"Neoconservative narratives of imperial regime change projected by Israel and the United States will do more to confirm the IRGC’s worldview than challenge it," writes @andreaskrieg.bsky.social on the group's role in the Israel/U.S.-Iran War.
My longer read on the flawed US/Israeli assumptions when fighting a networked militia with a state
"Israel and America are now at war with the largest militia network in the world — a network of networks engineered to endure attrition indefinitely"
#IRGC #Iran #Trump
dawnmena.org/america-is-b...
“The issue with the Strait of Hormuz is really not a military one. … It’s a market issue, and confidence cannot be restored by the military. Confidence can be restored through diplomacy only.” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
“For now, the Gulf feels abandoned by the US: asked to do diplomacy, punished for doing it, and left to absorb the blowback - again.”
"[The Gulf's] business model is ... built on connectivity: trade lanes, capital flows, data systems and energy logistics. Interrupt any of that, and you do not just dent growth; you puncture the very business model that the Gulf states have successfully built in recent decades."
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social on the Gulf's nightmare: "It is built on connectivity: trade lanes, capital flows, data systems and energy logistics. Interrupt any of that, and you do not just dent growth; you puncture the very business model the Gulf states have successfully built in recent decades."
»Realistischer ist ein langwieriger Konflikt mit Eskalationsspitzen und ruhigeren Phasen: eine intensive Anfangsphase, gefolgt von Abnutzungskämpfen mit geringerem Tempo, in denen der Iran versucht, den Druck auf Israel und die US-Partner im Golf aufrechtzuerhalten«, meint @andreaskrieg.bsky.social.
The info of #Iran ’s networked command structure I got from the arabdigest.org podcast with defence & security analyst & Gulf specialist @andreaskrieg.bsky.social.
The #US+ #Israel war against #Iran is upending security in the Gulf states & creating global anxiety & uncertainty.
1/
PS the actual podcast of @billlaw49.bsky.social & @andreaskrieg.bsky.social is: podcasts.apple.com/nl/podcast/a...
You can find more limited commentary from some of them here. @glcarlstrom.bsky.social @ibishblog.bsky.social @kdiwan.bsky.social @arashtehran.bsky.social @valinasr.bsky.social @kristianulrichsen.bsky.social @drhahellyer.bsky.social @andreaskrieg.bsky.social @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social etc
My take ✒️
"Israel is fighting Iran to the last Gulfie"
How the Gulf states became collateral damage in Israel's War and why strategic autonomy is required to neither become pawns in Israel's new "order" nor leave Iranian aggression unanswered
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gulf...
" #India is a country that doesn't want to choose sides. It does not want to be pushed into certain alignments or into a zero-sum game. And that is the sort of game Netanyahu is in. That does not necessarily align with Modi’s vision for India as a great power" #Israel
youtu.be/X_eyWhxxuFU
“With elections due later this year, Netanyahu has a clear incentive to project statesmanship and to argue that #Israel isn't diplomatically isolated and that it can still convene meaningful regional and extra-regional partnerships,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...
This is, unfortunately, true.
“Whoever you are speaking to at the moment across the Gulf, even including Bahrainis, they see the Emiratis as the odd one out and Saudi Arabia as the one that is on the right side of history,” @andreaskrieg.bsky.social told Amwaj.media
“Whoever you are speaking to at the moment across the Gulf, even including Bahrainis, they see the Emiratis as the odd one out and Saudi Arabia as the one that is on the right side of history,” Krieg told Amwaj.media.
amwaj.media/en/article/w...
Academia needs a reckoning about Epstein.
Not only in terms of the amount of lechery & sexual harassment that flies beneath the radar—and it’s a lot.
But also about the tendency, deeply embedded amongst university leaderships, to hire & kiss up to the criminally immoral.
My take on the #UAE's Brotherhood conspiracy theory and the far-Right:
"It is a dangerous attempt to shape discourse, influence attitudes, polarise constituencies, and ultimately subvert policymaking in the UK"
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/brit...
As Bibi arrives in DC:
"Now the #Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since October 7th and an #Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests."
www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-gul...
"The #UAE have a long history of delegating statecraft to surrogates and intermediaries, working through networks and creating interdependencies they can weaponize" #Libya #Sudan #Ethiopia #Somalia #Yemen
Listen here www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Hff...
"There is an agreement on a framework of a nuclear deal... Qatar and Oman believe that this can be a first step into something that in a first instance looks like the JCPOA 2.0 to which other elements can be added such as missiles. But it is tiny steps at the time"
youtu.be/3mZ1xHYJX1k
"The Saudis have a unique moment right now to lead the region, especially at a time when many actors feel increasingly alienated by the Emirates....the mindset and strategic culture of Abu Dhabi is fundamentally different. Under pressure, they push back — they don’t fold..."
youtu.be/bEBROI1f6NQ
"As @andreaskrieg.bsky.social from King’s College London, told Al Jazeera, this [Board of Peace] offers a “direct line to the White House” and “buys them insurance” against future exclusion."
www.the-independent.com/news/world/m...
"@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has described the #UAE’s regional network as an “axis of secessionists.”
“Abu Dhabi is comfortable operating below the threshold of formal statecraft, building influence through a web of intermediaries"
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social adds "inside #Iran, collective action remains largely leaderless and networked: Local mobilization, social ties, workplace dynamics, and university ecosystems produce bursts of coordinated protest without an integrated command structure"
www.dw.com/en/albania-w...
My piece for @aljazeera.com
✍️
"Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ #Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control"
Looking at scenarios for US military strikes on Iran
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has called the movement of the blocks a "tool for territorial engineering".
"By keeping the legal line on the map and the physical blocks hundreds of metres apart, Israel preserves the ability to shift where Gazans live, move and farm"
www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...
"I don’t think there’s such a thing as a decisive strike against Iran, because that would require a long, drawn-out military campaign — and I don’t think the Trump administration is ready for that.
youtu.be/KXWM4Sddjv0
As MbS enters the 3rd phase of his reign, #Saudi has a unique opportunity to build a KSA-centric regional order as it is pushing back against the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists
I look at what Riyadh needs to do to create a Pax Saudiana
#Sudan #Yemen #Somalia
amwaj.media/en/article/p...
“An Emirati ‘exit’ in uniform does not necessarily mean an exit in influence,” he said. “If Abu Dhabi judges Yemen remains central to its broader maritime and geo-economic posture, it will retain levers through partners, finance, logistics, and political sponsorship.” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
