Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas

Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought

- Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas

#AMOC #climatecrisis
Story by me

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

CCC cost of net zero analysis: comment New analysis by the CCC on the cost of net zero: comment

Cost of net zero by 2050 less than a single fossil fuel price shock.
#climate
eciu.net/media/press-...

New summit in Colombia seeks to revive stalled UN talks on fossil fuel transition Colombia will host the first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, after more than 80 countries pushed at COP30 for an end to coal, oil and gas

One month until the first conference on transitioning away from #fossilfuels 👀.

Some in depth overview by @sebastianrodvar.bsky.social 👇

Shared some thoughts how necessary this is & that we expect progress in two tiers: Phase out champions + countries who move slower but in the right direction.

Significant acceleration of global warming since 2015, finds news PIK study with @rahmstorf.bsky.social
Recent warming: around ~0.35°C per decade.
1970–2015 average: just under 0.2°C per dec.
➡️Current rate is higher than in any decade since records began in 1880.
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Humanity heating planet faster than ever before, study finds Researchers identify sharp rise to about 0.35C every decade, after excluding natural fluctuations such as El Niño

The Guardian on our new study, which shows that global heating is significantly gathering speed. Our efforts to overcome our fossil fuel addiction should do the same.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Thirty years of glacier grounding line retreat in Antarctica | PNAS The Grounding Line (GL)—the transition from ice grounded on the continent and ice afloat in the ocean—is a sensitive indicator of glacier stability...

Between 1992-2025, large areas of the grounding line of #Antarctic glaciers have retreated. The largest changes have occurred in W. Antarctica, where grounding lines have retreated 10-40+ km, driven by incursions of warm water masses along deep bathymetric troughs

www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....

❄️🧪🌊

Limiting warming to 2C is ‘crucial’ to protect pristine Antarctic Peninsula - Carbon Brief Keeping global warming to less than 2C above pre-industrial temperatures is “crucial” for limiting damage to the Antarctic Peninsula’s unique ecosystems

Limiting warming to 2C or below is crucial to protect pristine Antarctic Peninsula! ❄️🧪🌊

Summary of the paper by @carbonbrief.org :

www.carbonbrief.org/limiting-war...

Full paper:

www.frontiersin.org/journals/env...

Climate change and its impact on the Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic Peninsula, part of the British Antarctic Territory, is a global biodiversity hotspot, and a focus of tourism, scientific and fishing operations. The region is warming rapidly, at up to t...

The future of the Antarctic Peninsula under three different scenarios - the choices we make today determine the future.
Policy Brief with @granthamicl.bsky.social
spiral.imperial.ac.uk/entities/pub...

NEW – Limiting warming to 2C is ‘crucial’ to protect pristine Antarctic Peninsula

✍️ @giulianaviglione.bsky.social
💬 comments from @iceybethan.bsky.social @treacherousbuzz.bsky.social @tridatta.bsky.social @scottdoney.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/wELuQCm

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review, Ritchie, Paul D L, Steinert, Norman J, Abrams, Jesse F, Alkhayuon, Hassan, Arnscheidt, Constantin W, Bochow, Nils, Chapman, Ruth R, Clarke, Joseph, Dennis, Donovan P, Donges, Jonathan F, Flores, Bernardo M, Garbe, Julius, Högner, Annika, Huntingford, Chris, Lenton, Timothy M, Lohmann, Johannes, Lux-Gottschalk, Kerstin, Milkoreit, Manjana, Möller, Tessa, Pearce-Kelly, Paul, Pereira, Laura, Quinn, Courtney, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Stuenzi, Simone M, Swingedouw, Didier, Van der Laan, Larissa N, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Wunderling, Nico

New review paper on "The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements"

Main points:
Overshooting 1.5°C raises risks of irreversible Earth-system tipping, which depends on peak warming and more so on how long critical thresholds are exceeded.

doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Revealed: 10 new insights in climate science Each year, the world’s leading climate scientists evaluate the most critical evidence on how our planet is changing. Their assessments draw heavily on data from Earth-observing satellites – and the la...

Revealed: 10 new insights in climate science (and they are not good)

www.esa.int/Applications...

New study analyses the tipping points of different #Antarctica drainage basins.

A first threshold, 1–2 °C above preindustrial levels, triggers the long-term collapse of 40% of marine ice in West Antarctica!

Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica are at risk of losing stability at 2–5 °C.

❄️🧪🌊

Figure 1 from the paper.

3/ We analyzed 18 major Antarctic ice drainage basins using the ice-sheet model #PISM, gradually increasing global mean temperature to map their long-term response.

Result: different regions respond very differently to warming.

