It could be a grand end to April and start of May for the UK should 06z GFS verify.
There are still a fair few ensembles that collapse the high or retrogress it to turn it cooler and more unsettled. This is occurring in the guidance around the 26th-28th.
Information about named storms is available too. I'm working on adding all the data about them quite slowly, as developing the model is a priority for me.
One key aspect of the site is to host live lightning data, with easy to access archive data. You can generate your own maps and publish them, with your preferred map style.
As well as that, you can obtain local statistics!
The PNG outlooks that get posted here will also be posted on the site, with less text on posts to encourage users to go to the site.
Additionally, I am working on verification of forecasts to be automatically created on the site. Fingers crossed it works!
Archive is viewable too.
Some new things!
My site is live and accessible: ukwx.github.io
I have also developed a LAI.v1 (Lightning Activity Index) model, which in its initial stage appeared to overdo risks, but LAI.v2 is in the works and should have significant upgrades as well as extra features.
High pressure is on the way!
Positioning of the high will be crucial on our weather. Risk of some overnight frosts.
Let's just hope the 00z ECMWF is wrong in bringing a northerly in the last 6 days of April. 😅
Think I'll become more active on here in due course. Just going to freshen things up and post a few things!
Some very stormy charts continue to be shown for Friday by the global models - there remains great uncertainty on exact positioning and potential intensity of the winds. Location will matter on areas at greatest risk of strongest of the winds.
Eyes peeled on the models!
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Tomorrow, 26th September
More info: www.instagram.com/p/DAW0QSdiBLE/
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Today
Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org
More info: www.instagram.com/p/DALV3XLClzZ/
[UPDATE 1] Thunderstorms are expected to develop again through this afternoon, some of which may be locally strong.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Tomorrow, 20th September
Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org
More info: www.instagram.com/p/DAGfQ18C8pw/
[UPDATE 1] A trough moving through tomorrow afternoon, with embedded instability, will allow the development of thundery showers and thunderstorms.
A sunshine and shower kind of day again - less windy today so could fly the drone up and catch this passing heavy shower ☔️
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Tomorrow, 6th September
Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org
More info: www.instagram.com/p/C_iMn87C-Lp/
[UPDATE 1] Through early tomorrow morning, with an unstable air continuing to be present, this is likely to bring a further risk of thunderstorms.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Tomorrow, 1st September
Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org
More info: www.instagram.com/p/C_WCbEaij84/
[UPDATE 1] Significant uncertainty remains on thunderstorm development, if any, through tomorrow afternoon.
Meteorological summer ends tomorrow, and what a rather uneventful summer it's been in terms of weather for me! The only real things I will take away from this summer's weather is end of July heat, thunderstorms on 1st August and Storm Lilian.
Perhaps a little less uncertainty now.
ECM OP and its ensembles remain rather keen on a disturbance to be stuck and move over the UK and to our W/SW
GFS differs, but there are about 17/30 of its ensembles suggesting a scenario more akin of the ECMWF.
ECMWF ensembles largely supportive of ECM OP.
A decent weekend coming up! Temperatures generally around 18-22°C. SE looks to be more prone to cloud this time around, but plenty of dry weather in store.
Might need to watch the possibility of something thundery through Sunday in the SE.
Significant discrepancies arise just 5 days out with how this weakness plays out, as undoubtedly, the positioning of the resulting disturbance (or the 'green blob of doom' as I like to call it) will matter on how warm it gets.
High pressure beginning to build in today, what looks to be a rather warm and sunny weekend!
However.. as I mentioned a couple days ago, that weakness in between the initial build of pressure and a rebuild of the Azores high needed watching, which continues to be modeled.
All that build of high pressure just for us to sit under the 'green blob' of doom thanks to a weakness in the ridging. 🧐
One of many possible outcomes as we go into this weekend and start of next week.
Please be aware that currently the weather
It is a different disturbance that has developed courtesy of an active jet after Ernesto's passage this morning. The remnants of Ernesto have been largely consumed by the larger more dominant low to the east of Iceland, while Lilian is a discreet intensifying area of low pressure.
#StormLilian located just to the west of Ireland at the moment
Possible rainfall totals over the next 72 hours ☔️
With #StormLilian being named, that brings this storm season's storm count to 12, beating 2015/16's 11 to become the most active storm season so far.
Additionally, Lilian is the 5th named storm in August and the 2nd latest named storm on record, just beaten by Francis (2020) named on 24th August.
ChatGPT does not mess around 🫢
#Ernesto remains a hurricane at a relatively high latitude of 43.8°N (similar latitude to just off the northern coast of Spain).
Going to be a windy one tomorrow afternoon through the majority of the country. Widespread heavy showers in the NW, some, potentially a bit thundery.
Weather we so love is back ☔️
Wildfires from Canada making for a murky sunset here in the UK. Cheeky shot of an airplane on the right of course!