In Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, Chris Taylor won by 20 points, the largest margin for a liberal candidate over the past two decades.
She was helped by Democratic enthusiasm but also lower turnout among Republicans, as suggested by lower turnout vs. 2023-25.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606147
DDHQ's weekly newsletter looks at why a woman could win the 2028 presidential election.
Yes, women lost in 2016 and 2024, but that's a sample size of 2. There's more to consider, including candidate qualities and fundamentals like economic conditions + presidential approval.
On this week's DDHQ Podcast, @erincovey.bsky.social from
@cookpolitical.com joined to talk about 2026's under-the-radar House races.
Cook recently rated #TX23 as somewhat competitive, so we talked about how the race between guninfluencer Brandon Herrera (R) & Katy Padilla Stout (D) gets close.
Some lunchtime reading! This week's DDHQ newsletter looked at:
-Democratic-held seats the GOP can target in its effort to keep the House
-Republican-held seats Dems hope to flip if 2026 turns into a blue wave year
Read the newsletter here:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
This week's DDHQ newsletter:
-Which blue seats could the GOP flip to keep the House? Best targets are in red states that redistricted.
-Which red seats could Democrats flip to make a blue wave happen? Some Trump-won, medium-red seats could be in play in 2026.
And here's some AI slop from "Affordable Chicago Now" and "Chicago Progressive Partnership."
I wrote about the role of AIPAC in these 4 Democratic primaries for Chicagoland U.S. House seats. I also dug into the #ILSen primary!
Check it out:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-illin...
Some of the AIPAC-connected groups spending in #IL02, #IL07, #IL08 & #IL09 have the junkiest websites and logos.
Elect Chicago Women is especially funny. Its homepage looks like this. Yeah, there's a logo there, but we have to zoom in to see it.
"My passion is graphic design."
DDHQ dug into 5 major primaries happening in Illinois on Tuesday.
Gov. JB Pritzker is set to win reelection, so he's been putting a lot of energy — and money — into supporting Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in the #ILSen Democratic primary.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-illin...
In this week's DDHQ newsletter: The 26 Republican-held seats that will be key to the 2026 House majority.
We're still ~8 months out from the election, but these seats are already clearly the Democrats' best targets if they want to win back the House.
Decision Desk HQ is excited to announce the release of Votes, our new election data portal!
Easily access up-to-date polling, historical results, and prediction market data.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com
ICYMI Our Monday newsletter took a look at the 2026 House playing field. About 45 districts seem most likely to decide a majority in November — 25 held by Republicans, 20 held by Democrats.
Read more here:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
This week's DDHQ newsletter looks at the House playing field and identifies 45 districts that are likely to determine the House majority in 2026.
Read here:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
This week's DDHQ Podcast is a Redistricting Refresher with @geoffreyskelley.com & @baseballot.bsky.social. What map changes are happening? What could the Dem/GOP gains be?
One wrinkle is that parties aren't always respecting the reality that the other side will eventually have a good year!
DDHQ's newsletter on Presidents' Day looked at Gallup's less-than-timely decision to cease measuring presidential approval.
The absence of Gallup could very subtly boost Trump's approval average; Gallup was consistently on his low end.
Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/end-of-gal...
Sen. Susan Collins (R) formally announced that she's running for reelection in #MESen.
She is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in '24.
Collins easily gives the GOP its best chance of holding onto what is a must-win seat for Democrats in 2026.
Winner of #TX18 runoff tomorrow will further narrow GOP's House majority. After the winner (a Dem) is sworn in, GOP will have 218-214 edge (w/ 3 vacancies).
Granted, another gov shutdown could make it easier for Mike Johnson to delay swearing in the winner, as happened with Adelita Grijalva.
DDHQ Podcast welcomed @gracepanetta.bsky.social to chat about 2026 Senate races with high-profile women candidates.
One is #TXSen, where Dems are split on Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has given fuel to her "electability" detractors.
Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-wom...
I think that's a tad harsh about prediction markets, but I agree that I def trust polls more than prediction markets — at least if the race is reasonable well-polled.
Also, I just realized my comment about Kalshi %s was on The Downballot's podcast, not mine. Similar topics, thus the confusion.
@geoffreyskelley.com joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to tell us all about his work as the new chief election analyst at @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social! We nerd out about top Senate primaries and the surprising reasons House retirements have spiked. Listen here!
Kalshi probabilities are a back-of-the-envelope read of the conventional wisdom. As I mention in the episode, it has been telling to see Dem odds tick up in the Senate based on those probabilities.
In this week's DDHQ Polling Memo:
-Trump's approval continues to hover in one of its worst spots in his 2nd term
-Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 36%-16% in the Illinois Dem primary for Senate
Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/illinois-d...
Baby, it's cold outside, but things are heating up ♨️ in Louisiana for Bill Cassidy. Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow over Cassidy in the #LASen GOP primary & now the incumbent might be boiled shrimp 🦐 in 2026.
DDHQ's newsletter breaks things down:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-letl...
DDHQ has a new polling average for South Carolina's GOP primary for governor. The 4 main contenders are all between 10-20%, with Rep. Nancy Mace & state AG Alan Wilson both around 19%.
The race may well depend on Trump's endorsement (if he does).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/no-clear-f...
ICYMI yesterday, this week's DDHQ newsletter covered 10 big elections to watch in the first three months of 2026. One of them is the #GA14 special on March 10 to fill the seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
In this week's DDHQ newsletter, @geoffreyskelley.com runs through 10 key elections to watch in the first 3 months of 2026. On the list is the March 10 special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat, Georgia's 14th District. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
If Klobuchar runs for #MNGov, she'll be the 4th sitting senator to run for governor in 2026 — most in any election from 1914-now.
@geoffreyvs will have more in tomorrow morning's DDHQ newsletter. You can get it in your inbox by signing up for FREE here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the candidate filing deadline! @geoffreyskelley.com discussed the ins and outs of Texas's big races with @gbirenbaum.bsky.social from @texastribune.org, including what Jasmine Crockett's candidacy means for #TXSen. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-9-...
In this week's newsletter, a look at candidates who might get accused of "carpetbagging" by running in states or districts that are mostly or totally new to them. This includes at least 4 former or current House members running in 2026, such as Madison Cawthorn & Chris Collins. zurl.co/J8573
In this week's DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyskelley.com talked Tennessee with @rubashkin.bsky.social from Inside Elections! They dug into the #TN07 special election result — especially the contest's high turnout — and what it may say about next year's midterms. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/tennessee-...
DDHQ has a big preview of today's #TN07 special election. The GOP favored to win the Trump +22 district, but limited polling says it's close & both parties' super PACs have spent $$$. A Dem upset would rank among biggest recent special election flips. zurl.co/9KZWR
