🚨🚨 New article: How much do the Swiss dislike fellow citizens with different political views? Benjamin Jansen & Alois Stutzer study affective polarization using split-ticket voting in parliamentary elections.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
@mariusbrulhart.bsky.social @kaufmanndani.bsky.social
"Elections, Right-Wing Populism, and Political-Economic Polarization: The Role of Institutions and Political Outsiders" by Valentina Gonzalez-Rostani.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Political communication research overwhelmingly relies on text. But parliamentary speech is multimodal! In our new @psrm.bsky.social article, Mathias Rask and I show that legislators also signal partisan conflict nonverbally— through changes in vocal pitch during floor speeches. 🧵 1/11 #polisky
Stupeflip - Hypnoflip Invasion 🇨🇵
And new paper out: Pleias 1.0: the First Family of Language Models Trained on Fully Open Data
How we train an open everything model on a new pretraining environment with releasable data (Common Corpus) with an open source framework (Nanotron from HuggingFace).
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
How much did Elon's takeover reshape Twitter/X? How did the partisan tilt of social media use change from 2020 to 2024?
The ANES 2024 data is out — and this thread answers all your burning questions! 🔥
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Ideas Have Consequences: The Impact of Law and Economics on American Justice,” by Ash (@elliottash.bsky.social), Chen, and Naidu: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
🌅📙 64.3
Do narcissistic leaders fuel political division? 🧠📊
These authors (🧵⬇️) find that when voters feel close to a leader with dark traits they become more polarized, disliking opposing parties even more. #AffectivePolarization #PoliticalPsychology
🔗https://buff.ly/ptbrrU6
Thrilled to see our paper published in the American Economic Review!! 👇👇👇
We show that candidates in US and French elections move to the center during the campaign, reflecting strategic adjustment to their opponents.
@aeajournals.bsky.social with R. Di Tella, R. Kotti and @clpennec.bsky.social (1/n)
An unpopular view: new diff-in-diff methods have been a setback for empirical work. I see an increased flow of papers that do 5 variants of them plus extensive torturing of parallel trends robustness to "prove" that a weak research design is solid. That effort could've been spent more productively
🚨NEW PAPER: Why are Members of Congress so extreme?
We conducted a 4-wave panel of thousands of voters in 27 districts during last year’s primary AND general elections to trace polarization’s roots
The results challenge conventional wisdom… and suggest lessons for parties🧵👇
@elliottash.bsky.social
Forthcoming in AER: Insights: "Web Search Personalization during the US 2020 Election" by Ulrich Matter and Roland Hodler. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Breaking: Pleias releases a new generation of small reasoning models for RAG and source synthesis. Pleias-RAG-350M and Pleias-RAG-1B come with built-in support for source citation, SOTA performance and an accuracy comparable to models ten times their size. huggingface.co/PleIAs/Pleia...
Elites’ violent rhetoric increases support for political violence among co-partisans in the public
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
I wrote my master's thesis under the name: "The Smell of Trouble: Natural Gas Dependence and Interstate Conflicts" 🤡
Prompted by news of prosecutors seeking death penalty for Luigi #Mangione, we share findings from a natural experiment based on his case.
We find that Mangione's arrest led to a small rise in support for #PoliticalViolence among Dems.
📝 Preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...
📊 Data & code: osf.io/y5mn3/
🚨New Working Paper:
The Value of Worker Rights in Collective Bargaining
w/ @elliottash.bsky.social , W. Bentley MacLeod & Suresh Naidu
We propose novel NLP methods applied to 30,000 collective bargaining agreements to quantify the value of worker rights.
👉 nber.org/papers/w33605
🧵1/7
Many feel that politics globally has become toxic and hostile over recent years.
But is this actually the case? And if so, who's to blame? What issues are driving toxicity?
We analyze 18M tweets from politicians in 17 countries to find out!
w/
@julianachueri.bsky.social
arxiv.org/pdf/2503.22411
J’invite les intéressés à lire la toute première étude scientifique attestant de la dérive idéologique de CNEWS, publiée dans le prestigieux Journal of Information Technology and Politics, et dans laquelle je démontre que les téléspectateurs de CNEWS sont plus radicaux encore que ceux de Fox News.
Just published in @jpube.bsky.social:
"How in-person conversations shape political polarization: Quasi-experimental evidence from a nationwide initiative"
By @ximengfang.bsky.social, Sven Heuser, & Lasse Stoetzer
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #econsky
“They said it could not be done”. We’re releasing Pleias 1.0, the first suite of models trained on open data (either permissibly licensed or uncopyrighted): Pleias-3b, Pleias-1b and Pleias-350m, all based on the two trillion tokens set from Common Corpus.
📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXo
The adverse effects of trade and globalization have become politically salient in a way that many of the other determinants of inequality have not. | Dimensions of Inequality: The IFS Deaton Review | academic.oup.com/ooec/article...
Posted this a few weeks ago over in Cacotopia. Including here in case people are interested in best practices to help researchers accurately, credibly, and ethically use Generative AI (GenAI) to enhance their experimental research:
ideas.repec.org/p/feb/artefa...
#EconBluesky
A two-panel figure illustrating the conditional effect of radical-right parties on voter turnout. The left panel, titled "Satisfaction w/ Democracy," shows two data points: 1. For non-radical-right party supporters, the effect is slightly negative (below zero) with a small error bar. 2. For radical-right party supporters, the effect is strongly positive (above zero) with a larger error bar, indicating greater variability. The right panel, titled "Trust in Politicians," also shows two data points: 1. For non-radical-right party supporters, the effect is negative (below zero) with a small error bar. 2. For radical-right party supporters, the effect is moderately positive (above zero) with a moderate error bar. Both panels share the y-axis labeled "Change_After_Radical-Right_Contestation," centered around zero. Error bars in both panels represent confidence intervals.
New study by @nickbichay.bsky.social
Radical-Right parties participating in elections disenchant and demobilize voters, endangering (not "correcting") democracy!
RR participation in elections is associated with lower(!) turnout.
But don't RR parties bring non-voters to the ballots? Not really.