to Audi (Sauber) and Mercedes, losing 'just' 1.4s despite the regulation change
Ferrari and McL lost ~0.6s to them, but still less than most of the teams
RBR lost ~3s (and Williams 3.3s)
Aston? Almost 5s!
Two-doors Rolls have my respect
Clipping was so absurdly high during and after the 130R corner because the low-drag mode was not allowed during and after that corner
Before the corner: ERS deployment + low drag mode During and after: ERS harvesting + high drag mode
This wasn't the case in Australia or China
Clipping was so absurdly high during and after the 130R corner because the low-drag mode was not allowed during and after that corner
Before the corner: ERS deployment + low drag mode During and after: ERS harvesting + high drag mode
This wasn't the case in Australia or China
Mercedes-powered 🟪Alpine was fastest overall: 333 km/h top speed, like RBs, but better minimum speed
-Best top speeds: RBPT PU (strong deployment)
-Best minimum speeds: Mercedes and Audi PU (strong ICE)
🔋🪫Clipping Analysis (130R)
🟥Ferrari had the WORST top speed: just 320km/h. Ferrari-powered teams were slowest on average (worse than Aston-Honda even!)
🟩Honda had a massive 60km/h clipping: just 267 km/h while still full-throttle! (worst ICE?⛽️)
Via JMP #YesJMPcan #adv
I agree 100% with you Keith
They should really limit the ERS power for this year, and work towards increasing the fuel flow for the next
Pace per team:
1)Merc/ANT (M)
2)Ferrari/LEC (M) +0.662s/lap
3)McL/PIA (M) +1.144
4)Alpine/GAS (H) +1.301
5)Haas/OCO (M) +1.410
6)RBR/VER (H) +1.493
7)Audi/HUL (H) +1.550
8)RBs/LAW (M) +2.050
9)Williams/ALB (M) +2.468
10)Cadillac/BOT (M) +3.205
FP2 LONG RUNS 📊
🟢Mercedes is looking untouchable: quick and consistent
🔴LEC was next best, yet over 0.6s/lap slower!
🟠PIA set the quickest lap, but long run didn't impress
🟣Alpine and⚪️Haas are looking good again!
🔵VER again nowhere. HAD was as quick as him once slow laps are removed!
#F1
Very PU-demanding track, like Australia: Mercedes' ICE power advantage will matter more than in China
Crucial indicator of each team's performance for the rest of the season... or at least before the technical directives and big updates
📸 Pirelli, Gabor Weber
🗒️ KEY SUZUKA NOTES
🔥Extreme cornering speeds and tyre stress:
-Ferrari's superior chassis/aero will help in quali, BUT...
-...High wear will hurt them in the race
-Crucial to ace per-corner ERS deployment/harvest to save energy (and tyres)... meaning that quali won't be flat out as usual :(
#F1
In reality, 211.4 km/h would only let you drive upside down very briefly: at that speed, downforce=weight →No normal force and traction! Drag would slow the car down → downforce drops → you fall! 💥
In order not to fall, you’d need enough downforce to produce a rear longitudinal force overcoming drag
Do you often drive #F1 cars upside down in tunnels? If so, bad news: in 2026, you’ll need +11.7 km/h for the car’s downforce (upforce?) to match its weight! 💡
2026 cars are 20kg lighter (-2.5%) than 2025s, but have ~13% less downforce. Speed needed to equate its weight: from 199.7 to 211.4 km/h
This means that McL has the shortest ratio, and Audi by far the longest: the former could increase PU efficiency and thus power on slower tracks (closer-spaced gears→can operate around max-efficiency point), the latter on fast ones
It's confirmed now: NO F1 team changed the length of the 8th gear from testing to racing! (I explain how I computed that in this video!)
Watch the video for my deep explanation! 👉 youtu.be/UVI-lp73cuY?...
Via JMP #YesJMPcan