RPTD FIXTURES EX INDIA (WEEK: 13 MAR - 20 MAR )
As of RPTD today (17-03-2026)
EX WCI: — 02
EX ECI: — 00

#Venezuela seeks to be a competitive supplier for Colombia with gas 25% cheaper...

Why are the Houthis quiet now?

There could be possible three reasons:

They must be,

1️⃣ Recovering from heavy US/Israel airstrikes earlier
2️⃣ Preserving forces for a longer war of attrition
3️⃣ Avoiding immediate retaliation while Iran is under pressure

In other words: looks strategic, not passive.

MRs are seeing the sharpest impact.

AG MR routes weakened significantly:

• TC17: WS380.7 (-9.29) → ~$33K/day
• TC12: WS244.7 (-20.94) → ~$14K/day

Operational disruptions are reducing cargo flow faster than vessel supply.

French Military Base Targeted

A French soldier was killed and several others wounded in a drone attack on a joint Peshmerga-French military base in Mahmur, northern Iraq, French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed.

Meanwhile, 3 #Aframax cargoes of #Libyan crude were also purchased for trial runs at HRRL Barmer, in addition to one trial cargo taken earlier in Q4-2025.

Even after these deals, ~3 Mbbls of Urals remain available in the spot market. Also 0.5 mbpd of Reliance contract of 10yrs with Rosneft present

This is a sharp shift from the early Ukraine-war phase when Russian crude traded at deep discounts (~-$22/bbl vs Brent ~2yrs ago).

Buyer split:
• Indian PSUs (IOC + HPCL + BPCL): ~9.7 Mbbls
• Reliance: ~9.2 Mbbls
• Nayara: ~6.5 Mbbls
• Others: ~5.92 Mbbls

#Indian #refiners purchased ~31.32 Mbbls of #Russian #crude but the pricing story has flipped.

Breakdown:

• 23.6 Mbbls Urals ($6/bbl premium to London Dated Brent)
• 5.3 Mbbls ESPO ($8/bbl premium)
• 2.42 Mbbls Varandey (~$4/bbl premium)

New #American #refinery backed by Indian investment... This is huge...

US oil stocks sent a subtle but important signal (be ready)...

#Crude stocks rose +3.48 Mn bbl w/w, but the real story sits inside the product complex. #Gasoline inventories fell −1.70 Mn bbl, while implied demand patterns are diverging sharply across fuels. This is not a typical shoulder-season.

#China didn’t just ramp up #crude imports, #methanol imports surged as well. Since the pandemic, volumes are up ~50% vs pre-COVID lvls. #Beijing appears to hv quietly building supply buffers, antcpating tighter markets & potential disruptions from rising #geopolitical instability

The real impact of today’s energy shocks won’t just be oil prices. It will reshape future fuels. Expect capital to pivot from #MEG to NAM, potentially redirecting ~$400Bn into alternate fuel and energy transition projects over the coming decade.
The investment map is shifting. 🌍

#VLCC pressure from the past 2wks is starting to shift to #Suezmax. Mar-26 Laycan fixtures already at 22, the highest all time (post covid). Expect 8-9 more #stems, plus 3–4 VLCC cargo splits moving to Smax. India is emerging as the key pivot after 6 Suezmax #fixtures last week.

Mojtaba #Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader, has been named as #Iran's new Supreme Leader. Mojtaba has long been active & considered the shadow power behind the regime, controlling key #IRGC appointments, overseeing intelligence operations.

#shipping #freight #CrudeOil #tanker #oott #Aframax #Suezmax #LR2 #LR1 #OPEC #VLCC

G7 #tankers still hauling ~25% of Russian exports despite proposed EU ban. #venezuelan crude flows to India near zero after peaking at ~108M barrels in 2019. #Freight costs are reshaping crude economics globally. Producers are feeling the pain; tanker owners are not.

🛢️ The crude tanker market is on fire:
#VLCC spot rates hit ~$200k/day — a new high. #BRAZIL #China freight surge crushing #Tupi #Crude differentials to all-time lows (-$6/b vs Dated #Brent). #Canadian heavy crude discounts widening sharply as #WCS Hardisty hits -$15/b vs #WTI

#Iran's real game isn't oil — it's Bitcoin. They mine BTC at ~$1,200 & sell at $65K. One of the highest hash rates on earth. 🧵Billions in #crypto sit in Ayatollah-linked accounts, invisible to sanctions. While you watch Hormuz, the real war is on-chain. 👀 #Iran #Bitcoin

#South #Korea Commitment
$100bn #LNG purchase plan from US + $350bn total investment reaffirmed. #MISC Shipping
Charter rates expected to improve in 2026 as new #liquefaction capacity ramps up.

There are around 300 million barrels of Russian and Iranian oil at sea, according to ship tracker Vortexa. Traders are struggling to find buyers—who have become hesitant as sanctions have piled up—particularly given the ample supply in global markets. WSJ

#US PADD 3 refiners were designed to process medium and heavy grades of #crude #oil, such as those produced in #Canada, Mexico, and #Venezuela. Years of changes in both Venezuela and $North #America have led to a significant decline in the amount of Venezuelan crude oil that U.S. refiners process.

#Venez #oil #prodn fallen by 70% over past 2 decades from m 3.1 mb/d in 2005 to 0.9 mb/d in 2024. Over 5yr (2020 to 2024), Venez completed only 190 new oil #wells (completed 1,560 in 2007 alone). The number of active #rigs in the country has fallen from a high of 221 in 2014 to 3 in 2024.

Bottom line: inventories aren’t screaming shortage, but they’re not insurance either. This is a market priced for sensitivity, not surplus.

Early-2026 inventories started high but drew fast. A reminder that headline stock builds can unwind quickly in a tight system. The green range says “buffer.” The lines say “fragile.” Small shocks can move prices when inventories hug the lower band.

US crude + product stocks (ex-SPR) in 2025 stayed below the 2015–24 avg most of the year. Tight balance, despite the optics of “comfortable” inventories

At ~1,286 Mbbls, stocks sit in the lower half of the historical range. The cushion looks thinner once refinery runs and exports normalize.

What happens when the VLCC spot market stops being about volume and starts being about control? open.substack.com/pub/shipping... #shipping #freight #CrudeOil #tanker #oott #Aframax #Suezmax #LR2 #LR1 #OPEC #VLCC #oott #tott

Iranian Uncertainty The Uncertainty….

open.substack.com/pub/shipping...

#shipping #freight #CrudeOil #tanker #oott #Aframax #Suezmax #LR2 #LR1 #OPEC #VLCC

#Refinery overbuild required for #tanker markets, from Saigal... @SaigalSeaTrade

I have marked my views in a #podcast... #oil #Geopolitics #gas #LNG

creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/...