War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies
The global economic expansion is set to continue, but the range of possible outcomes has widened. Underlying forces—especially the AI-driven investment cycle—continue to support growth, but the Iran war has introduced new risks. #PIIECharts
The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted
The Trump administration's "America First" investment agreements with trading partners are effectively an industrial policy that is ironically aligned with Biden-era initiatives such as the CHIPS & Science Act. #PIIECharts
Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted
The Trump administration's "America First" investment agreements with trading partners are effectively an industrial policy that is ironically aligned with Biden-era initiatives such as the CHIPS & Science Act. #PIIECharts
More: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump
Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts
China’s private-sector rebound continued in 2025, fueled by “new economy”
The private sector's share of the top 100 listed Chinese companies by market value grew to 40% in the second half of 2025, driven by high-profile technology firms amid China's artificial intelligence boom. #PIIECharts
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
Average US tariffs on China: 47.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
The US imported a larger amount of goods in the first half of 2025, but less from China and more from the EU and Mexico
Total real US goods imports from the world sharply increased in early 2025, likely due largely to importers frontloading goods before tariffs took effect. By July 2025, as tariffs were enforced, cumulative US real goods imports were ~10% above January-July 2024 level. #PIIECharts
The US imported a larger amount of goods in the first half of 2025, but less from China and more from the EU and Mexico
As Trump kicked off his trade war this year, some economists predicted a drop in US goods imports. The US did import less from some, notably China, but imported more from others, such as the EU & Mexico, in January-July 2025, compared with the same period last year. #PIIECharts
Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag
Our Fall 2025 Global Economic Prospects shows that real global GDP is projected to rise 3.1% in 2025 & 2.9% in 2026. #PIIECharts
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
Trump succeeding in pressing the Fed to lower rates further than it would otherwise would slow US growth through most of the 2030s, & boost inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts
More: www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/202...
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
If Trump succeeds in pressing the Fed to cut rates more than it would otherwise, the US would see slower growth through most of the 2030s & higher inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts
Read: www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/202...
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
If Trump succeeds in pressing the Fed to cut rates more than it would otherwise, the US would see slower growth through most of the 2030s & higher inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts
Read: www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/202...
Slowing immigration has halted job growth in some industries
Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & several other industries in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts
Slowing immigration has halted job growth in some industries
Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & several other industries in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts
Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs heavily penalize countries that use more imported inputs
The "reciprocal tariff" calculation ignores how global value chains work, penalizing countries that use more intermediate inputs from other countries in their exported products. #PIIECharts
Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Slowing immigration has halted job growth in some industries
NEW: Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & several other industries in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts
Can Trump's tariff revenues help pay for the federal budget deficit? Cumulative tariff revenue, Jan–Jul 2025: $122,011,297,817 Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025: $1,865,000,000,000 #PIIECharts Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts Notes: Cumulative tariff revenue is the total of monthly calculated duties estimated by USITC since January 2025. Source: Congressional Budget Office.
UPDATED: As of July 2025, tariff revenues since January 2025 totaled $122 billion, contributing just 6.5% of the projected deficit. #PIIECharts
Can Trump's tariff revenues help pay for the federal budget deficit?
Cumulative tariff revenue, Jan–Jun 2025
$93,926,257,484
Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025
$1,865,000,000,000
#PIIECharts
5%
China's private sector gained ground again among country's top corporations in first half of 2025
The private sector’s share of the top 100 listed Chinese companies by market value continued to rise in the first half of 2025, reaching 37.2% by end of June, up from 33.1% a year ago. #PIIECharts
Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Fed projected to turn profitable again after three years of losses
After 3 years of losses, the Fed projects that it will return to profitability in 2026. The rebound reflects the slow runoff of low-yielding assets & the expected stabilization of short-term interest rates after the rapid increases of 2022–23. #PIIECharts
Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
US-China trade war tariffs: an up-to-date chart Last updated May 14, 2025
On average, US tariffs on China are now 51.1%. Average Chinese tariffs on the US are now 32.6%. #PIIECharts
Trump's tariffs could bring new revenue but would also reduce other tax revenue
Net revenue gains from tariffs aren't import value multiplied by tariff rate. Tariffs change consumer & company behavior, resulting in less income & corporate tax revenue.
Over 10 years, net revenue from a 10% baseline tariff, + retaliation, would be ~$1.6 trillion. #PIIECharts
Trump's tariffs could bring new revenue but would also reduce other tax revenue
NEW: Higher tariff rates generally produce more tariff revenue. But they also reduce other tax revenue from companies & households by hurting economic growth.
With retaliation, a 20 percentage point tariff rate increase yields a smaller gain than a 15pp increase. #PIIECharts
US economy expected to stall as policy changes weigh on growth
The US economy will slow sharply in 2025; tariffs & other US policy shifts dampen activity & fuel global uncertainty. Tariffs are raising prices, disrupting supply chains, eroding real incomes, & making it harder for businesses to plan. #PIIECharts
Rising inflation expectations could discourage Fed rate cuts this year Chart showing the median expectation of inflation over the coming 12 months jumped from 5.0 percent in March to 6.7 percent in April, according to the University of Michigan
Americans’ short-term inflation expectations have risen sharply thus far this year, a trend that if continued could make Federal Reserve officials more cautious about cutting interest rates this year. #PIIECharts
Read more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
US economy expected to stall as policy changes weigh on growth
The US economy will slow sharply this year; tariffs & other US policy shifts dampen activity & fuel global uncertainty. Tariffs are raising prices, disrupting supply chains, & eroding real incomes. Frequent tariff changes make it hard for businesses to plan & invest. #PIIECharts
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
US tariffs on exports from China are around 42%.
US tariffs on exports from the rest of the world are almost 4%.
Check out our US-China Trade War #PIIECharts on where tariffs are right now that will be up-to-date for the next *checks notes* few hours: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Mais s'il passe à l'acte, le PIB serait plus faible et l'inflation plus élevée qu'aux États-Unis et dans la plupart des pays ciblés. #PIIECharts
A US-imposed 100 percent tariff on BRICS countries would cause lower GDP, higher inflation than otherwise for all Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts
President Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on countries that seek to reduce the US dollar’s dominant role in global finance, like the BRICS. But if he does, GDP would be lower & inflation higher than otherwise in the US & most of the targeted countries. #PIIECharts
President Trump's promises the "largest deportation program in American history," a step targeting unauthorized immigrants. But mass deportations would result in lower US GDP & employment than otherwise through 2040. #PIIECharts
