If the deal for Iran to collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz is interpreted literally, the US would pay $14-$20 million to Iran to move a carrier strike group—US 5th Fleet based in Bahrain—in & out of the Persian Gulf & to open water—each way, each time. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies
The global economic expansion is set to continue, but the range of possible outcomes has widened. Underlying forces—especially the AI-driven investment cycle—continue to support growth, but the Iran war has introduced new risks. #PIIECharts
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard discusses this & more at our April 15 event on the realities of economic security: www.piie.com/events/2026/...
NOW: Tianlei Huang discusses China’s housing slump:
💡Fiscal fallout
💡Financial risks
💡Global spillovers
Watch live:
NOW: US labor market indicators point all over.
➡️Unemployment low; prime-age employment-population ratio very high
BUT
➡️Payroll growth now near 0
💡Mostly due to low immigration
➡️Hiring rate historically low
💡AI or something else?
@jedkolko.bsky.social discusses:
NOW: Our Spring 2026 Global Economic Prospects—Advanced economies will see weaker growth this year & next than they saw in 2025. Underlying growth varies across emerging market economies, but most are slowing.
Watch live:
The US pharmaceutical market is really two separate markets, with two BIG (but very different) problems. Why Trump's new tariffs and pricing deals may not fix either one.
tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/209-...
Is the outcome of the ceasefire better than the world that existed on February 27, before the US & Israel launched their offensive against Iran?
On that measure, the case for US strategic success is difficult to make. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
The US-Iran ceasefire is a relief, but let’s not mistake "avoiding catastrophe" for "strategic victory." From effectively ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to depleting US missile stockpiles, the costs of this conflict are staggering. My latest for @piie.com.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The US pharmaceutical market is really two separate markets, with two very different problems. Why Trump's new tariffs and pricing deal with the UK may not fix either one.
The EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement would create the first binding framework aimed at reducing China’s chokehold on critical mineral processing, shifting some to South America. If South America can get investment for processing minerals for Europe, they can take advantage of newly opened markets.
🚨NEW @trade--talks.bsky.social episode!!
@tombollyky.bsky.social joined @chadpbown.com to explain the problems facing the US pharma market, Trump's new 100% tariffs & pricing deal with the UK, & impact on American drug prices & supply chain security.
Here or wherever you get podcasts:
NEW EPISODE: @tombollyky.bsky.social joins to explain the problems facing the US pharmaceutical market, Trump's new 100% tariffs and pricing deal with the United Kingdom, and the impact on American drug prices as well as supply chain security.
Statistical association is not the same as policy causation.
The failure of US policy was not the creation of NAFTA. The failure was, & remains, the absence of a meaningful safety net for displaced workers.
Without a compelling path away from reliance on the US—the kind Europe has already taken to mitigate military dependence—the continent will have little choice but to accept the transatlantic economic relationship largely as it is for the foreseeable future.
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PIIE spring meetings Coming up in April 2026 | Watch at piie.com/events - Thursday, April 9 | 1PM Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2026 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Jed Kolko (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) - Tuesday, April 14 | 11AM PIIE Insider LIVE: Olivier Blanchard on Eurobonds and optimism for Europe’s future Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE) - Wednesday, April 15 | 9AM Trade 360 degrees: Trade Winds LIVE from DC! Chad P. Bown (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (Special Advisor, Indonesia), Adam S. Posen (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Cecilia Malmström (PIIE) 1PM Central banking for open economies in a changed world Anna Breman (Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand), José Luis Escrivá (Governor, Bank of Spain), Chang Yong Rhee (Governor, Bank of Korea), Martin Schlegel (Chairman of the Government Board, Swiss National Bank), Patrick Honohan (PIIE) 3PM The realities of economic security Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE), Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE) Thursday, April 16 | 9AM The future economic architecture of the eurozone Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Carlos Cuerpo (First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Trade and Business, Spain), Isbel Schnabel (Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank), Ángel Ubide (Citadel), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1PM AI and the imminent transformation of work: New dimensions and analyses Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Jed Kolko (PIIE), Anton Korinek (PIIE), Fabien Curto Millet (Google), Caroline Atkinson (RockCreek) 3PM International imbalances again? Still? Forever? Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Hélène Rey (London Business School), Alan Taylor (Bank of England), Isabel Vansteenkist (European Central Bank), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) Friday, April 17 | 9AM Decentering the dollar: A conversation Klass Knot (PIIE, Former Governor, De Nederlandsche Bank; Former Chair, Financial Stability Board), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
🌸IT'S SPRING MEETINGS TIME!🌸
We kick things off with our semiannual Global Economic Prospects event on April 9, then join us April 14-17 for high-level panels & discussions on the euro, AI, trade, & more.
Find all event info & register to watch here: www.piie.com/events/sprin...
To my amazement, when I scrutinized that study, written in the White House last fall to justify the H-1B tax, I realized it was full of mistakes so large that they undermine the basis for the tax.
I summarize in this post at @piie.com —> www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
And I'll explain a bit below.
2025 was *a year*
Our 2025 Annual Report is now live! Check out highlights from one of our busiest years ever:
For the foreseeable future, the WTO will mainly be a forum for groups of members to reach commercial agreements among themselves. This has great value to small countries without economic heft nor diplomatic resources to negotiate multiple bilateral agreements.
Peterson Institute @PIIE at 10:25 AM on April 2, 2026 tbt quote tweeting @PIIE on April 2, 2025 reminder that the experts learned about the new tariff rates the same time you did. pls be nice to us, we are analyzing as fast as we can
having a nice trip down memory lane
The very awesome @aimewilliams.bsky.social joins the podcast this week to explain what has happened since Trump’s sweeping April 2, 2025 TARIFF announcement, including SURPRISES buried in the weeds of US import and export data, as well what comes next after that momentous SUPREME COURT decision.
@trade--talks.bsky.social is back, just in time for an episode examining the whole year it's been since "Liberation Day."
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts:
hey
@chadpbown.com pls confirm
haha april fools
correlation equals causation
