The Friday column: Here we go again Previous proposals to subsidize Cook Inlet gas created cross-subsidies, benefiting Cook Inlet consumers at the expense of others in the state. Some of the current #AKLNG proposals would do the same.

This Week's Column| Previous proposals to subsidize Cook Inlet gas created cross-subsidies, benefiting Cook Inlet consumers at the expense of others in the state. Some of the current #AKLNG proposals would do the same. #akleg buff.ly/23COfeM

Trump invokes emergency powers to bolster U.S. natural gas, LNG capacity A White House memorandum says more gas and LNG infrastructure is needed for national defense.

🤔 Not to jump too far ahead, but given the Act's broad authority, the Trump Administration could likely condition any financial support under the DPA on Alaska adopting certain tax changes. #akleg buff.ly/pRrV5xo

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 11.10% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.56% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 36.95% v PFC 13.14%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $12 (+$546mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $6 (avg annual +$215mil)
#akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (4.20.2026) The size of the role played by PFD cuts in funding the FY26 & FY27 budgets, what's driving the Senate's review of #AKLNG & what does the defeat of the Anchorage K-12 bonds mean for state K-12 funding

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The size of the role played by PFD cuts in funding the FY26 & FY27 budgets, what's driving the Senate's review of #AKLNG & what does the defeat of the Anchorage K-12 bonds mean for state K-12 funding. #akleg

The Friday column: Here we go again Previous proposals to subsidize Cook Inlet gas created cross-subsidies, benefiting Cook Inlet consumers at the expense of others in the state. Some of the current #AKLNG proposals would do the same.

This Week's Column| Previous proposals to subsidize Cook Inlet gas created cross-subsidies, benefiting Cook Inlet consumers at the expense of others in the state. Some of the current #AKLNG proposals would do the same. #akleg buff.ly/23COfeM

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 11.45% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.85% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 34.57% v PFC 13.14%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $10 (+$439mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $6 (avg annual +$215mil)
#akleg

This Wk's Top 3| Our look at where things stand on the budget, some numbers on #AKLNG & will the ANC vote be seen as a wake-up call for K-12 or just an excuse to push the state more. #akleg T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at www.facebook.com/share/1CqHHq...

Where things stand on the budgets. In both years, personal taxes (PFD cuts) are the single largest source of revenue, exceeding oil royalties, taxes, and even the portion of the POMV draw statutorily designated for the government. #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 11.23% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.73% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 34.89% v PFC 13.14%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $11 (+$492mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $7 (avg annual +$259mil)
#akleg

Even though it's not projected to be available until 2031, we have also started including Wood Mackenzie's recent projection of the delivered cost of #AKLNG Phase I. At 2031 start-up date, projected AKLNG Phase I price is 58% ⬆️ Asia.

The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2026-27 Enstar price is 35% ⬇️ Asia, 193% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 20% ⬆️ Asia, 197% ⬆️ L48. #akleg

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The Friday column: Here we go again Previous proposals to subsidize Cook Inlet gas created cross-subsidies, benefiting Cook Inlet consumers at the expense of others in the state. Some of the current #AKLNG proposals would do the same.

This Week's Column| Previous proposals to subsidize Cook Inlet gas created cross-subsidies, benefiting Cook Inlet consumers at the expense of others in the state. Some of the current #AKLNG proposals would do the same. #akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (4.13.2026) The way #akleg R's handle the PFD debate is a certain loser, why SJR 29 would create a giant sucking sound within the Alaska budget & who is it exactly legislators are trying to protect from taxes

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The way #akleg R's handle the PFD debate is a certain loser, why SJR 29 would create a giant sucking sound within the Alaska budget & who is it exactly legislators are trying to protect from taxes.

Monthly, we take a deeper look at Alaska's economy. This month: while some use state GDP to gauge the health of Alaska's economy, median household income tells a different story. These are the "real" (ex-inflation) changes in each over the last 20 years. #akleg

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: They don’t really object to “free money;” they just want more of it to flow to their pockets instead Some recent comments reminded us that it's been a while since we wrote about the Tax Avoidance...… Read More

MOST intellectually dishonest argument to rationalize PFD cuts? "It's just less free money."

The "free money" doesn't disappear. Cutting the PFD just shifts its benefit to the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos. They get MORE of it.

𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨: We track the current Fed funds rate + 10-, 20- & 30-year US Treas Bond yields. buff.ly/2Bdh8Aq
Effective Fed funds rate: 3.64%
US Treas Bond yields --
**10-Yr: 4.32%**
20-Yr: 4.90%
30-Yr: 4.93%

4/end

> Second, the current rate + forward expectations as measured in the Treas market. buff.ly/uwKAC5j
Current: 3.286% (Mat)
10yr Avg: 2.36%
Next 5yrs: 2.56%
5 yrs Beyond That: 2.16%

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𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation:

> First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. buff.ly/ugqEpMH
PCE: up 50.0% (5.0%/yr)
CPI: up 26.2% (2.6%/yr)

2/4

The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg

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The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: Foreign-flagged headed for Valdez. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 10
* Not in ANS service: 0
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 11 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM, 1 MPC) in runs

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: They don’t really object to “free money;” they just want more of it to flow to their pockets instead Some recent comments reminded us that it's been a while since we wrote about the Tax Avoidance...… Read More

Basically, analyzing Alaska fiscal policy is the study of who subsidizes whom. The biggest subsidy? PFD cuts, which are used to shield the Top20% & #NonRez from bearing their share of govt costs. #akleg
alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...

PFD Estimates| Monthly, as information becomes available, we post the most recent projections of gross PFD levels over the current forecast period under 5 alternatives: statutory, POMV 50/50, POMV 33/67, POMV 25/75, and "Leftover." #akleg

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $109, ahead of both Brent (+$5.51) and Brent/WTI avg ($8.05). #akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (4.13.2026) The way #akleg R's handle the PFD debate is a certain loser, why SJR 29 would create a giant sucking sound within the Alaska budget & who is it exactly legislators are trying to protect from taxes

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The way #akleg R's handle the PFD debate is a certain loser, why SJR 29 would create a giant sucking sound within the Alaska budget & who is it exactly legislators are trying to protect from taxes. buff.ly/MZ6i13r

The Friday column: Here we go again Previous proposals to subsidize Cook Inlet gas created cross-subsidies, benefiting Cook Inlet consumers at the expense of others in the state. Some of the current #AKLNG proposals would do the same.

This Week's Column| Previous proposals to subsidize Cook Inlet gas created cross-subsidies, benefiting Cook Inlet consumers at the expense of others in the state. Some of the current #AKLNG proposals would do the same. #akleg buff.ly/23COfeM

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 11.23% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.73% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 34.89% v PFC 13.14%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $8 (+$351mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $6 (avg annual +$251mil)
#akleg