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Posts by Hollie Watson-Smith

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Controlling Contagion How human institutions—markets, states, communities, religions, guilds and families—have helped both to control and to exacerbate epidemics throughout history.

New book on how human institutions have both exacerbated and try to control epidemics. I haven't seen it yet. But seems like it's one to keep an eye out for when it's released in a couple of months: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco... #GlobalHealth #PublicHealth #EpiSky

1 year ago 58 16 0 1
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The high viral load in raw milk is fueling the spread of #H5N1 among #cattle herds. It is putting other animals, as well as humans, at risk if they ingest contaminated raw milk. 🧪💉 #Episky #IDSky #MedSky

1 year ago 6 4 2 0
How has the risk of dying from cancer changed in the United States?

To understand this, we can look at national cancer death rates in the United States.

The gray line shows the crude rate, which is the rate of deaths from cancer per 100,000 people. It has risen between 1950 and 1990 and has fallen slightly since then.

However, cancer death rates rise sharply with age, and the age of the US population has increased since 1950, so we would expect cancer death rates to rise for that reason alone.

What if we adjust for the increased age of the US population?

The red line, the age-standardized rate, shows this. It shows the cancer death rate if the age structure of the US population was held constant throughout.

This shows a slight rise until 1990 and then a significant decline; rates have fallen by one-third.

This means Americans are now one-third less likely to die from cancer at the same ages as Americans in 1990.

This comes from several factors: better screening and earlier diagnosis, medical advances in cancer treatments, and public health efforts to reduce risk factors like smoking and exposure to carcinogens.

How has the risk of dying from cancer changed in the United States? To understand this, we can look at national cancer death rates in the United States. The gray line shows the crude rate, which is the rate of deaths from cancer per 100,000 people. It has risen between 1950 and 1990 and has fallen slightly since then. However, cancer death rates rise sharply with age, and the age of the US population has increased since 1950, so we would expect cancer death rates to rise for that reason alone. What if we adjust for the increased age of the US population? The red line, the age-standardized rate, shows this. It shows the cancer death rate if the age structure of the US population was held constant throughout. This shows a slight rise until 1990 and then a significant decline; rates have fallen by one-third. This means Americans are now one-third less likely to die from cancer at the same ages as Americans in 1990. This comes from several factors: better screening and earlier diagnosis, medical advances in cancer treatments, and public health efforts to reduce risk factors like smoking and exposure to carcinogens.

Americans are now one-third less likely to die from cancer at the same ages as Americans in 1990

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Nobel Laureates Urge Senate to Turn Down Kennedy’s Nomination Elevating Mr. Kennedy to secretary of H.H.S. “would put the public’s health in jeopardy,” more than 75 laureates wrote.

More than 75 Nobel Prize winners have signed a letter urging senators not to confirm RFK Jr.

The letter marks the first time in recent memory that Nobel laureates have banded together against a Cabinet choice. But Kennedy is a threat they could not ignore, one said. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/h...

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1 year ago 57 11 3 1

One of my favorites. I think I’m an astronaut in an alternate reality.

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The Democrats of the COVID Sub Committee released their own final report.

Opening: "the Republican-led Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic fueled extreme narratives vilifying America's public health officials, scientists, and teachers".

oversightdemocrats.house.gov/news/press-r...

1 year ago 95 35 6 2
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Unknown disease kills 143 in southwest Congo, local authorities say An unknown disease killed 143 people in Democratic Republic of the Congo's southwestern province in November, local authorities told Reuters.

In November, 143 people died of an “unknown disease” in a rural area of Democratic Republic of the Congo. These individuals had flu-like symptoms such as a high fever and severe headaches, and the number of people infected continues to rise.

1 year ago 139 61 4 24
Three graphs showing how diphtheria, polio, and measles cases all declined right after mass vaccination.

Three graphs showing how diphtheria, polio, and measles cases all declined right after mass vaccination.

These trends weren't an accident.

cdn.britannica.com/04/20904-050...

1 year ago 202 76 3 7
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For nearly 20 years, I've posted all my teaching slides & materials on my dedicated teaching website

Do check it out!

If you want to use anything, no need to ask for permission - just use with credit!

www.teachepi.org

1 year ago 137 29 16 2

Our public health workforce is still dealing with burnout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Inexperienced senior “leaders” doesn’t help us feel any better.

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CDC confirms H5N1 Bird Flu Infection in a Child in California The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed a human infection with avian infl

Not news that is nice to wake up to 🫠

The good: Mild case, presumably no adaptations like in Canadian case

The bad: Unknown source of infection, whole family reported symptoms

The ugly: Case numbers increasing and adaptation risk is still there
#IDSky #ViroSky

www.cdc.gov/media/releas...

