This is important when you think about rebuilding post-war #Ukraine and the defense effort now

1/ Migration between UA and PL is often framed as a story of crisis, pressure, and displacement. But it is also a story about skills, talent, and long-term economic strategy. In the new episode of Policy Implications, I spoke with Ivanna Kyliushyk about exactly that.

Link: tinyurl.com/2zz84p5r

Will Higher Inflation Expectations Force the Fed’s Hand? Despite a newly agreed-to ceasefire in the Iran war, the risks are rising that price-shocked consumers and businesses won't expect the inflation spike to be temporary.

Will higher inflation expectations force the Fed’s hand? @investopedia.com speaks with Olivier Coibion, co-author with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social of Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments:

New release from the Michigan Survey of Consumers for March 2026

#Inflation #expectations of household surge. The median 1-year-ahead increased to almost 5%.

One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20%

More there: www.sca.isr.umich.edu

Expectations Matter What people believe about the economy—and why it matters

The slides for "Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys & Experiments" (w/ Oli Coibion) are here: tinyurl.com/943xxc66

The book is available from the publisher (with a 30% discount; the code is P329)
press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

Amazon: www.amazon.com/Expectations...

Bottom line:

American households and firms expecting significantly higher inflation than Fed does. And average Americans are probably right.

p.s.
FWIW Inflation expectations are ahead of schedule relative to the 1970s

Making matters worse, this surge in expectations is likely to be met with a deafening silence from the Federal Reserve. A "wait&see" approach may feel neutral, but when inflation expectations are ↑, inaction allows real interest rates to ↓ —that is an accommodative, dovish stance, not a neutral one.

Those elevated expectations will put further upward pressure on wages and prices, fueling significantly more inflation than the Fed is currently projecting.

Our core argument: the surge in energy prices from the war in Iran will not only raise inflation directly through the usual channels but will also trigger a sharp rise in inflation expectations.

New EMPCT opinion piece with Olivier Coibion on the #inflation outlook.

As shown in the figure below, the current inflation trajectory is strikingly reminiscent of the late 1970s — and the implications are concerning.

#EconSky #oil #oilprice #gasoline

More here: tinyurl.com/ycym769x

Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

What people believe about the economy—and why it matters.

Expectations Matter by Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social is out now (19 May UK pub)!

Learn more: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

#Economics #Finance #ReadUP

You can buy it from the publisher too!

With a 30% discount. The code is P329

Our book is finally here!!

Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social & me with our advance copies

Grateful to everyone who helped along the way—colleagues, students, coauthors, & early readers who shaped the project at every stage

Official release tomorrow! tinyurl.com/385ak89u

#EconSky

Many thanks to @olhazadorozhna.bsky.social for the podcast!

The paper (commissioned by @cepr.org) is available here: tinyurl.com/yxe6ftnx

#UkrainianView #Ukraine #EconSky

Scott Bessent says that U.S. may unsanction the Iranian oil. "In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign."

1st unsanction Russian oil, now Iranian oil

what is next???

America’s war on Iran is a gift to Vladimir Putin Ukraine’s other allies need to limit the windfall to Moscow

‪
By lifting sanction on Russia, Trump is pouring fuel into the Russian war machine and makes the war longer and more deadly.

Terrible policy

#Ukraine #UkrainianView

www.ft.com/content/0fab...

Якою має бути економічна політика України?

Want an ultimate challenge in terms of macroeconomic stabilization?

#Ukraine can give you one

We have some ideas on macro strategy

Joint with @tderyugina.bsky.social & @ilonasolohub.bsky.social

#UkrainianView

epravda.com.ua/finances/eko...

Congratulations!!!

Russia blacklists UC Berkeley, leaving Russian internationals criminalized and confused Russian American professors and an expert in Russian foreign policy interviewed by The Daily Californian have said this legal vagueness is designed to license arbitrary persecution of Russian dissiden...

#UCBerkeley is sanctioned by #Russia...

We must be doing the right things

#UkrainianView
#Ukraine

www.dailycal.org/news/campus/...

Four Years On: The Russia-Ukraine War, with George Breslauer and Yuriy Gorodnichenko YouTube video by OLLI @Berkeley

The video is posted: www.youtube.com/watch?v=VidI...

Thanks again to #UCBerkeley #OLLI olli.berkeley.edu for doing this

Some convergence in our positions but still rather different views on the origins of this war

#UkrainianView #Ukraine

1/🎙️ New episode of Policy Implications!

I talk with @ekatovich.bsky.social about sanctions on RU oil and why their real impact may take years to appear.

🎧 Listen: tinyurl.com/cdjm8wkb

#EconSky #PoliSky #EconTwitter

US solution to oil shortages now?

Unsanction Russian oil!

Terrible decision

#Ukraine #UkrainianView

For the First Time, U.S. Sides With Russia and China in Ukraine Energy Dispute Washington opposed a resolution backed by many of its allies over the danger posed by attacks on Kyiv’s nuclear energy.

This is how sheer lunacy looks like...

The main point of the resolution is that attacks on Ukraine electrical substations and other energy infrastructure pose a direct threat to nuclear safety.

How can one not want to support it?
#Ukraine

www.wsj.com/world/for-th...

Iran’s Drones Cost a Fraction of the U.S. Weapons Shooting Them Down

Zelensky recently said that Russia attacked #Ukraine more than 57,000 Shahed drone

Iranian drone hits a high rise in Bahrain

Russia uses the same drones to attack #Ukraine every day and does the same hits of residential buildings in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Drinpro and many other cities

Zelensky: "RUS used 57K+ Shahed strike drones against #Ukraine. UKR never threatened Iran, but the Iranian regime chose to be an accomplice for Putin& supplied him with Shaheds(drones&technology).It is fair to give the Iranian people a chance to get rid of the terrorist regime"
tinyurl.com/3c9p2ha7

Four years of Ukraine's resilience - and SITE's continued commitment. Thank you for standing with Ukraine. With respect, Torbjörn Becker Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) Stockholm School of Economics

On Feb 24, 2026, marks 4 years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukraine’s courage and resilience endure. Supporting Ukraine isn’t only solidarity - it’s an investment in Europe’s security and stability. At SITE, we’ll keep providing rigorous, policy-relevant analysis. More of SITE: tr.ee/SHAKnh

Ukraine and the new economics of war Lessons from four years of war: it’s the economy, stupid

A new piece by @martinsandbu.ft.com

"Put all this together, and it’s not much of an exaggeration to say that Europe and #Ukraine are, economically, the much stronger side in this war. It is time to realise this, and press the victory home."

100%

a great subtitle too: "it’s the economy, stupid"

What’s next for Ukraine: Investment Ukraine will emerge from this war with enormous debt. The conventional wisdom treats that as an obstacle: investors weigh it before committing capital, and the burden slows the recovery before it star...

@cepr.org podcast with Maurice Obstfeld ( @piie.com and @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social ) and me about the reconstruction of #Ukraine

#UkrainianView #EconSky

cepr.org/multimedia/w...

UN GA vote on “Support for lasting peace in #Ukraine”

USA abstained. What a shame!