Photo showing a tall, jagged ice front of the Ronne Ice Shelf in West Antarctica rising above the calm surface of the Weddell Sea. Credit: Torsten Albrecht / PIK.

🔔🚨 New Publication Alert!

Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.

We found: it’s not one — it’s many.

📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...

📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Tread below 🧵👇

NEW ANALYSIS: China's CO2 has now been 'flat or falling' for 21 months

* Down in 2025
* Still below Mar 2024
* Clean energy wave a key factor

If this is China's peak (TBC) it's the climate story of the century so far…

www.carbonbrief.org/...

Rising temperatures could to lead to the loss of thousands of glaciers per year, with up to ~4,000 vanishing annually under high emissions.

1.5°C could halve this loss 🧵

@landervt.bsky.social @harryzeko.bsky.social @matthias-huss.bsky.social @davidrounce.bsky.social @lilianschuster.bsky.social

Why Greenland is indispensable to global climate science With no Antarctica-style treaty to protect Greenland, a US takeover could mean scientists lose access.

As world leaders, businesses and civil society gather in #Davos for the #WEF, here is a timely reminder why Greenland is indispensable to global #climate science 🧪

via: Prof Martin Siegert in @theconversation.com

theconversation.com/why-greenlan...

INSTANT invites you to a webinar on climate science diplomacy with Dr. James Kirkham (International Cryosphere Climate Initiative).

"Climate science diplomacy: What is it? How do YOU do it? And how can we make policymakers care about ice?”

📅 30 January, 12:00 CET
scar.org/scar-news/pr...

Amazingly, Zahawi only got round to deleting the below after the press conference announcing his defection to Reform.

Trump moves to pull US out of bedrock global climate treaty, becoming first country to do so | CNN The Trump administration is pulling the United States out of the bedrock treaty that underpins international cooperation on climate change, along with dozens of other global bodies.

Trump moves to pull the US from bedrock climate treaty, UN IPCC and other int'l orgs & UN agencies. In doing so, the US becomes the only country to withdraw from this particular climate agreement dating back to 1992 (UNFCCC). www.cnn.com/2026/01/07/c...

Merriam-Webster’s human editors have chosen ‘slop’ as the 2025 Word of the Year.

Earth’s frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change – but politicians are ignoring it!

👇Commentary in @theconversation.com about recent efforts to downplay and diminish #science at #COP30

🧪🌊❄️

Earth’s frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change – but politicians are ignoring it The warning lights from the cryosphere have been flashing red for several years and governments and policymakers ignore this at their peril.

As scientists 🧪 who regularly attend UN #climate summits, we've noticed efforts to downplay, confuse and dilute the latest scientific findings, especially from the cryosphere ❄️.

This is alarming.

More details in @theconversation.com

theconversation.com/earths-froze...

@geogdurham.bsky.social

Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change Many mountain glaciers will disappear with warming. Here the authors assess how many glaciers will disappear per year under different warming scenarios, finding that a peak in glacier loss will happen...

#Glacier #extinction rates will peak within decades, with thousands of glaciers disappearing each year by 2040s. Peak extinction rates in #Alps will be reached in the 2030s.

Urgent policy action can still prevent thousands of glaciers from being lost per year.

🧪❄️ www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Join us at UNEA-7 this Thursday Dec. 11 on International Mountain Day:

Moderated by @unep.org's Mr. Lewis Pugh, the event will focus on cryosphere changes, regional solutions for mountain ecosystems, and frameworks for assessing losses of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

🔗 Livestream below!

2025 is on course to be joint-second warmest year.
The #C3S Climate Bulletin reports that November was 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the third-warmest November on record. The 2023–2025 average is likely to be the first three-year average exceeding 1.5°C.

Find more info ⬇️

G20 DECLARATION: Fascinating to see this doc explicitly "welcome" the "global stocktake" from COP28, which included the call to "transition away from fossil fuels"…

This comes after it proved impossible to secure similar language at COP30, which was also chaired by Brazil

Reflections on COP30 Global Mutirão final decision text:

After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

🎞️ After COP30 fire and floods: AMOC shutdown 🔥🌊

Our event on #AMOC shutdown was interrupted by the fire at #COP30 yesterday – but this is an important message so we wanted to make sure you heard it.

▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0e...

@rahmstorf.bsky.social @iccinet.bsky.social

After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

Despite 🔥 and 🌧 at #COP30, we are happy to share the latest info on #AMOC shutdown from @rahmstorf.bsky.social, including perspectives from Iceland and UK govs filmed after the COP venue was evacuated!

Important messages to heed as COP30 negotiations go to the wire!

🧪🌊

youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA