#Islamabad is worried that if #Iran keeps attacking Saudi, #Riyadh will ask Pakistan to join the war. A nightmare. Pakistani Sunnis value a good relation w Saudi, Riyadh helps w cash when needed & it is the biggest source of remittances (~2.5 mln Pakistanis). So mediation it is!
The #EU continues to lose credibility globally. By refusing to suspend its trade deal w #Israel & w countries like Germany & Italy reported to have opposed such a move, it sends a message that economic interests outweigh #humanrights. And the Global South is watching.
#Tigray slips again: TPLF moves to restore its own government, accusing #Addis of failing to implement the 2022 peace deal & protect #Tigrayan autonomy. W conflicts in Amhara & Oromia ongoing, Abiy isn’t losing the state outright but his grip is fragmenting, crisis by crisis.
#Kyiv working HARD to offset the impact of higher oil prices on Russia’s income: in March the #Kremlin lost ~€2.3 billion in #oil rev as Ukrainian drones forced refinery outages turning energy into a battlefield. Yet the Russian economy is still expected to grow by ~1.1% in 2026
Reuters: #Pakistan just froze a $1.5B #Sudan arms deal after #Saudi Arabia pulled financing and told Islamabad to step back. Its defence exports gained prominence after its limited conflicts w India showcased the performance of its jets & air defence systems.
#Pakistan has stakes in the Iran war due to its large Shia population, its reliance on Middle East oil & Gulf remittances. Its leveraging its ties to mediate; strikingly, #Tehran is engaging despite #Islamabad’s defence pact w Saudi, while India’s efforts to isolate it fall flat.
The #Iranwar could cost Americans $1 TRILLION (Harvard Academic). They already face soaring #gas prices, inflation & mortgage interest rates. And courts are forcing the US gov to refund ~$127B in Trump-era #tariffs; costs companies already passed on to consumers.
#Israel may have played one of its strongest cards too early, using intel to assassinate the supreme leader. Huge tactical win, but it burns a top rung on the #escalation ladder. The bigger miscalculation: assuming the regime would collapse & ignoring #Iranian resilience
#Iran forced Israel into a ceasefire with Lebanon. By choking the Strait of #Hormuz, it triggered global pressure that forced the US into crisis diplomacy. Trump calling Netanyahu for a Lebanon ceasefire wasn’t random but a reaction. The #Pakistanis are in Tehran to mediate the next phase.
Iran benefits from the #Lebanon #ceasefire by keeping #Hezbollah intact, avoiding further Israeli damage, and gaining leverage in wider negotiations while buying time to regroup and reduce direct military pressure.
Al Jazeera: Israeli military acknowledged that it underestimated #Hezbollah’s capabilities, w rockets & drones reaching deeper into Israel than expected. #Netanyahu tried to eliminate Hezbollah & separate the #Lebanon front from Iran but failed, fueling growing anxiety inside Israel.
Not long ago, the narrative was #Iran is weak & just one push away from internal collapse.
Now a $13B US aircraft carrier sails around #Africa to avoid Iran-backed #Houthis.
That’s not weakness; that’s power projection. Iran is starting to look like an emerging global power.
Trump talks diplomacy w #Iran, but the signals: MORE US TROOPS & a US naval #blockade (1st threshold). That blockade hits wider (China-linked) trade flows in the region (2nd thresh). If the #Houthis block the Redsea that would be catastrophic for the global economy (3rd thresh).
Israelis aren’t celebrating the US–Iran #ceasefire; many are anxious. With #Iran still standing, key threats unresolved, and #Israel sidelined in talks, there’s a growing fear this is just a pause before the next round of conflict.
China’s exposure to the #Iranwar is bigger than it appears: it depends on steady Gulf oil, exports are already under pressure and weak domestic demand hasn’t fully recovered. A #Hormuz shock raises costs and risks growth. Upside for Trump: #Beijing may push Iran toward a deal.
FT reports #Iran used a Chinese-built spy #satellite (TEE-01B) to monitor U.S. bases and assess strikes, citing leaked docs. If true, this is a major upgrade for Iran — giving it near real-time #surveillance and far more precise targeting than it’s had before.
Polls: Israel rapidly losing support among #Republicans, while Italy’s PM Giorgia #Meloni just suspended defense coop. after Israeli forces fired on Italian UN troops. Meanwhile #Hezbollah still putting up stiff resistance w drones & missiles, even without its Syria-Iran corridor.
Ethiopia’s plan for new #Nile dams, despite #Egyptian objections & US mediation, signals a deepening rift over the river’s control. Tensions betw Cairo & #Addis set to rise again. And it comes while Addis has it hands full w insurgencies involving Fano, Tigray-linked groups & OLA.
The global economic fallout could be catastrophic if #Trump doesn’t back down from his blockade of the Strait of #Hormuz. Biggest risks: a massive spike in #oil prices, global supply chain disruptions, surging inflation & potential military escalation. A dangerous game.
The #Pope warned war is a “defeat for humanity,” urging peace over escalation in #Iran & said migrants must be treated w dignity. Trump hit back, calling him “weak on foreign policy” & saying “I’m not a fan of Pope Leo.”
Italian PM #Meloni called Trump’s words “unacceptable.”
Analysts: 🇮🇱 fell short of key war aims: #Hamas & #Hezbollah remain intact & in Iran it hasn’t secured #uranium, regime change, dismantled missile programs or proxy backing. Viewing Iran as an big threat & after its record in Gaza, it may now weigh more extreme (nuclear) options
#Iran is watching as the US burns goodwill w allies across the Gulf, East Asia & Europe- acting solo as energy shocks spread & security priorities shift. Asian partners worry about diverted military assets & oil flows, making #Tehran more willing to sit out a #blockade
After #Iran, Israel increasingly sees Türkiye as a major regional challenge. It’s pushing back against #Turkish influence in Syria incl. limits on Syrian forces south of Damascus. At the same time, it’s deepening military ties w Greece (and Cyprus) as a counterweight to #Ankara.
Analysts: the war seems to have backfired on Israel. Airstrikes weakened Iran but hardened the regime, unified society & pushed it more radical. #Tehran now controls the Strait of #Hormuz & could extract tens of billions annually in fees w #nuclear capability more likely soon
Pape: War modelling show the same escalation curve
Stage 1: bombing hardens regimes
Stage 2: horizontal escalation (blockade of #Hormuz)
Stage 3: ground war or #Iran as an emerging global power: 🇮🇷s leverage is already showing as 🇮🇳 & 🇯🇵 refuse to join the US due to the #blockade
Analysts: #Iran is a highly nationalistic state fighting for its survival; it won’t just fold if Trump blockades #Hormuz. This contradicts earlier policy on Iranian & Russian #oil & risks a supply shock hitting global markets hard; expect world leaders to call the White House.
Analysts: #Iran is a highly nationalistic state fighting for its survival; it won’t just fold if Trump blockades #Hormuz. This contradicts earlier policy on Iranian & Russian #oil & risks a supply shock hitting global markets hard; expect world leaders to call the white house
After the collapse of talks, #Tehran likely to prepare for a prolonged conflict, seeking stronger air defenses (potentially from 🇨🇳) & deeper intel ties w #Russia.
If the war goes on, the 🇺🇸 burns through more of its precious #interceptor stocks, at the cost of readiness in Asia.
#Pakistan hosting US – #Iran talks is a high-stakes #diplomatic move: boosting its global image, strengthening ties, and pushing for regional stability. But if it fails, it risks losing credibility, facing pressure from both sides, and being pulled into regional tensions.