"Hormuz does not yet signal the end of this hydrocarbon dollar complex, which has always been a combustible mix of power and volatility. But it does reveal the structural changes that would be needed for a hegemonic transition."
Absolute banger from @mona-ali.bsky.social
ABSTRACT With global coal demand estimated to peak this year, and prices returning to pre-COVID levels (IEA 2025), is there now a unique opportunity to limit the expansion of new thermal coal mines? The paper first outlines the potential for an international agreement to limit the approval of new, export-oriented thermal coal mines by 2026, and to do so in a manner that may appeal to the economic and political interests of coal-exporting states. It then outlines how such an agreement would build on a range of initiatives that have developed within the UN climate negotiations, as well as how it could unlock challenging negotiations over the 'transition away from fossil fuels'. Finally, it will outline how Australia is ideally placed to promote such a scheme, which would support its ongoing co-hosting role within the UN climate talks (COP31) in 2026.
šØNew online: discussion paper by Christopher Wright, "How a no new coal mining treaty could align climate and coal mining interests ahead of COP31". ā¬ļø
www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....
#AcademicPublishing #AcademicSky #InternationalRelations
What book was this? Iāve always had a vague memory of Pauline predicting this but I forget the source.
This week we look at structural theory in #POIR2030. Here's structural realist John Mearsheimer interviewed by Tom Switzer on why the war against Iran does not advance US national interests:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLa9...
Vibecoded this "World Politics Compass" questionare for my #POIR2030 Theories of World Politics class (thanks Anthropic)
www.worldpoliticscompass.com
We're in a lovely interregnum where AI will make nice things for teaching, but hasn't yet taken my job.
Also relevant to US/Iran: this broadly structural realist 2007 paper by @proftalmadge.bsky.social on Iranian threat to Strait of Hormuz.
NB: drone boats have since lowered costs of harassment, so Talmage's timeline for reopening Strait likely needs revision.
www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/...
In any normal week this would be a huge story. France moves toward extending a nuclear umbrella over European allies-- a major sign of declining credibility of US extended deterrence.
www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
Trump wrecked US diplomacy on purpose and now itās making everything harder because he doesnāt understand that diplomacy is a tool of war. Itās not the opposite of war!
goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...
This was such a fun and interesting conversation!
Podcast for #POIR2030 students: Realist @stephenwalt.bsky.social outlines why he characterises Trump's United States as a "Predatory Hegemon": www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/ame...
Podcast for #POIR2030 students: Realist Stephen Walt outlines his account of how the US became a "Predatory Hegemon: www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/ame...
"President Trump may get lucky and find that his attacks achieve some outcomes that serve US interests. But it is hard to envision that the net result will be an improvement in US or world security."
Shannon Brincat and Juan Zahir Naranjo CƔceres: "The joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran represent a further erosion of the international legal order. Under international law, these attacks are neither preemptive nor lawful." theconversation.com/neither-pree...
Hi #POIR2030 Theories of World Politics students - I'm excited that Macquarie Uni IT have created a Bluesky block for ilearn.
For the next 15 weeks I'll be sharing content for our unit to this block. If you're on bluesky and want to post here please use #POIR2030 and I'll repost you to the class.
āCoercion-as-habit is domination stripped of hegemonic obligation. No public goods, international order, or attempt to manufacture consent. Just the power to kill, wielded for the sake of nonsenseālibido, spectacle, oligarch payola.ā www.un-diplomatic.com/p/coercive-b...
āAlbanese told Reuters she had āreceived offers to open bank accounts in so-called fiscal or tax havens,ā but declined, saying that would conflict with her ethical principles and wouldnāt resolve āthe illegality of the U.S. sanctions against me.āā
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Whatās the Chinese equivalent?
If Australia and Indonesia agreed to end new thermal coal mines, it could drive the green transition - @aunz.theconversation.com
theconversation.com/if-australia...
Is a treaty to end thermal coal mine approvals possible?
Sounds counterintuitive, but Chris Wright argues the treaty's cartel-like logic might win industry support for climate goals.
New piece in @theconvo-bot.bsky.social explores why Indonesia + Australia alone could shift the global market.
āā¦the task is to rationalize growth: to expand and develop the forces of production so that they might better enable and express the fundamental end of animals like us. In other words, our freedom.ā thepointmag.com/politics/rad...
Feel like a man throwing a homemade IED into a large crowd at an invasion day rally should be bigger news
This is beyond the pale.
Trump's "board of peace" is a sham to formalise the genocide, and against all intl law. The Albanese govt has no right to make Australia complicit.
Budyko's conclusion: that more research and global regulation are needed.
Fascinating interview, but note Mikhail Budyko and other Soviet scientists anticipated solar geoengineering would be needed to address climate change by mid C20th. Budyko's "Climatic Changes", published in English in 1977, concludes with analysis of stratospheric aerosol dispersal...
Global CO2 emissions are showing signs of levelling, thanks to a slight decline in net land-use change emissions offsetting continued growth in fossil emissions.
The trends are way off compared to the 1.5C scenarios with no or low overshoot assessed in the IPCC.
Details: bsky.app/profile/glen...
Hanging onto every bit of good news
The river has come alive in the Klamath with wild Chinook salmon. The wider ecosystem is healing.
This most powerful story of Indigenous-led #rewilding after the largest dam removal in US history keeps getting better.
lostcoastoutpost.com/2025/oct/9/o...
Alan Kohler's analysis of Australia's 2035 target: New CSIRO modelling suggests Australia's new targets are difficult to achieve, and even if they are, we won't be fine. #POIR3970
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...
#poir3970 as promised, hereās conservative UK PM Margaret Thatcher speaking about Climate Change in 1989. youtu.be/aSrBO4_qPzo?...
