This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What the NPRA sale means for Alaska, the source and extent of the problems #AKLNG is facing in the #AKLEG & the upcoming challenges the #AKLEG faces in finalizing the FY27 budget.
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As we have explained, we do need to reform oil taxes. But total deficits are about $1.5 bn, and reforming oil taxes would raise only about a third. Alaskans have to pay for some of their own govt. The question is: what is the lowest-impact approach? #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday...
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This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday...
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In-state demand is ~5-10% of total #AKLNG volumes. While lowering property taxes would reduce in-state costs, it would also MATERIALLY lower the state's take on the remaining 90-95% of vols. NO analysis of why THIS LEVEL of tax reduction is NECESSARY to attract capital. #akleg
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I’m excited to join six other candidates tomorrow at the Governor Candidate Fireside Forum at the Glenn Massay Theater. Looking forward to sharing my vision and hearing from you.
Reserve your seat at the link in bio.
#aksky #alaskasky #akleg #akgov #tombegich
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The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation:
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The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 XOM at anchor in PWS. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 16.2
* Not in ANS service: 1
* Asia: 1
* USWC: 11 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM, 1 MPC) in runs
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Why the Iran War May Force Countries to Rely Less on Natural Gas www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/b... #alaskalng #akleg
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This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What the NPRA sale means for Alaska, the source and extent of the problems #AKLNG is facing in the #AKLEG & the upcoming challenges the #AKLEG faces in finalizing the FY27 budget. buff.ly/A6xwJ7l
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Middle & lower-income Alaskans are told that cuts to their PFDs are being used to pay for govt. What they are really being used for is to shield upper-income Alaskans, #OilCos & #NonRez from paying their share of the costs of govt thru taxes. #akleg buff.ly/3x7ksom
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The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $98, ahead of both Brent (+$.42) and Brent/WTI avg ($4.41). #akleg
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This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg buff.ly/YwhnDDi
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Work boots and suit
I'm begging our Interior delegation to pull Rep Stapp aside and teach him how to dress like an adult man.
#akleg
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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 9.89% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 16.99% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 11.87% v PFC 12.43%
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The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $11 (+$492mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $5 (avg annual +$172mil)
#akleg
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The @nytimes looks at Alaska, focusing on the state's fiscal situation. The interesting thing? While it notes that 17 people are running for #AKgov, it can't find one who is actually offering a comprehensive plan to deal with it. #akleg buff.ly/urvqAvA
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The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 74% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running 3% ⬆️ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $78. #akleg
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Fairbanks Republicans are tired of losing local elections. Instead of running better candidates, they are trying to change the election date to make elections more partisan.
#akleg
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#akleg I see Sen. Claman has released the first plank of his platform.
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In this #HelloAlaska, we talk about the civics bill (SB23) and Matt wins at trivia.
w/ @matt.akmemo.com #akleg
helloalaska.pizza/podcast/098-...
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Happening now: borough mayors from around the state are offering their take on SB 280, the governor's proposal to cut taxes for the AKLNG pipeline project. Watch live on KTOO 360TV or here: www.ktoo.org/gavel/video/... #akleg
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This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg buff.ly/YwhnDDi
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The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg
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Alaska is a failed state. But you know who isn’t failing are the oil, gas, and mining corporations laughing their way to the bank.
Jokes on you Alaskans. #akleg
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This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What the NPRA sale means for Alaska, the source and extent of the problems #AKLNG is facing in the #AKLEG & the upcoming challenges the #AKLEG faces in finalizing the FY27 budget.
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HB 308 lowers the legal limit for driving under the influence (DUI) from 0.08 BAC to 0.04 BAC. 0.04 BAC is the current federal limit for commercial drivers. Utah lowered their limit in 2018 to 0.05 BAC & saw a reduction in traffic fatalities in 2019. AK should do this. #akleg
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The House has two bills in second reading on the calendar on this final Friday of March. The Senate is holding a technical session with no business taking place. #akleg
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🤷 Our sense, after Wednesday's #akleg hearing, of how the Administration landed on a delayed 6-cent volumetric property tax rate for the #AKLNG project v. the Constitution's "maximum benefit" standard.
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