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Posts by Marco Giani

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Mahmood’s migration changes will deliver fraction of claimed savings, data suggests Exclusive: Analysis of government figures indicates public finances will gain £600m not £10bn if migrants’ access to benefits is reduced

My analysis of the fiscal impact of the "earned settlement" proposals, based on government's own data.

The direct savings are a fraction of the Home Secretary's misleading claims, and likely to be offset by the substantial costs of lower work-related migration.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

1 week ago 202 116 6 9
While the article had attributed the claim to “an analysis” of government figures, the Committee considered that the newspaper had not taken due care over the accuracy of the headline, which set out as fact that “More than one million foreign nationals are receiving benefits”. This did not make clear that the assertion was an estimate, and was presented without qualification. The print headline, as well as the online headline and its subheadline, did not accurately reflect warnings on reliability of the data, and presented the figures as fact, rather than an interpretation of the statistics by a third party. The Committee also considered that care had not been taken over the accuracy of the article, which did not make clear that it was not reporting on people’s nationality at the time they were claiming benefits, but their nationality at the time they first applied for a National Insurance number, which may have been significantly earlier. Absent this clarificatory information, the article was misleading to attribute the number of foreign nationals currently claiming benefits in the UK to this specific dataset.

While the article had attributed the claim to “an analysis” of government figures, the Committee considered that the newspaper had not taken due care over the accuracy of the headline, which set out as fact that “More than one million foreign nationals are receiving benefits”. This did not make clear that the assertion was an estimate, and was presented without qualification. The print headline, as well as the online headline and its subheadline, did not accurately reflect warnings on reliability of the data, and presented the figures as fact, rather than an interpretation of the statistics by a third party. The Committee also considered that care had not been taken over the accuracy of the article, which did not make clear that it was not reporting on people’s nationality at the time they were claiming benefits, but their nationality at the time they first applied for a National Insurance number, which may have been significantly earlier. Absent this clarificatory information, the article was misleading to attribute the number of foreign nationals currently claiming benefits in the UK to this specific dataset.

The full @ipso.co.uk ruling on my complaint against the Daily Telegraph.

The Telegraph (and the so-called "Centre for Migration Control, in fact just one random racist blogger) lied, and then doubled down on their lies.

www.ipso.co.uk/rulings/0100...

1 month ago 126 41 2 0

One of my favourite events in the conference season: young scholars sharing their superexciting research with us. Please, do apply and visit us at @kingsqpe.bsky.social

1 month ago 8 4 0 0
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A Danish lesson for Labour on how to stop migrants and start winning Like the home secretary, I visited recently to learn how the centre-left is riding high and reclaiming the asylum debate from the populist right

Denmark has *far* worse outcomes - economic, social and integration - than the UK.

Just a fantasyland for those who want an excuse for their own xenophobia and/or are incapable of doing the hard work of confronting the UK's real problems.

www.thetimes.com/world/europe...

1 month ago 615 154 25 26
BJPolS abstract text discussing economic inequality in the United States, focusing on its impact on the belief in the American dream among adolescents. It highlights findings from a study related to socioeconomic factors and belief systems.

BJPolS abstract text discussing economic inequality in the United States, focusing on its impact on the belief in the American dream among adolescents. It highlights findings from a study related to socioeconomic factors and belief systems.

NEW -

Adolescent Exposure to Economic Inequality and Belief in the ‘American Dream’ on Entering Adulthood - https://cup.org/4rmfyyE

- @sldemora.bsky.social & Benjamin J. Newman

#OpenAccess

2 months ago 10 7 0 0

agree, I feel like even the Appendix word count- which doesn't ever get printed or copy-edited - is regulated in increasingly different ways

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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What do we know about the effects of military conscription?  - Economics Observatory Mounting national security threats have led a number of European countries to consider reinstating mandatory military service. Proponents argue that it would bolster national defence and boost…

TODAY on the Economics Observatory – What do we know about the effects of military conscription?

By @vincenzobove.bsky.social, Riccardo Di Leo, @mgiani.bsky.social

4 months ago 2 2 0 0
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Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics at UCL An academic position as a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics is being advertised on jobs.ac.uk. Click now to find more details and explore additional academic job opportunities.

Not a drill - there's a Britain-focused lectureship (FT, permanent) available.

www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DPQ588/l...

4 months ago 34 37 0 0

🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨

We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social

Any questions, please reach out to me

📣 Please share! 📣

jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

4 months ago 115 109 2 5

very interesting research

5 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Lecturer in Economics | King's College London

📢 We’re hiring!

King's College London Political Economy is recruiting an Assistant Professor (Lecturer in the UK system) in Economics.

Apply here: www.kcl.ac.uk/jobs/130885-...

Feel free to contact me for information about the role and our department.

@kcl-spe.bsky.social @kingsqpe.bsky.social

5 months ago 21 22 0 4

📢 Final week to apply for the Swiss Chair in Federalism and Democracy. A key position supported by the Swiss Government for scholars working on federalism and democratic processes.

Deadline: 24 Nov 2025

Details: www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...

Online Application form: apps.eui.eu/Vacancies/Ca...

