#AkLeg #AlaskaSky #Fairbanks #FairbanksAlaska #PoliceReform #PoliceAccountability #AbolishThePolice #ACAB
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My understanding of this is there is no legal justification for handing over Alaskas voter lists or signing the MOU. Acting AG Cox is “advising” the Alaska Division of Elections to appease the DOJ instead of following State and Federal law. Cox should not be confirmed. #akleg
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In seeking to rationalize PFD cuts, some intentionally conflate state and federal programs, suggesting that the PFD cuts are an appropriate offset to federal benefits. Wrong. State and federal programs exist and are paid for at separate levels. #akleg
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This Week's Column| We wade into the PFD debate that took place this week in House Finance by calculating the impact on middle-, lower-, AND upper-income families of using PFD cuts to close the state’s budget gap. #akleg
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The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
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The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: No MPC in ANS service. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 3.2
* Not in ANS service: 1
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 10 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM) in runs
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Podcast - Andrew Halcro "With All Due Respect?"
"Glenfarne's Seinfeld Moment: There is no gas pipeline."
www.buzzsprout.com/1773395/epis...
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This Week's Column| We wade into the PFD debate that took place this week in House Finance by calculating the impact on middle-, lower-, AND upper-income families of using PFD cuts to close the state’s budget gap. #akleg
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The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $105, ahead of both Brent (+$.84) and Brent/WTI avg ($5.16). #akleg
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This should be a huge red flag warning for Alaska ‼️ #akleg
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this is such an inflammatory bill and shit response.
I haven't really said much on this lately, but a big reason I'm processing every meeting is because #akleg sucks and oversight about as much as SOA does at providing consistent facts and figures.
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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 10.37% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 17.01% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.08% v PFC 13.14%
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The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $7 (+$307mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$69mil)
#akleg
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The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 76% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running 8% ⬆️ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $81. #akleg
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HB101 is a bill that passed #akleg House unanimously & now is stuck in Sen Judiciary. It would criminalize older adults having sex w/ 16 & 17-year-olds & would make it easier for victims this age to get safety & justice. Keeley makes a cogent argument for it in her article & ours will be out soon.
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Wow this is sad. The only way we can see systemic change in Alaska is to elect a better government. We need to get rid of people like Dunleavy. Obviously MAGA politicians aren’t going to help. We need a veto proof majority of sane people in the #akleg too.
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The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg
1/6
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Rolling Avg Prices & Differentials | To track relationships monthly, we look at the average prices for and the differentials between ANS, Brent & WTI on a rolling 12-, 6-, 3-, 1-month, and FYTD basis. We then incorporate those into our daily pricing outlooks. #akleg #akoil
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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 10.37% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 17.01% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.08% v PFC 13.14%
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The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $7 (+$307mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$69mil)
#akleg
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The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg
First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $5), mid (⬆️ $1) & long-term (⬇️ $2) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).
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#AlaskaSky
#AkLeg
#Hegsrapist
And soldiers in Alaska, especially Fairbanks, have an even harder time acclimating to the long dark winters, THIS IS NOT GOOD.
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PFD posturers, with an eye on election, propose giant deficit
"It is dishonest for this group to fail to mention the consequences of big dividends ... is based on something other than a compulsion to tell people what they might want to hear."
www.dermotcole.com/reportingfro...
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A $3,800 PFD is INSANE. They’re drunk on war revenue. The reason the State of Alaska is broke with crumbling infrastructure unable to pay out large PFD’s responsibly is because Republicans refuse to tax oil, gas, and mining in accordance with their constitutional obligations. #akleg
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Big shoutout to my intern, Karley Thrun. (the one in red!) She's a freshman at UAF studying political science, and it's been a pleasure having her on the team. The future is bright for you, Karley. Keep up the great work! #akleg
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🧵 The House Finance Committee is back with the rest of the amendments on House Bill 91, the marijuana tax bill.
As a recap, the bill would cut the tax to a flat $12.50 per ounce, then transition to a sales tax in 2028.
📺: www.ktoo.org/video/gavel/...
#akleg
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This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg
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Call to demand Anchorage USCIS stop targeting children (in this case, the overseas-born minor child of a U.S. veteran), and that’s Alaska Department of Corrections stops coordinating with ICE! #AkLeg #Alaska #AlaskaSky #FuckICE
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