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Posts by The Cruncher

This is just one possible solution; it can happen as early as this week if Dragons beat Manly and Panthers lose to Bulldogs

2 days ago 1 0 0 0

A full cycle (circle of parity) can be achieved with just 2 more results:
Tigers beat Panthers
Dragons beat Tigers

2 days ago 0 0 0 1

The longest chain is 16 teams long:
Panthers → Roosters → Rabbitohs → Bulldogs → Raiders → Sea Eagles → Dolphins → Sharks → Warriors → Knights → Cowboys → Storm → Eels → Broncos → Titans → Dragons

2 days ago 0 0 1 0
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NRL Match Path Update - Round 5

2 days ago 4 1 1 0
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Panthers are WAY ahead on the latest model ratings

1 week ago 1 1 0 0

Kayo seems to make my computer really slow lately :/

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

(grey labels mean the team is yet to both win and lose a match)

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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A circle of parity would be achieved with just 4 more results:
1. Brisbane Lions beat Gold Coast
2. Richmond beat West Coast
3. Essendon beat Western Bulldogs
4. Collingwood beat Brisbane Lions

2 weeks ago 0 0 3 0
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AFL Match Path Update - Round 2

No cycles yet, but the longest path is up to 10 teams long: Suns-Cats-Freo-Dees-Saints-Giants-Hawks-Swans-Carlton-Richmond

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

probably helped out a little by the NRL's official predictor not working

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0
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it's crazy what making your page's description visible to Google can do

2 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

To achieve a full circle of parity, at least 5 more results are required. One possible solution is:

1. Titans beat Panthers
2. Dragons beat Bulldogs
3. Sea Eagles beat Dolphins
4. Sharks beat Knights
5. Knights beat Warriors

2 weeks ago 2 0 0 0
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NRL Match Chain Update - Round 3

We have our first mini circle of parity: Broncos-Storm-Eels, and the longest chain is 6 teams long: Warriors-Roosters-Rabbitohs-Dolphins-Sharks-Titans

2 weeks ago 5 2 1 0
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If only Flanno had told his players this before the match, could've really helped out

#NRLEelsDragons

2 weeks ago 3 0 0 0
Preview
NRL Round 1 margins & set restarts, plus the return of expected points - The Rugby League Eye Test The opening round of the 2026 National Rugby League season has seen quite a lot happen, with two golden point games and two teams getting Scott Bailey’d. And the return of the Eye Test’s expected poin...

Some analysis on the increased set restart number & high margins from Round 1, including just how many set restarts occurred between 20-40 metres

Plus the return of the Eye Test's expected points model, with ETxP charts for every game

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2026/03/09/n...

1 month ago 3 4 2 0

Note that the sample size is too low to say anything definitive yet, but it's definitely something to keep our eyes on

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

Two teams (Broncos and Eels) landed themselves in the bottom 6% on % Possessions

1 month ago 0 0 1 0
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37% of losing NRL teams from 2023-2026 have had more possessions than their opposition. None have so far in 2026.

1 month ago 2 2 1 0

I'm scared to read the xScore for this first half #AFLLionsDogs

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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ummm #NRLManlyRaiders

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

Anyone else getting flashbacks to last year's prelim? Panthers dominated the first half there too

#NRLBroncosPanthers

1 month ago 2 0 1 0

Anyone heard more about the two-hand jumping rule change?

#NRLWarriorsRoosters

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

Reckon it should be reflective of what colours each team is currently wearing, much more accessible and better for new fans

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

Looks a little odd with Warriors wearing blue and red, and Roosters blue and red on the Fox score graphics

#NRLWarriorsRoosters

1 month ago 0 0 1 0

Model estimates for tonight's Sydney-Carlton match are now up at @squiggle.au

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Preview
What did the 2026 NRL Las Vegas matches show us? I’m officially back for 2026, and I’m aiming to write at least twice a month this season.

NEW ARTICLE OUT: What did the 2026 NRL Las Vegas matches show us?

I discuss the new Fox AI innovations, introduce a new statistic, and investigate Dally M Medal vote earners from Vegas.

thecruncherau.substack.com/p/what-did-t...

1 month ago 6 1 0 0
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Expected Dally M votes from #NRLBulldogsCowboys:

Once again, the model is very uncertain of who will receive votes here - even more so than the first match!

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

I know it's only two games into the year, lemme have my fun

1 month ago 2 0 0 0
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If the 2026 NRL Dally M Medal were awarded now, Kalyn Ponga would be the favourite per my model's estimates

1 month ago 2 2 1 0
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Expected Dally M votes from #NRLKnightsCowboys:

Knights players dominate, but not any obvious selections for stand out players; judges might have a tricky time here

1 month ago 1 0 0 0