5 months ago 0 1 0 0
EJM - Econ Job Market

We're hiring a Full Prof in Economics (open-field) at the Econ dept in King's Business School. Come join us in central London - apply here: econjobmarket.org/positions/12... #Econsky 1/2

5 months ago 21 20 1 1

Interested in why public anti-immigrant sentiment is so geographically concentrated? Here's some work with @denis-cohen.bsky.social testing a new theory on how regional labour market risks and inter-regional migration shape long-term spatial polarisation. Just out in @bjpols.bsky.social 👇

5 months ago 19 9 0 0
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👋Welcome to the Barcelona Network of Political Science.

▶️We are here to promote research, strengthen ties between institutions, and support young researchers and students in developing their research careers.

5 months ago 12 7 1 2

Are university still a left-wing thing in Europe?

Unsure: HE is a hierarchical institution with egalitarian employees

I find that universities increasingly inculcate selfish career concerns for status while leaving universalist concerns for global justice unchanged

5 months ago 15 4 0 0
MER Migrant Electoral Rights dataset Suffrage is a central element of democracy. Over time, electoral rights have increasingly become available to migrants—both as non-citizen residents and as non-resident citizens. However, existing dat...

Migrant Electoral Rights Dataset (1960-2020)

📊 Link to dataset: hdl.handle.net/1814/93661

📕 Link to codebook: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...

💼 Link to 400 page documentation: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...

6 months ago 61 29 1 0

thanks a lot @eui-eu.bsky.social for lovely hosting and very useful critiques! had a really good time

6 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Please share this thread. It is important that political scientists, in Europe and across the world, understand why EPSS exists and why we are encouraging people to attend our inaugural conference, in Belfast next June.

8 months ago 114 74 1 1
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Academia is basically a collection of people who got lucky early on and mistook it for genius. doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

8 months ago 430 132 12 19
Abstract
The rise of populist right parties is well-studied, but little attention has been
given to how public service performance influences voter support. Given that public services are often the primary means through which citizens interact with the
state, we argue that declining public services can create grievances that increase
the appeal of populist right parties. Focusing on England’s National Health Service
(NHS), we combine administrative data on local health facility closures with panel
data on public preferences and voting intentions. Using a staggered difference-indifferences design, we find that closures reduce satisfaction with public services and
increase support for populist right parties. These effects are moderated by migrant
registrations at local health practices, highlighting the interaction between public
service performance and immigration concerns in fueling populist right support.
Our findings underscore the role of public service decline as a driver of support for
populist parties, especially in areas undergoing demographic change.

Abstract The rise of populist right parties is well-studied, but little attention has been given to how public service performance influences voter support. Given that public services are often the primary means through which citizens interact with the state, we argue that declining public services can create grievances that increase the appeal of populist right parties. Focusing on England’s National Health Service (NHS), we combine administrative data on local health facility closures with panel data on public preferences and voting intentions. Using a staggered difference-indifferences design, we find that closures reduce satisfaction with public services and increase support for populist right parties. These effects are moderated by migrant registrations at local health practices, highlighting the interaction between public service performance and immigration concerns in fueling populist right support. Our findings underscore the role of public service decline as a driver of support for populist parties, especially in areas undergoing demographic change.

Public Service Decline and Support for the Populist Right:

"Our findings underscore the role of public service decline as a driver of support for populist parties, especially in areas undergoing demographic change"

9 months ago 73 25 5 2

I've been working on something on this and here's a sneak peek of recent trends in Politics job adverts on jobs.ac.uk

Here's a scatterplot and (GAM) trendline showing that the number of advertised politics jobs has pretty much halved since 2021.

9 months ago 47 21 4 7

🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

🔗 epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧵

9 months ago 375 210 4 58
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My piece "The Neoclassical Theory of Aggregate Investment and its Criticisms" is now out

Neoclassical investment theory implicitly or explicitly underlies much formal or informal economic reasoning.

Here I offer a systematic perspective on its mechanisms & difficulties

doi.org/10.1080/0953...

9 months ago 4 1 0 0
More A than I: Testing for Large Language Model Plagiarism in Political Science | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core More A than I: Testing for Large Language Model Plagiarism in Political Science

Can't wait to see what people think when they delve into this one.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

10 months ago 10 1 3 2
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Divide and Lose One Reason Why Italy’s Progressives Lost the June 2025 Referendums

Together with @paugrau.bsky.social, we have just posted our first Substack, which is our quick take on the outcome of the labour rights and citizenship referendums in Italy on 8-9 June
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open.substack.com/pub/simonhix...

10 months ago 62 21 3 7

My book Democracy Under Strain is finally out, and I couldn’t be happier. 🥳 It’s been a long, challenging journey—but one that’s shaped me deeply as an academic. Here’s what it’s about 🧵 #DemocracyUnderStrain (1/11)

1 year ago 46 16 3 3
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When I worked in UK academia I recall hearing of a Japanese man who was baffled at how Britain had decided to run its universities like firms. “Why? Your universities are excellent and your firms are terrible.”

1 year ago 5450 1485 23 38

🚨🚨🚨Major job alert klaxon!!!🚨🚨🚨

In the Department of Political Economy @kcl-spe.bsky.social we are currently advertising for 3 permanent academic posts (2 Political Theory, 1 PPE)!

Details below. Happy to have an informal discussion with anyone interested.

Please share widely!!
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1 year ago 14 21 1 1

great cover😍

1 year ago 0 0 1 0