1 year ago 10 5 0 0

The Journal of Clinical Epidemiology is, as of today, present at Bluesky 🎉

And, only here, you can have a sneak preview of our new journal and website design.

But of course, our contents remains key, with many thanks to our authors, reviewers, editorial board and editorial team

1 year ago 1195 74 28 4

Trump just named former Rep. Dave Weldon as his pick to lead the CDC.

While in Congress, Weldon introduced legislation to move oversight of vaccine safety from the CDC to an independent agency within HHS, which under Trump would be headed up by anti-vaxxer RFK Jr.

1 year ago 1974 653 134 48
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bart simpson and lisa simpson are sitting at a table with a plate of food . ALT: bart simpson and lisa simpson are sitting at a table with a plate of food .

📍marked safe from measles today
#vaccineswork

1 year ago 24 2 1 0

The truth is, none of us really know what the next four years will look like. It’s incredibly difficult to predict what happens next. It does not feel good.

1 year ago 44082 3924 2595 379

Hi, are you bluescrolling? Have you eaten something today?
Drank a glass of water?
Taken your meds?

Deep breaths. One thing at a time. And try not to slouch.

1 year ago 217 28 13 3
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In 2021, between 1.14 million and 4.71 million people died because of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 🦠💊. Check out the MICROBE tool (Measuring Infectious Causes and Resistance Outcomes for Burden Estimation) from colleagues @ #IHME and #Oxford https://buff.ly/3UXziKA
#IDSky #PedsIDSky #Medsky

1 year ago 14 2 2 0
Figure showing levels of respiratory pathogens detected in the Seattle Flu Study fom 2018 to 2024-- can see dramatic drop in levels for pathogens from early 2020 to mid 2021 when mixing was much lower due to COVID precautions.

Figure showing levels of respiratory pathogens detected in the Seattle Flu Study fom 2018 to 2024-- can see dramatic drop in levels for pathogens from early 2020 to mid 2021 when mixing was much lower due to COVID precautions.

I knew flu all but disappeared but fascinating to see the low levels of other respiratory pathogens during time of peak COVID precautions.

Tons of great #dataviz overall in this 🔥@ourworldindata.bsky.social COVID report: ourworldindata.org/key-charts-u...

#publichealth #episky #demography

1 year ago 136 42 5 3
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Epidemiology and clinical presentation of the four human parainfluenza virus types - PubMed HPIV infection led to a wide spectrum of symptoms, and similar clinical manifestations were found in the patients with four different types of HPIVs. The study suggested pathogenic activity of HPIV in...

An odd observation for higher HPIV-3 cases in summers... seems to be related to the fact that HPIV-1 is bi-annual. So in even-numbered years, -3 has a more extended season from its usual Mar-Jun peaks.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23343342/

1 year ago 0 1 1 0

A common refrain I hear is:
The current children vaccine schedule has “too many vaccines, given too soon.”

The truth: current schedule, despite more vaccines, has a MUCH LOWER “immune burden” than previously.

In 1980: 3041 targets
In 2000: ~125 targets

immunizebc.ca/sites/default/…

1 year ago 227 67 9 8

Hello @bsky.app family!

1 year ago 2071 371 169 80
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How Wisconsin Lost Control of the Strange Disease Killing Its Deer Despite early containment efforts, chronic wasting disease has been allowed to run rampant in the state. That’s bad news for all of us.

“Highly contagious and 100 percent fatal to the cervids that contract it, CWD is not caused by living organisms such as bacteria or parasites, nor by a virus. Instead, it is caused by misfolded proteins called prions that, once they infect an animal, build up in the brain and body”

1 year ago 71 24 7 3

Annual morbidity in the 20th century, before and after vaccines:

Measles:
Before: 530,000, After: 47

Mumps:
Before: 160,000, After: 429

Rubella:
Before: 50,000, After: 3

Diphtheria:
Before: 20,000, After: 2

Smallpox:
Before: 30,000, After: 0

Polio:
Before: 16,000, After: 0

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The preliminary sequence from the H5N1 human case in British Columbia has been posted and it is not good news. The virus potentially has a quasispecies at HA residue 226 (H3 numbering). This is bad news because we know that mutations at residue 226 can increase binding to human receptors. 1/

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Good day to remind everyone

Around the globe the measles vaccine has saved nearly 94 million lives over the past 50 years

www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...

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